1. Ozone Formation Kristen Keenan Erzsebet Pocsi

2. “BAD” Ozone Reaction with N0x (nitrogen oxides): Reaction with N0x (nitrogen oxides):  N02 + O2  O3 + NO this reaction requires sunlight Reaction with VOCs (volatile organic carbons): Reaction with VOCs (volatile organic carbons):  VOCs + NO  NO then  N02 + O2  O3 + NOthis reaction requires sunlight

3. Health Effects Shortness of breath Shortness of breath Dry cough Dry cough Pain when taking a deep breath Pain when taking a deep breath Tightness of chest Tightness of chest Wheezing Wheezing Nausea Nausea Trigger asthma Trigger asthma Aggravate respiratory illnesses Aggravate respiratory illnesses

4. Calibration of Simplified Model

5. AQI Probability Distribution for Saint-Louis Probability = count of O 3 AQI > 100 total days observed total days observed P =.132 = 52 P =.132 = 52 395 395

6. AQI’s Probability Distribution Know: Know:  Recorded AQIs  Recorded weather on each corresponding day Correlate climate and AQI Correlate climate and AQI Knowing climate can predict AQI Knowing climate can predict AQI