Integrated Assessment and Waterwise for Adaptive Management

Integrated Assessment and Waterwise for Adaptive Management
Train the Trainers NeWater/ WP 4.3/ CS Elbe Integrated Assessment and Waterwise for Adaptive Management Potsdam 3 & 4 May 2007 To be used at the very start Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers
IIntroductions Organisation of the training Valentina Krysanova Adaptive management & integrated assessment Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga NeWaterwise model its use (1) and the making of (2) Paul van Walsum To be used at the very start on Thursday Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

We are we good at Name Job Training You can fill this in collectively as icebreacker: draw a typical item from your village Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Evaluation Expectations now Perception afterwards Knowledge Skills Attitude Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Learning objectives of the training
The learning objectives of the training are: (after the training the particpants can) recognize and understand the changes taking place in their water management system; apply the adaptive management cycle for a given case; make their organisation more adaptive; teach this all to their stakeholders! Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Increasing pressure on the traditional water management system
Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Challenges for water management
Global Change Climate change, Population growth, Economic growth They may influence (in)direct demand and supply of water Uncertainty Uncertainty of events and responses, tools & observations, interpretations, new insights & effect of political measurements Complexity Links with other sectors, with water users up- and down stream, with institutions, at various scales and time frames The wolrld is so intensively used that actions will have (in) direct effect on its environment; there is no buffering any more: CO2 and climate change; wateruse and water shortage downstreams; pollution and ecosystem; Global Change Climate change, Population growth, Economic growth influence availability of and demand for water Uncertainty Uncertainty of events, in observations, tools we apply, effect of political measurements Complexity Other water use, other sectors, upstream down stream, institutions, various scales and time frames Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Traditional Water Management
Water Management was focused on the solution of local hydrological problems. Dikes to protect towns against floods More irrigation for more food/ cash crops Reservoirs for more irrigation water Drainage to evacuate saline water and sewerage Legislation for eutrophication of lakes and coastal seas. Are solutions sufficient sustainable? Such ‘command and control’ approach is less satisfactory Under Global Change this type of measurements: Becoming more and more bigger and expensive creating problems for others water users Giving only temporary solutions Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Causes behind the problems
PSIR helps to understand the issues: Pressure (drivers like population pressure) State (cultivation of slopes) Impact (run off, floods) Reaction (dikes to protect towns) Issues are complex and ask for an integrated approach The PSIR indicates the cause and effects of global change. At local scale problems are seen as local features. This can only lead to solutions which does not solve the cause, are only temporaly and often provide an opstacle for other problems. The same PSIR gives an insight in causal sequence of a problem. Several drivers are at stake. Scenarios can be developed. However uncertain, they might provide opportunities rather then a thread, specially if and combined. As more the key aspects are mentioned links can be made with other activities and their owners. By social learning the best combination of solutions can be found rather than a consenses after many years of ‘polderen’. Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Share your experiences on AM 1. List your experience on changes in command, demand and supply of water 2. List the responses of the water system to these changes 1. Changes you observed 2. Responses 3. What made it typical Adaptive Management Participants are asked to note their observations on yellow post-its. In this exercise only (1) and (2). Let every body tell their story Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Sustainable Water Management
Sustainable management of water resources cannot be realized unless current water management regimes undergo a transition towards more adaptive water management. To cope with uncertainties, adaptive management is needed as a systematic process for improving management policies and practices by learning from the outcomes of implemented management strategies. A key element is the active involvement of stakeholders in the process of developing, implementing and monitoring of river basin management plans. Summary of major challenges for water management which are the base for the NeWater research programme where these challenges are to be tackled. Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

