1. The Culture War?

2. Questions for today Are we a polarized electorate? Arguments for the existence of polarization? Arguments against the existence of polarization?

3. What does polarization mean?

4. Ideology What do liberals believe? What do conservatives believe?

5. Are we a polarized electorate? Yes… Safe states

6. Red and Blue States http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

7. Are we a polarized electorate? Yes… Safe states Safe congressional districts Rural/urban divide

8. Presidential Election 2008, by county http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

10. Are we a polarized electorate? Yes… Safe states Safe congressional districts Rural/urban divide Religious/non-religious divide

11. Religion In 1992: –Committed mainline Protestant: 17% more R than D –Nominal mainline Protestant 10% more R –Committed evangelical Protestant 3% more R –Nominal evangelical Protestant 20% more D –Committed Catholic 31% more D –Nominal Catholic 28% more D –Jewish 64% more D –Non-religious 18% more D

12. Are we a polarized electorate? Yes… Safe states Safe congressional districts Rural/urban divide Religious/non-religious divide Gender divide

13. Gender In 1992: –Male: 1% more D than R –Female:16% more D than R In 2008: –Male: 1% more D than R –Female:13% more D than R –Gender Gap in Party ID: 12%

14. Are we a polarized electorate? No… The electorate is not more polarized

15. 2008 Presidential election Color indicates percent R or D http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

16. Resizing counties by population… http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

17. Political inclinations

18. Issue positions

19. More issue positions

20. Moral values

21. Are we a polarized electorate? No… The electorate is not more polarized Our electoral choices are just more polarized –Candidates –Officeholders

22. Why have elites become more polarized?

23. Why are elites more polarized now? Rise of purists/decline of professionals Civil service (Closed) Primaries Redistricting Realignment of the South Media? The internet?

24. Is it really just the elites? Pennsylvania: blue state where the electorate is really moderate? Or big state with “Pittsburgh in the west, Philadelphia in the East, and Alabama in the middle?” Rush’s audience: the elite?