1. Peak oil, climate change and a world beyond oil Woking LA21 HG Wells Centre 29 September 2010 David Strahan www.odac-info.org

2. Why they call it peak oil Source: ASPO

3. Source: UKERC, DECC Why oil peaks UK North Sea oil production by field

4. ● Oil supplies 95% transport energy ● Agriculture: producing 1 calorie of food requires 10 calories of fossil energy. ● Oil and gas provide all petrochemicals and lubricants ● Oil drives gas and power prices ● Oil price spikes cause recessions Why it matters

5. Peak oil and climate change Source data: IEA WEO 2009 28bn tCO2 2007 CO2 emissions by sector

6. The primacy of oil Source data: IEA Renewables Data, 2009 12026 Mtoe, 2007 Global primary energy by fuel

7. Where the oil goes Source data: ITPOES, 2010 85m barrels / day Oil use by function

8. Oil producers (98)

9. Post peak oil producers (64)

10. Source: IHS Energy; Groppe, Long & Littell Couldn’t we find some more?

11. Non-conventionals slow Tar sands output 2035: 6.3 mb/d ? Growth in the Canadian Oil Sands, IHS CERA 2009 Conventional depletion to 2030: 60 mb/d Global Oil Depletion, UKERC, 2009

12. Sadad al-Huseini2004 Kenneth Deffeyes 2005 Bank Macquarie 2009 Colin Campbell 2010 Petrobras 2010 ITPOES2014 Total2015 Douglas-Westwood2015 PFC Energy 2020 UKERC ‘significant risk’ pre-2020 Shell2020s IEA2020-30 We’re all peakists now….

13. Are we there yet? Source: Energyquote

14. ● Oil price volatility, rising spikes ● Serial recessions ● Shrinking fuel supply ● Short term outages – 2000 revisited? ● Sooner than climate change! Impacts

15. ● ‘1 st generation’: food crops In Europe/US, 5% road fuel = 20% cropland (IEA) ● ‘2 nd generation’: woody biomass World transport fuel demand = land area of China (Strahan) ● Not low carbon! Biofuels inadequate

16. Source: BMW Hydrogen wasteful

17. BEV potential massive Source: SustainAbility

18. Two birds, one stone Source data: IEA WEO 2009 28bn tCO2 2007 CO2 emissions by sector

19. Sources: NSCA, DfT Biomethane could provide 16% UK transport fuel (NSCA, 2006) Public transport consumes <5% Large vehicles - biogas

20. ● Decarbonize electricity supply ● Electrify ground transport and heat ● Biogas for heavy transport ● Demand reduction ● Carbon pricing How to reach a world beyond oil

21. “This book should be compulsory reading in government in this and every other oil importing country.” Richard Hardman CBE, former head of E&P, Amerada Hess “…a really good and informative read on a topic that affects us all.” Lord Oxburgh, former chairman of Shell “This important and easily-read book is the first I've seen which presents the vital technical data accurately and intelligibly.” Jeremy Gilbert, former Chief Petroleum Engineer, BP “A well written exposition of the peak oil case.” Ed Crooks, Energy Editor, Financial Times

22. Is Woking CHP approach the answer?

24. Impact of Woking approach Gas use efficiency doubled? Gas consumption cut by c30% 82% electricity self generated: 71% gas fired CHP 11% renewables

25. Drawbacks of Woking CHP approach - Increased gas dependency - Gas shocks, price volatility - Inflexibility: harder to balance renewable generation – Danish example - CHP displaces renewables, locks in emissions - Biogas cannot replace natural gas: all UK arable land would produce less than half the necessary biogas – even if demand cut by 30% (Strahan)

26. Intermittency is solvable West Denmark wind vs demand, 25% wind energy (Jan 2008) West Denmark wind vs demand, 50% wind energy Source: Danish Technological Institute

27. 100% renewable supergrid? Source data: Mainstream Renewables

28. Does it have to cost the earth? Power investment to 2030 European/N Africa supergrid: € 1.5 trn (Czisch) (= €0.047 / kWh) BAU Europe $2.4 trn (IEA WEO 2009) BAU global power sector $13.7 trn (IEA WEO 2009)

29. “This book should be compulsory reading in government in this and every other oil importing country.” Richard Hardman CBE, former head of E&P, Amerada Hess “…a really good and informative read on a topic that affects us all.” Lord Oxburgh, former chairman of Shell “This important and easily-read book is the first I've seen which presents the vital technical data accurately and intelligibly.” Jeremy Gilbert, former Chief Petroleum Engineer, BP “A well written exposition of the peak oil case.” Ed Crooks, Energy Editor, Financial Times

30. Aren’t we finding lots more oil? Giant oil find by BP reopens debate about oil supplies BG's Brazilian oil find will 'dwarf' BP's strike in the US Gulf Coast Guardian, 2 September 2009 Guardian, 9 September 2009