IWRM IWRM is ‘a process which promotes the co-ordinated development and management of water, land and related resources in order to maximise the resultant economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems (GWP) The Global Water Partnership (GWP) is the most prominent supporter of IRWM with emphasis on the practical implementation. The figure shows The core of the IWRM concept is the focus on the three dimensions of long-term sustainability, PPP: Economic efficiency, 2. social equity, 3. environmental sustainability The foundations of the IWRM approach represented by the 3 pillars of IWRM: 1.managing instruments, 2. enabeling environment, 3. institutional framework Noteworthy is the emphasis on societal factors which are neglicted in the technology focusses water management. The original source for this information and the next slide is the following document: Jonch-Clausen, T. (2004) Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) and Water Efficiency Plans by TAC Background Papers No. 10. (GWP, Stockholm, Sweden) Jonch-Clausen, 2004, Figure 1 Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Integrated Water Resources Management Cycle
Establish Status and Overall Goals. The starting point of the IWRM process is the burning and urgent water resources issue seen in the national context. Chart the progress towards a management framework within which issues can be addressed and agreed on and overall goals be achieved. Do international agreements with the neighbours present potentials/constraints? Pragmatism is key. Build Commitment to Reform Process. The political will is a prerequisite and building or consolidating a multi-stakeholder dialogue comes high on the list of priority actions. The dialogue needs to be based on knowledge about the subject matter and awareness raising is one of the tools to establish this knowledge and the participation of the broader population. Analyse Gaps. Given the present policy and legislation, the institutional situation, the capabilities and the overall goals, gaps in the IWRM framework can be analysed in the light of the management functions required by the urgent issues. Prepare Strategy and Action Plan The strategy and action plan will map the road towards completion of the framework for water resources management and development and related infrastructural measures. A portfolio of actions will be among the outputs, which will be set in the perspective of other national and international planning processes. Build Commitment to Actions. Adoption of the action plan at highest political levels is key to any progress and full stakeholder acceptance is essential for implementation. Committing finance is another prerequisite for taking planned actions to implementation on the ground. Implement Frameworks. Transforming plans into reality poses huge challenges. The enabling environment, the institutional roles and the management instruments have to be implemented. Changes have to be made in present structures and building of capacity and capability also taking into account infrastructure development need to take place. Monitor and Evaluate Progress. Progress monitoring and evaluation of the process inputs and outcomes serve to adjust the course of action and motivate those driving the processes. Choosing proper descriptive indicators is essential to the value of the monitoring. Jonch-Clausen, T. (2004) Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) and Water Efficiency Plans by TAC Background Papers No. 10. (GWP, Stockholm, Sweden) Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

NeWater works in Case Studies
The NeWater case studies in 7 river basins in Europe, Central Asia and Africa have been chosen to cover a representative range of environmental, political and socio-economic conditions and to provide the base to support the two major European water policies: The European Water Framework Directive and the European Water Initiative. Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

NeWater develops Knowledge base
Participatory process of analysis and assessment in cases Methodological development and integration Analyse current regime and needs for change (vulnerability assessment, adaptive capacity, performance indicators to compare current and target states) Identify barriers for change Analyse process of transition Identify and implement actions at different levels Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Adaptive Management Adaptive Management is a systematic process to improve management approaches by learning from the consequences from implemented management strategies, acknowledges explicitly uncertainties and complexity of the systems to be managed, has as one goal to increase the adaptive capacity of the management regime. Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Adaptive Management characteristics
“Adaptive management is learning to manage by managing to learn” (Bormann et al, 1993 ) Walters (1986): scientific understanding will come from the experience of management as an ongoing, adaptive, and experimental process, rather than through basic research or the development of ecological theory. Adaptive management is introduced as an approach that takes explicitly complexity and uncertainty into account. Sources: Walters, C. J Adaptive Management of Renewable Resources. New York, McGraw Hill.pp. Bormann BT, Cunningham PG, Brookes MH, Manning VW, and Collopy MW, Adaptive ecosystem management in the Pacific Northwest. USDA Forestry Services General Technical Report PNW-GTR-341. Pahl-Wostl, C Transition towards adaptive management of water facing climate and global change. Water Resources Management. 21(1), Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Uncertainties in AM The AM cycle also considers uncertainties like: Ambiguity/ interpretation Complexity of the system to be managed New insights about system behaviour Changes in environmental and/or in socio-economic conditions Uncertainties have partly been neglected up to now in the whole implementation process of IWRM and water management in particular. The IWRM applied in adaptive management is includes incertainties like: 1. Ambíguity/ interpetation– presence of more than one plausible and legitimate interpretation of a problem situation – available knowledge. The main cause for ambiguities are different frames. 2. The systems to be managed have to be described as complex adaptive systems characterized by non-linear dynamics and unexpected responses to system intervention. 3. During the process of implementing management measures new insights may question the original assumptions on which the assessment of the effect of measures was based. 4. Environmental conditions (e.g. climate) and socio-economic conditions (e.g. economic situation) that influence water management may change drastically over the time period during which measures are implemented. Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Social Learning is needed both for implementing and sustaining integrated and adaptive water management regimes Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

