1. p r o p o l i s
Planning and Research of Policies for Land Use and Transport for Increasing Urban Sustainability
Fifth Framework Programme
Thematic Programme:
Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development
Key Action:
City of Tomorrow and Cultural Heritage

2. WEBSITES http://www.wspgroup.fi/lt/propolis/

3. The Consortium Scientific Officer of DG Research
LT LT Consultants Ltd, Finland
Co-ordinator
IRPUD Universität Dortmund, Institut für Raumplanung, Germany
S&W Spiekermann & Wegener, Urban and Regional Research, Germany, Subcontractor to IRPUD
ME&P Marcial Echenique and Partners, UK
UCL University College London, Institution incorporated by Royal Charter, UK
TRT TRT Trasporti e Territorio, Italy
MECSA Marcial Echenique y Compañía S.A., Spain
STR STRATEC S.A., Belgium
Scientific Officer of DG Research
Dr. Eric Ponthieu,
European Commission

4. Structure of the presentation
The objectives
The case cities
The PROPOLIS approach
The indicators
The tools
The policies
Evaluation of policy options
Inercity comparisons
Conclusions, recommendations and further work

5. Objectives
The objective of PROPOLIS is to research, develop and test integrated land use and transport policies, tools and comprehensive assessment methodologies in order to define sustainable long term urban strategies and to demonstrate their effects in European cities by:
- developing further the theory of urban transport and land use systems and enhancing existing planning and assessment methodologies
- executing a policy testing process in 7 European urban regions, by analysing the test results and by aiming at generalised conclusions
- identifying policy packages that are likely to achieve the environmental goals without compromising economic efficiency and social sustainability
- establishing close contacts with policy and decision makers and users of the system and by adopting an effective dissemination and exploitation programme.

6. Objectives: What are the current trends - what do we try to achieve?
Sustainability
PROPOLIS goal
Continuation of
existing policies
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Do nothing
Time
2000
2020

7. The PROPOLIS case cities

8. Case Cities: The settlement structure and population of the case city regions
Helsinki 0.9
Dortmund 2,5
Inverness 0,1
Naples 3,0
Vicenza 0,8
Bilbao 1,1
Brussels 2,9

10. The PROPOLIS approach to sustainability
Institutional framework
Environmental
sustainability
Economic
efficiency
Social
Comprehensive
For a city to be sustainable it needs to use resources in an efficient and equitable way within the carrying capacities of the environmental and social systems it is dependent on.
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11. The PROPOLIS approach, process and system

13. INDICATORS are used to measure the three dimensions of sustainability
- Conditions for selecting indicators:
Relevance. PROPOLIS can only concentrate on the most relevant indicators
Policy sensitiveness. Only indicators that are sensitive to the policies to be tested are of interest
Predictability. A lot of indicators are suitable for monitoring but for the PROPOLIS approach it is essential that the indicator values can be forecast into the future. This condition leaves a lot of indicators out of the scope of PROPOLIS
From the evaluation point of view, the indicators should be independent and measure different aspects of sustainability
They should also follow the impact chain as far as possible, for example, instead of measuring noise levels they should rather measure exposure to noise
Concerning the social indicators PROPOLIS can only try to measure the objective conditions of social environment whereas the subjective dimension of social welfare is left out of the scope.
Finally, the indicators should be selected so that each of the city models should be able to produce values for them.

14. The indicator themes are:
ENVIRONMENTAL
Global climate change
Air pollution
Consumption of natural sources
Environmental quality
SOCIAL
Health
Equity
Opportunities
Accessibility and traffic
ECONOMIC
Total net benefit from transport

15. Environmental indicators
Global climate change
Greenhouse gases from transport
Air pollution
Acidifying gases from transport
Volatile organic compounds from transport
Consumption of natural sources
Consumption of mineral oil products, transport
Land coverage
Need for additional new construction
Environmental quality
Fragmentation of open space
Quality of open space

16. Social indicators Health Equity
Exposure to particulate matter from transport in the living environment
Exposure to nitrogen dioxide from transport in the living environment
Exposure to traffic noise
Traffic deaths
Traffic injuries
Equity
Justice of distribution of economic benefits
Justice of exposure to particulates
Justice of exposure to nitrogen dioxides
Justice of exposure to noise
Segregation

17. Social indicators Opportunities Accessibility Housing standard
Vitality of city centre
Vitality of surrounding region
Productivity gain from land use
Accessibility
Total time spent in traffic
Level of service of public transport and slow modes
Accessibility to city centre
Accessibility to services
Accessibility to open space

18. Economic indicators Transport user benefits
Transport operator benefits
Government benefits from transport
Transport investment costs
Transport external accidents costs
Transport external emissions costs
Transport external greenhouse gases
Transport external noise costs
Economic index: total savings €/inhabitant (NPV)

24. 3 Types of Land Use and Transport Models are used to predict long term changes in the transport and land use systems.
Pricing policy, car costs up by 75%. Difference in the number of inhabitants and employment compared with the Reference Scenario.

