1. Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Monitoring Implementation Plan Alan Lewitus NOAA/NOS/NCCOS Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research GCOOS Board of Directors Meeting 19 Aug 2008

2. 2 2000 CENR State-of- knowledge report 2001 Hypoxia Action Plan 2008 EPA Science Advisory Board Hypoxia Report 2008 Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan Management Driver: Action Plans for Reducing, Mitigating, and Controlling Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Future Rounds of Adaptive Management http://www.epa.gov/msbasin/taskforce/pdf/ghap2008.pdf

3. 3 2001 & 2008 Action Plan Coastal Goal Reduce the 5-year running average of the hypoxic zone areal extent to less than 5000 km 2 (1928 mi 2 ) by the year 2015... …(by reducing) the annual discharge of nitrogen into the Gulf. [2001] …(by reducing) the annual discharge of nitrogen and phosphorus into the Gulf. [2008]

4. Coastal Goal Metric

5. Need for Extension of Monitoring Action Plan (2001): “greatly expand the long-term monitoring program for the hypoxic zone, including greater temporal and spatial data collection, measurements of macro-nutrient and micronutrient concentrations, and hypoxia…” Monitoring, Modeling, and Research Workgroup Report (MMR, 2004): “…(monitoring) efforts need to be increased in frequency, at a minimum monthly from May through September. To develop a more complete understanding of ecosystem dynamics, selected sites should be monitored year- round. The spatial boundaries of some of these existing monitoring efforts should be expanded to collect data for defining boundary conditions in modeling efforts."

6. Summit on Gulf Hypoxic Zone Monitoring Summit on Long-Term Monitoring of the Gulf of Mexico Hypoxic Zone: Developing the Implementation Plan for an Operational Observation System http://www.ngi.msstate.edu/hypoxia/janconference.html

7. Summit Outcomes White Paper to Improve Monitoring of the Gulf of Mexico Hypoxic Zone in Support of the Hypoxia Task Force’s Coastal Goal White Paper: Compilation of a Hypoxia Data Inventory Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Monitoring Implementation Plan http://www.ngi.msstate.edu/hypoxia/whitePaper.html

8. 2008 Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan – Action 9: “Continue to reduce uncertainty about the relationship between N and P loads and the formation, extent, duration, and severity of the hypoxic zone, to best monitor progress toward, and inform adaptive management of the Coastal Goal” Need for Extension of Monitoring

9. A long-term and sustainable hypoxic zone monitoring program, with adequate spatial and temporal coverage. –Increase number of shelf-wide surveys with greater area surveyed –Additional in situ platform-based continuous monitoring devices (observing systems) –Mechanism to transition monitoring from a research to an operational framework –Improved predictive modeling capabilities Critical Needs for Action 9

10. Coastal Goal Metric Mid-summer Annual Assessment of Hypoxic Zone Areal Extent Long-Term Average Action Plan Goal Dead Zone Area (sq mi) Data Source: NOAA/N. Rabalais, LUMCON 5-Year Average

11. Management Drivers Priority 1 (Core System Requirements) Provide sufficient monitoring data to ensure that management is adequately informed in efforts to achieve the Coastal Goal of the Action Plan

12. Management Drivers Priority 2 Assess annual changes in the magnitude, seasonality, duration, and distribution of hypoxia, and relate these to management activities that affect nutrient loading and other influences on hypoxia

13. Management Drivers Priority 3 Provide adequate data for predictive models to develop accurate forecasts of hypoxia given alternative management targets for nutrient reduction and alternative scenarios of climate change

14. Management Drivers Priority 3 (continued) Determine the relationship between hypoxic zone magnitude, timing, and distribution, and the distribution, production, and health of ecologically and commercially important finfish and shellfish [Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan Action 5]

15. Core System Requirements Extend spatial coverage of shelf-wide surveys Include hypoxic volume measurements on shelf-wide surveys Increase number of shelf-wide surveys Fill in temporal gaps of shelf-wide surveys with cross- shelf transects Add deployments of AUVs with dissolved oxygen sensors Dissemination of relevant data and findings to management community Archival of the data in NODC

16. Transect C Transect F * * * * * * * * C6C/CSI-6 CSI-9 C D System Requirement: Extend spatial coverage of shelf-wide surveys T S

17. Local, MissR or Pearl R water some Mobile Bay on E MissR or PearlR water Miss R water ● USM 3M01

18. System Requirement: Increase number of surveys Currently: one mid-summer shelf-wide survey monthly sampling at Transect C south of Terrebonne Bay, and bimonthly sampling at Transect F off the Atchafalaya River (11 cruises/year) Implementation Plan: 8 surveys/year (Apr, May, Jun, Jul (2), Aug (2), Sep) Maintain current design for transects

19. Pilot study – proof of concept for application of dissolved oxygen sensor System Requirement: Add deployments of AUVs

20. System Requirement: Create a portal to maximize accessibility to, and exchange of, hypoxia data Expand Hypoxia Watch website to host national hypoxia observations Improve discovery, access, transport, and archive of data Data aggregate from sensor network – connect to CZRM Website geospatial mapping capability

21. System Requirements: Outreach program Maintain Gulf Hypoxia Monitoring Stakeholder Committee (GHMSC) and promote coordination through workshops Maintain GHMSC website Coordinate outreach activities between GHMSC and Hypoxia Task Force, GOMA, GCOOS, etc. outreach committees Promote mechanisms for increasing awareness of public/stakeholders Promote mechanisms for dissemination findings and data to managers