What is Social Learning?
Social learning refers to the capacity of all stakeholders to deal with different interests and points of view (does not imply consensus) and to collectively manage the resources in a sustainable way. Important are issues such as the development of a shared problem definition and shared understanding of the physical system at stake, perception issues and mental frames, negotiation processes and strategies, and the quality of communication. Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Social Learning Concept
Role of ICT Tools Problem Framing Boundary Management Ground rules Leadership Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Integrated Water Resources Management Cycle
Include Uncertainties & Social learning! Stakeholders understand and appreciate their positions Hypothesis Testing Learning GWP – Technical Report No10 In order to make the IWRM cycle more Adaptive one should include: Uncertainty (scenarios, allow for variation and change in the process) Social learning ( stakeholders accept that they have different itnterest and possibilities, no consensus but a combined programme, ) Stakeholders realize own tasks they agreed upon Scenario Planning, Generation of Hypotheses Experimental Approaches Robust Action Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Integrated assessment theme
Integrated assessment supports: the various aspects The links between them the uncertainty Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Examples for Management which is not/well adaptive
Urban watersupply List of characteristics Change to ‘living with water’ Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Urban Water Supply – Swiss Case
1 9 2 4 6 8 2000 Year Capacity and Demand (relative) Peak Demand Supply Capacity Average Situation Supply capacity meet max. daily demand Drought condition > increase capacity Demand dropped. Unflexible strategy Sources for information on this case study: Tillman,D.E., Larsen,T., Pahl-Wostl,C., and Gujer,W Simulation for strategy development in water supply systems. Hydroinformatics. 7/1. Pahl-Wostl, C Towards Sustainability in the Water Sector – The Importance of Human Actors and Processes of Social Learning. Aquatic Science. 64, Tillman,D.E., Larsen,T., Pahl-Wostl,C., and Gujer,W Risikoverminderung: Steuerung des Wasserverbrauchs. GWA, 10: Tillman, D., Larsen, T., Pahl-Wostl, C. and Gujer, W Interaction analysis of the stake-holders in watersupply systems. Water Science and Technology, 43: Tillman, D., Larsen, T., Pahl-Wostl, C. and Gujer, W Modelling the actors in water supply systems. Water Science and Technology, 39: Alternative integrated management strategies Negotiated social: Flexible regimes of coordinating supply management with demand management. Pricing -> average demand. Information campaigns -> peak demand. Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Vulnerability Training Seminar,

Reasons for Lack of Adaptability
Rigid rules of good practice with maximum supply security as management paradigm Design of supply capacity to meet maximum daily demand Demand as externally given variable Large scale, long-lived and expensive infrastructure Inflexible legal regulations and technical norms Heavily subsidized system with lack of cost transparency Huge sunk costs which determine water price Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Change of Management paradigm:
Example Flood Management Change of Management paradigm: Currently dominating „Controlling water“ New approach „Living with water“ Risks are quantified and optimal technical solutions are implemented Participatory risk evaluation and negotiation about integrated solutions Large-scale infrastructure (reservoirs, dams) Multi-functional landscape with flooding areas If time is sufficient this casus of the river Rhone can be discussed: lessons ar on slide. If nor Go to slide water managemet regimes (38?) Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

