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The Earth in 2050. Climate change – will humanity follow the Polar Bear and the Great Barrier Reef?

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Presentation on theme: "The Earth in 2050. Climate change – will humanity follow the Polar Bear and the Great Barrier Reef?"— Presentation transcript:

1 The Earth in 2050. Climate change – will humanity follow the Polar Bear and the Great Barrier Reef?

2 Global Warming – the measurements Global surface air temperature

3 Pattern of change

4 Local Change No data

5 Global Warming – context over last 1000 years Global surface air temperature reconstructions over the last millennium

6 …. And longer

7 Other changes Arctic sea-ice extent

8 The Climate System

9 (Naturally)

10 The Climate System (anthropogenically)

11 Solar variability Relative Sunspot number Solar Constant (scaled to satellite observation)

12 Volcanic Record from Greenland Ice Core

13 Monthly average atmospheric CO 2 (Mauna Loa observatory, Hawaii) Atmospheric gases Monthly average values of atmospheric methane, California

14 The Greenhouse Effect

15 Land Cover Post-glacial maximum forest cover (similar to pre-industrial) Current forest cover

16 Model “hindcast” of climate change since 1890

17 Norway USA France UK Brazil Russia India China Wealth and energy consumption are related- as individuals get richer their lifestyles have increased energy demand.

18 Future Global Temperature?

19 And Rainfall

20 Future Global Temperature? A2 B2

21 Future Global Temperature? Scenario CO 2 Even eventual CO 2 decreases lead to global warming

22 The regional picture in 2070- 2100 compared to 1961-90 Annual mean temperature change averaged across all models (colour; o C) Range of uncertainty (blue line; o C) Range/(standard deviation) (green)

23 Polar Bears in 2050? Depend on sea-ice for hunting seals and land for winter dens There could be no summer sea-ice by 2050 Interval of post-den starvation gets longer – is it sustainable?

24 Great Barrier Reef in 2050? Major bleachings (coral dieback) have occurred every few years during periods of high sea temperature A permanent temperature rise of 1-2 o C could kill the coral permanently 2002

25 The UK in 2100? Very Likely ~ 2-4 o C warmer Very Likely 2-7% wetter, concentrated in stormier autumn and winter Very Likely a sea level rise of 0.11-0.77 m Very Likely a rise in oceanic pH But less warming than similar latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere because of a predicted slowdown in the Gulf Stream, which has a very small probability of being abrupt

26 Global warming at the end of the last glaciation was the spark for civilisation But facing unprecedentedly rapid change, with a global population perhaps 1000 times greater Predictions will improve – next IPCC report out this month! But some change is now inevitable so the challenge is to mitigate change and adapt


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