32. Tools: Model inputs and outputs are harmonised for harmonised results18
Aggregated links
links 49
HELSINKI
MOTORWAY
MAJOR URBAN ROAD
OTHER ROADS
RAILWAY SERVICE
METRO SERVICE
RAILWAY TRACK
METRO TRACK
BUS AND TRAM
BUS AND TRAM LINES
CAR PARK/ACCESS
TRAIN & BUS ACCESS/WAIT
FERRY SERVICE
WALK
INTRAZONAL
links
NAPLES 14 19
links
BILBAO 27
links
VICENZA 19
links
INVERNESS 19
links
BRUSSELS 17
links
DORTMUND

35. Tools: GIS-tools are used to improve the spatial disaggregation
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Raster Module: Quality of open space

36. Tools: GIS applications - exposure to noise
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37. Tools: Analysis tools are used to identify short and long term effects

38. Tools: Illustration methods are important instruments when communicating with the public
IRPUD

41. Tools: Economic evaluations are made in a special module
TRT

42. POLICIES: What are the instruments - what types of policies are addressed?
Infrastructure investments: rail, road, bus
Land use strategies, theories
Pricing policies (tolls, congestion, fuel, parking)
Public transport policies (fares, speeds, service)
Regulatory policies (speeds, parking, land use restrictions etc.)
Policy combinations
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43. POLICIES: Policy runs implemented in all case cities

45. Evaluation of indicator sets, the USE-IT evaluation structure

46. USE-IT evaluation output after the indicators’ weighting process

47. Policy comparisons using indicators and indices

48. Evaluation: Problems to be faced
What are the socio-economic footprints?
Conflicting short and long term effects
Policy combinations - cumulative or neutralising effects
Mitigation of negative side effects
Conflicting goals - is there an optimum?
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49. EVALUATION PROBLEMS:. -. How to balance between conflicting goals. -
EVALUATION PROBLEMS: - How to balance between conflicting goals? - Is there an optimum? - Can all dimensions of sustainability be improved at the same time?

50. Intercity comparisons

51. Development of environmental and social sustainability of the Reference Scenarios in PROPOLIS case cities (2021=1,0)

52. Selected key indicators’ changes in key policies by case city (Policy x 2021 versus Reference Scenario 2021)

53. Selected key indicators’ changes in key policies by case city (Policy x 2021 versus Reference Scenario 2021)

54. Selected key indicators’ changes in key policies by case city (Policy x 2021 versus Reference Scenario 2021)

55. Selected key indicators’ changes in key policies by case city (Policy x 2021 versus Reference Scenario 2021)

56. Selected key indicators’ changes in key policies by case city (Policy x 2021 versus Reference Scenario 2021)

57. Selected key indicators’ changes in key policies by case city (Policy x 2021 versus Reference Scenario 2021)

58. Intercity comparisons of key policies by case city

59. General conclusions and recommendations, Further work

60. Conclusions - the approach
PROPOLIS has maintained and further developed the general comprehensive approach and the methodologies, originally developed in the SPARTACUS project, for studying sustainable urban policies.
The PROPOLIS system produces large amounts of information, but it also makes possible a drastic stepwise aggregation of the data—down to three sustainability index values per policy based on the preferences of the user or client of the system. In this way also the transparency of the system is maintained.
Theoretical, methodological and data limitations mean that some care is required in the interpretation of the results. In addition, any policy should always be examined in relation to the local conditions before planning its implementation. Despite these reservations many of the results in different types of cities, in different cultures and achieved using different types of models point in the same direction, are understandable and confirm the underlying theoretical considerations, thus making the conclusions more reliable.