EXAMPLE: Water Management in the Alpine Region Flood Protection in the Rhone basin The example should help to illustrate why we developed this regime characterization and why we focus on transition processes. May be better to start with tangible example rather than with the more abstract regime characterization. Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Expected Impacts Climate Change
In summer, water shortages due to decreasing precipitation, increased likelihood of drought periods, increase in the probability of low-flow conditions (decline of natural buffering capacity due to retreat of glaciers and snow fields) and intensification of water demand for irrigation. Due to increased likelihood of winter and spring floods - increasing demand to use reservoir storage for flood prevention. Request from downstream areas for balancing water flows to buffer extremes (floods and droughts) - potential trade-offs in reservoir and flood management Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Flood Protection in Swiss Rhone Basin
Major dike constructions and 94% of original floodplain disappeared Many species are endangered Severe floodings in the 90ties and 2000 (potential damage estimated to 10 Billion CHF) Some doubts on the effectiveness of the control paradigm Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Objectives Third Rhone Correction
Safety, to ensure the protection against floods. Environmental, to re-establish and even strengthen the biological functions of the river – more space for the river. Socio-economic, to guarantee the base for the present and future socio-economic development of the river basin respecting the interest of different sectors 30 year project with estimated costs of 1 Bio CHF Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Plans for Change Figure from the consultation document of the 3rd Rhone Correction (state of planning late 2005). Shows the constraints due to land use conflicts. Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Rhone – Switzerland Athabasca - Canada River Road Comparison of Athabasca River in the Canadian Rocky Mountains with the Rhone river in the Swiss Alps to illustrate the degree of change Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Summary of Current Outcomes
Political rethoric of change in management practices not confirmed by real changes at operational level Rather conservative strategy driven by technical and economic considerations and avoidance of any use conflicts Uncertainties and climate change have no prominent role Potential opportunities for learning and change have not been effective due to the strong initial framing of the whole project However, to implement innovative strategies (as claimed by policy to be needed) radical change and social learning processes needed Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Comparison current - potential future state
Current state with regulated and controlled rivers Adaptive management with a multi-functional dynamic landscape Paradigm of water management Management as control - Technology driven. Risk can be quantified and optimal strategies can be chosen. Zero-sum-games in closed decision space Implementation of controllable and predictable technical infrastructure (reservoirs, dams) based on fixed regulations for acceptable risk-thresholds Adaptive and integrated water management. “Living with water”. Acceptable decisions are negotiated. Search for win-win solutions and added benefits. Design of multi-functional landscape with increased adaptive capacity of the system. Designed risk dialogue and cascade of adaptation measures to live with extremes. This goes in more detail in two elements of change – the management paradigm and the change in the role of stakeholders in the overall process including power, costs and benefits for different groups, responisbilities, framing, new skills – all elements that support the need of learning processes and emphasize an element of change that is often neglected in the very technical water management world. Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Comparison current - potential future state
Current state with regulated and controlled rivers Adaptive management in multi-functional dynamic landscape Stakeholder groups and their roles and perceptions Authorities as regulators in highly regulated environment Engineers who construct and operate dams, reservoirs and levees House owners living in floodplains without even knowing Environmental protection groups fighting for floodplain restoration Agriculture using land in vicinity of rivers ………….. Authorities as contributors to an adaptive management process with shared responsibilities Neutral third parties act as facilitators of decision making process Engineers with skills in systems design cooperating with ecologists and social scientists House owners with property in floodplain at higher risk of being flooded – loss of value Tourism industry and tourists using the floodplains for recreation …………... Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Implementation of adaptive management is limited in prevailing designs, practices and ideas surrounding river basin management. Structural system-level constraints act as barriers to implement integrated and adaptive management approaches Empirical evidence and theoretical analyses strongly suggest that major barriers for the implementation of adaptive water management can be found in structural factors (e.g. infrastructure, regulatory frameworks), management practices and ideas – paradigms about what management of river basins means and implies. See also as references: Pahl-Wostl, C., Berkamp,G. and Cross,K Adaptive management of upland rivers facing global change: General insights and specific considerations for the Rhone basin. Paper prepared for the Rosenberg International Forum on Water Policy, Banff, Canada, Sep 2006. Pahl-Wostl, C Transition towards adaptive management of water facing climate and global change. Water Resources Management. 21(1), Pahl-Wostl C., The implications of complexity for integrated resources management. Environmental Modelling and Software. 22, Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Water Management Regimes
The concept of water management regimes reflects the idea that: 1. water management in river basins has self-organized elements and 2. has to be described as a strongly interdependent system with internal logic. Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Water Management Regimes
A management regime is here referred to as the whole complex of technologies, institutions (= formal and informal rules), environmental factors and paradigms that are highly interconnected and together form the base for the functioning of the management system targeted to fulfil a societal function. Due to the high interconnectedness and internal logic, individual elements of a regime cannot be exchanged arbitrarily This definition of a management regime is close to the regime concept used in the literature on socio-technical transitions (e.g. Smith,A., Sterling,A., and Berkhout,F The governance of sustainable socio-technical transitions. Research Policy, 34, ). It is broader than the definition of (international) political regimes used in the political sciences. Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Interdependance of stabilizing factors
Regulatory Framework Consumer behavior and habits Long lived interdependent infrastructure Engineers and Planning rules One reason to change the barriers is the strong interdependence of the factors stabilizing current management regimes. In flood management for exampled long-lived infrastructure (dikes, reservoirs) and engineering design rules (build dikes for flood protection and how to design the size of a dam), regulatory frameworks and expectations of consumers living in flood plains have all co-evolved and depend on each other. See also the next example for water supply management from Switzerland.