22. Implementation Plan Committees Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Monitoring Stakeholder Committee Joe Stinus (NOAA), ChairAnn Jochens (TAMU) Scott Phipps (AL DCNR)Charles Kovach (FL DEP) Dugan Sabins (LA DEQ)Kris Pintado (LA DEQ) Gregory DuCote (LA DNR)Henry Folmar (MS DEQ) Mark Fisher (TX CEQ)Ed Buskey (U. Texas) http://www.ncddc.noaa.gov/activities/gulf-hypoxia-stakeholders/view

23. Priority 2: System requirements needed to assess annual changes in hypoxia, and relate these to management activities that affect nutrient loading and other influences on hypoxia Maintain current observation systems and increase number of observation systems Outfit existing observing systems with dissolved oxygen sensors

24. Tier 2 System Requirements Increase number of observing systems Frequency of mid-summer bottom-water hypoxia, 1985-2002 LUMCON/LSU WAVCIS/BIO2 LUMCON/LSU potential sites TAMU site USM site = USM3 Suggested additional sites Terrebonne Bay Atchafalaya RL.Calcasieu Mississippi R Sabine L. >75% >50% >25% <25% 50 km Terrebonne Bay Atchafalaya RL.Calcasieu Mississippi R Sabine L. >75% >50% >25% <25% >75% >50% >25% <25% 50 km Transect C Transect A 14 Transect F Frequency of mid-summer bottom-water hypoxia, 1985-2002 LUMCON/LSU WAVCIS/BIO2 LUMCON/LSU potential sites TAMU site USM site = USM3 Suggested additional sites Terrebonne Bay Atchafalaya RL.Calcasieu Mississippi R Sabine L. >75% >50% >25% <25% 50 km Terrebonne Bay Atchafalaya RL.Calcasieu Mississippi R Sabine L. >75% >50% >25% <25% >75% >50% >25% <25% 50 km Transect C Transect A 14 Transect F Terrebonne Bay Atchafalaya RL.Calcasieu Mississippi R Sabine L. >75% >50% >25% <25% 50 km Terrebonne Bay Atchafalaya RL.Calcasieu Mississippi R Sabine L. >75% >50% >25% <25% >75% >50% >25% <25% 50 km Transect C Transect A 14 Transect F

25. Add 2 Buoys East of Mississippi River

26. System Requirements – Priority 3: Improve understanding of causes and impacts of hypoxic zone On survey cruises, AUV deployments, observing systems, and from remote sensing (satellite imagery), collection of physical, chemical, and biological data that support models determining causes of hypoxia. Increase number of USGS fixed-site monitoring stations in lower basin, and include nitrate sensors. Predictive model development on causes and impacts (including bioeconomic model). Benthic condition index coupled with SEAMAP groundfish survey data.

27. Costs – Priority 1 (Core) System Requirements – expand spatial and temporal coverage of shelf-wide surveys, include hypoxic volume: CurrentlyFY10 Cost/survey$158K$208K # surveys/year X 1 X 8 Annual cost$158K$1,664K

28. Costs – Priority 1 (Core) System Requirements – expand spatial and temporal coverage of shelf-wide surveys, include hypoxic volume: CurrentlyFY10 Cost/survey$158K$208K # surveys/year X 1 X 8 Annual cost$158K$1,664K

29. Costs – Priority 1 (Core) System Requirement – maintain cross-shelf transects: CurrentlyFY10 Cost/cruise$13.5K$13.5K # cruises/year X 11 X 10 Annual cost$148.5K$135K

30. Costs – Priority 1 (Core) System Requirement – Add deployments of AUVs with dissolved oxygen sensors: Currently none deployed; estimated cost of proof of concept pilot study (including purchase of AUV) is $250K for FY10

31. Costs – Priority 1 (Core) System Requirement – Create a portal to maximize accessibility to, and exchange of, hypoxia data: Five FTEs (4 NCDDC, 1 LUMCON) needed for total of $700k/year.

32. Costs – Priority 1 (Core) System Requirement – Outreach program to promote effective dissemination of information and data to managers and communications to increase awareness of hypoxia Gulf Hypoxia Monitoring Stakeholder Committee (GHMSC) meeting and workshops = $250K; Coordinator of GHMSC education and outreach activities = 1 FTE @ $150K. Total for FY10: $400K

33. Total FY10 Costs – Priority 1 (Core) Shelf-wide surveys: $1,664K Cross-shelf transects: $135K AUV pilot study: $250K Data management: $700K Outreach: $400K TOTAL: $3,149K

34. Costs – Priority 2 System Requirements – maintain and expand observing systems: CurrentFY10FY11FY12FY13FY14 # Sys.7911131313 Mainten.$875$875$1,125$1,375$1,625$1,625 New sys.n/a$600$600$600n/an/a Total$875$1,375$1,725$1,975$1,625$1,625

35. Priority 3: System requirements needed to Improve understanding of causes and impacts of hypoxic zone Total FY10 Costs = $2.25M

36. Implementation Plan Committees Steering CommitteeTechnical Committee Alan Lewitus (NOAA), co-chairJim Ammerman (Rutgers) Nancy Rabalais (LUMCON), co-chairBob Arnone (NRL) Phil Bass (EPA)Brenda Babin (LUMCON) Russ Beard (NOAA)Charlie Crawford (USGS) Rick Greene (EPA)Steve DiMarco (TAMU) Ann Jochens (TAMU)Jim Hagy (EPA) Steve Lohrenz (USM)Sharon Mesick (NOAA) David Shaw (MSU)Rich Patchen (NOAA) Janice Ward (USGS)Nancy Rabalais (LUMCON) Dave Whitall (NOAA)