61. Conclusions - results and recommendations
The results show that the environmental sustainability deteriorates in all case cities compared with the current situation if no actions are taken and even if city specific reference scenarios, including local investment programmes, are adopted. This is mainly due to the deteriorating global climate change and the environmental quality indicators as well as the increased consumption of natural resources. Air quality indicators may improve together with the assumed future improvements of the car fleet. Also the social index tends to deteriorate.
The aim of PROPOLIS was to find policies that could, in an ideal case, simultaneously improve all dimensions of sustainability compared with the reference solution and, if possible, even improve the current level of sustainability. This goal was reached in most of the case cities using a same type of approach. This indicates that the approach could work in other European cities, as well, and that the results could thus be transferable.

62. Conclusions - results and recommendations
The local investment plans, normally consisting of an investment programme for both public transport and road investments, performed in the right direction. However, they were not enough to maintain the current level of sustainability. Investment programmes should be designed to be consistent with the general goals set for the transport-land use system.
Regulating car speed policies had positive effects on traffic accidents, as intended, but they were not enough to compensate the effects of the worsening opportunity, accessibility and air pollution related indicators.
Different types of individual land use policies did not produce significant positive effects.
Different car pricing methods were able to produce positive results. However, their effects on land use have to be separately assessed.
Also the tested public transport policies, increasing speed and service and reducing fares, worked well. In most cases they were environmentally, socially and economically feasible. However, also here special attention has to be paid to the land use effects.

63. Conclusions - results and recommendations
Best results are achieved by using policy combinations, i.e. push and pull measures consisting of car pricing policies and simultaneous improvements of public transport through reduced fares and better speed and service. They produce cumulative positive results and the negative land use effects of the individual policies can be avoided or mitigated.
Adopting the above line of actions leads in the PROPOLIS case cities to a
15-20% reduction in CO2 emissions,
8-17% reduction in traffic accidents and
reductions in exposure to noise, pollutants and the total time spent in traffic
improved accessibility to the city centre and services
socio-economic benefits of 1000 – 3000 euro/inhabitant (net present value)
The results can be further improved by adopting supporting land use policies and by finding local optimum levels for the pricing actions

64. Conclusions - results and recommendations
A good urban policy consists of co-ordinated elements that work together to produce cumulative long-term effects that attain a balanced set of environmental, social and economic goals. These elements may include:
Combination of pricing policies directed at car users, with differentiation between peak and other hours as well as congested and non-congested areas, with an appropriate level of pricing of public transport fares
Investment programmes supporting the changes in demand caused by the above policies and especially responding to the increased demand for better public transport speed and service
A land use plan supporting the new need for people to live near central areas, in satellite cities or along well served public transport corridors and the people’s increased need and opportunity to use public transport

65. Conclusions - further work
The main concept for further development builds on the premises that urban transport and land use form one integrated environmental, social and economic system that interacts with the surrounding region without a clear border.
Theoretical research is still needed to better understand the reciprocal economic flows between land use activities and transport systems.
Similarly, more research is needed to better understand and model the interaction between environmental quality and land use.
More efficient use of GIS and, in particular, a more radical move towards micro-simulation models would bring several benefits.
The indicator system associated with the transport and land use modelling framework should be further developed in order to include additional important social and environmental indicators.

66. Conclusions - further work
Real-life tests with authentic audiences should be made with the assessment system.
More research is needed to define the optimum method and level of pricing policies and especially for their combinations, to carefully analyse the negative side effects of the pricing policies and, finally, to determine suitable countermeasures to mitigate these side effects.
The PROPOLIS system is tested and operational and could be used for analysing a wider set of policies in the seven case cities when searching for new and more effective measures and especially for more complex policy combinations.

67. What are the socio-economic effects?
The new innovative policies are likely to add to:
More safe and healthy environment
More efficient economy
Fair and equitable distribution of effects
And...
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68. ...Improve the Quality of Life in the City of Tomorrow
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69. Thank you for your attention!
LT LT Consultants Ltd, Finland, Co-ordinator
IRPUD Universität Dortmund, Institut für Raumplanung, Germany
S&W Spiekermann & Wegener, Urban and Regional Research, Germany, Subcontractor to IRPUD
ME&P Marcial Echenique and Partners, UK
UCL University College London, Institution incorporated by Royal Charter, UK
TRT TRT Trasporti e Territorio, Italy
MECSA Marcial Echenique y Compañía S.A., Spain
STR STRATEC S.A., Belgium
Kari Lautso
PROPOLIS Co-ordinator