Idealtypical Representation
Simplified representation – To define the ‚transition‘ is a NeWater task Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Share your experiences on AM 1. List your experience on changes in command, demand and supply of water 2. List the responses of the water system to these changes 1. Changes you observed 2. Responses 3. What made it typical Adaptive Management already Participants apply what they learnt from AM and formulate typical AM aspects of casus from their own (previous) experience. Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

MTF Action Arena The Transition Management Framework is a process in which the actor deals with other actors in a action situation with roles artefarcts and action. The actors are rooted in the action arena which contains the watersystem, the resources, and institutions and the management goals The actor may or may not be active part of the water system. The outcome of the action situtaion is subjet of evaluation and bcomes pat of the new action arena (loop right-under). Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Learning and experimentation process in parallel to “regular” management At the left the more formal and efficient operating ‘Water administration process’ At the right side the “Innovative Shadow network” with less red tape obligations and more creativitity (persons, environment). It may ‘formally organised’ or an ‘informal group’ or even a ‘creative chaos’. ‘Open Windows’ Important is that the (interim) products of the shadow network enter the Water Administration Process through ‘open windows’ Short description of the steps in the two processes: Management Process: (1) The strategic goals for the management process are set to determine a desirable state of the water system. (2) The current state of the water system is assessed to estimate the distance of the current state from the desired goal state – to do so requires to make assumption how the strategic goals can be compared to empirical evidence. A first comparison of the current state with the strategic goals allows to determine the degree of deviation from desired state and estimate the need for action. (3) Policies are developed that represent coherent approaches how and in which time frame to improve the current state of the water system. (4) Operational goals are defined that allow to assess efficiency and effectiveness of measures and that are the base for monitoring programs. (5) A plan with specific measures including an assessment of their effectiveness is developed. (6) In this phase the measure are implemented on the ground at the appropriate level. (7) Monitoring serves to assess if the implemented measures lead to the achievement of the set goals and to detect potential unexpected and undesired consequences. Operational goals. the programme of measures and the implementation process be reconsidered. The process may even go back to the first step and strategic goals may come under scrutiny. Process of structural change (8) Dissatisfaction with the current management approach beyond a threshold where people start to act. The (local) champions enter the scene. (9) Some actors succeed in reframing the problem, they are rallying and achieve a critical mass to take the process further. (10) The informal network has come together and succeeded in reframing and restructuring the problem. (11) Discussions are synthesized and brought into a simple and inspiring vision. (12)a: Scenarios are developed that illustrate barriers and bridges how to realize the visions. (12) b: Bring in other stakeholders to get access to different kinds of knowledge and build critical mass for support (13) Choosing viable paths and make a plan how to get the resources to go down these paths. (14) Informal network analyses specific possibilities along these paths. (Windows of opportunities) (15) Political campaigns surfaces. The tactical campaign is launched. (16) a: Demonstration projects with prototype experiments at smaller scale. (16) b: Sustain momentum by continuing to accumulate resources (people, money...). Decision point: process may stop link to the current system opportunities are realized, move forward Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

How to stimulate ‘Transition to AM’
For discussion: Can you create a shadow network within or outside your organisation? 2. Where would you put your ‘open windows’ on? In this exercise the participants will: 1. focuss on the barriers within his water management system 2. Imagine how a shadow network may look like 3. Realize that innovation is a/ something that can organised and stimulate and b/ from the street by being alert on onging processes in informal cycles. Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Integrated assessment and NeWaterwise in the adaptive management
Themes and Tools Place and Function Integrated assessment and NeWaterwise in the adaptive management Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Two perspectives on policy development and implementation:
Tools to support adaptive management and learning Two perspectives on policy development and implementation: Left – the different steps in an iterative cycle of policy development and implementation in adaptive management. Right – the different elements of processes of social learning and institutional change Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Characteristics of different steps of policy cycle and requirements for tools to support these steps Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Integrated assessment theme
Integrated assessment supports: the various aspects The links between them the uncertainty Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Waterwise tool Waterwise is an interface,…. Waterwise links land use with water quality & quantity Waterwise can be used for integrated assessment Waterwise can be used for integrated planning Waterwise is interactive and participatory? Check what Waterwise is and where it fits in the AM cycle Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

THE END Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Evaluation Expectations Perception Knowledge already Skills Attitude Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Topics Concepts of IWRM (Integrated Water Resources Management) and AM (Adaptive Management) Water management regimes More on the topics addressed in the introduction can be found in the following documents: Information on the NeWater project on the webpage: In particular the following reports are of interest: - Papers in peer-reviewed journals: Pahl-Wostl, C Towards Sustainability in the Water Sector – The Importance of Human Actors and Processes of Social Learning. Aquatic Science. 64, Pahl-Wostl C., The implications of complexity for integrated resources management. Environmental Modelling and Software. 22, Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

NeWater New approaches to adaptive water management under uncertainty
Transdisciplinary Research Project: FP6 EU January 2005 – December 2008 Funded with 12 Mio Euro from the EU 35 project partners Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

NeWater in the case study areas
To develop a conceptual framework for research and adaptive management of river basins that integrates natural science, engineering and social science concepts and methodologies. To analyse and classify major sources of uncertainty in IWRM and their implications for management. To analyse past, present and future vulnerability and adaptive capacity of river basins and key factors of influence. To develop tools to analyse different management regimes and manage the transition to adaptive management tailored to the institutional, cultural, environmental, technological settings of river basins. Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

NeWater Products Conceptual framework for understanding water systems and management regimes (components, dynamics) Methodology to analyse and assess vulnerability, adaptive capacity, management strategies Conceptual framework for understanding the transition to adaptive management regimes (interdependence of factors, trajectories) Methodology for the participatory assessment and implementation of transformation processes and evaluation of progress Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Steps in Policy Cycle In problem definition take into account different perspectives in participatory process. Scenario analysis in design of policies - strategies that perform well under different possible future developments Decisions should be evaluated by the costs of reversing them. Adaptive management requires to take into account uncertainties during the policy cycle as outlined in the figure. Monitoring programmes should include different kinds of knowledge Institutional settings needed where actors assess the performance of management strategies and implement change in transparent fashion Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Requirements for Regime to be Adaptive
New information must be available and/or consciously collected (e.g. indicators of performance or for change) and monitored over appropriate time scales The actors in management system must be able to process information and draw meaningful conclusions. This can be best achieved if the learning process unites actors in all phases of assessment, policy implementation and monitoring. Change must be possible and must be implemented in ways that are open and understandable to all actors. It must be clear as to who decides how and when to change management practices, based on which evidence and why. Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Hypotheses on characteristics of adaptive regimes
Prediction, Control Regime Integrated, Adaptive Regime Governance Centralized, hierarchical, narrow stakeholder participation Polycentric, horizontal, broad stakeholder participation Sectoral Integration Sectors separately analysed resulting in policy conflicts and emergent chronic problems Cross-sectoral analysis identifies emergent problems and integrates policy implementation Scale of Analysis and Operation Transboundary problems emerge when river sub-basins are the exclusive scale of analysis and management Transboundary issues addressed by multiple scales of analysis and management Information Management Understanding fragmented by gaps and lack of integration of information sources that are proprietary Comprehensive understanding achieved by open, shared information sources that fill gaps and facilitate integration Infrastructure Massive, centralized infrastructure, single sources of design, power delivery Appropriate scale, decentralized, diverse sources of design, power delivery Finances and Risk Financial resources concentrated in structural protection (sunk costs) Financial resources diversified using a broad set of private and public financial instruments These are central hypotheses derived within the NeWater project. Two different regimes are contrasted as the extreme, opposing ends of five characteristics (Pahl-Wostl et al. 2005, Pahl-Wostl, 2007). The characteristics of integrated adaptive regimes are to be regarded as working hypotheses since the change towards more adaptive regimes is yet slow and experience thus limited. One possible reason for the lack of innovation is the strong interdependence of the factors stabilizing current management regimes (see also previous slide). One cannot, for example, move easily from top-down to participatory management practices without changing the whole approach to information and risk management. Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Elements of Transition
Pred&Cont REGIME Int & Adap REGIME Governance Sectoral Integration Elements of Transition Scale of Analysis And Operation Information Management WHO? WHY? Infra- structure Finances And RIsk Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Water Management Hierarchies for Adaptive Management
Steps towards practical guidance Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Integrated Assessment and Waterwise for Adaptive Management

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