1. Sampa Video
Solution Discussion

2. Sampa Video Case
This case is useful for illustrating how we do NPV analysis when cash flows are risky, illustrating the idea of a terminal value, and also for thinking about what kinds of advantages make for positive NPV projects.
The case discusses Sampa Video, the second largest chain of video rental stores in the greater Boston area, and their consideration of an expansion into an on-line market.
What we have to do is evaluate the decision.

3. Sampa Video – History
Sampa began as a small store in Harvard Square catering mostly to students.
The company expanded quickly, largely due to its reputation for customer service and its extensive selection of foreign and independent films.
In March of 2001 Sampa was considering entering into the business of home delivery of videos.
This follows on the heals of rumors of similar considerations by Blockbuster and the appearance of internet based competitors (Kramer.com and CityRetrieve.com).

4. Expectations
The project was expected to increase its annual revenue growth rate from 5% to 10% a year over the next 5 years.
Subsequent to this, the free cash flow from the home delivery unit was expected to grow at the same 5% rate that was typical of the video rental industry as a whole.
Up-front investment required for delivery vehicles, developing the necessary website, and marketing efforts were expected to run $1.5 M.

5. Projections – Incremental Cash Flows (thousands of $)
Sales
1,200
2,400
3,900
5,600
7,500
EBITD
180
360
585
840
1,125
Depr.
(200)
(225)
(250)
(275)
(300)
EBIT
(20)
135
335
565
825
Tax 8
(54)
(134)
(226)
(330)
EBIAT
(12) 81
201
339
495
CAPX
300
∆NWC
Why no changes in net working capital? Cash business!! But: no increased inventory??

6. Free Cash Flow – Estimation Period
(112) 6
151
314
495
EBIT – Taxes + Depr – CAP EX – change in NWC

7. Cost of Capital
We are given information on comparable firms’ asset betas, a risk free rate and a market risk premium.
SML:
E(r) = 5.0% + (7.2%)
rA: the appropriate discount rate
rA = 5.0% (7.2%) = 15.8%

8. NPV – No Debt
Value the free cash flows in the forecast period using the cost of capital we derived.
Find the present value of the terminal value using this same discount rate.
The sum of these components is the unlevered total value.

9. Discounted Free Cash Flow: Estimation Period
Year
2002E
2003E
2004E
2005E
2006E
FCF
(112) 6
151
314
495
(1+r0,t)
(96.7)
4.5
97.2
174.6
237.7
EBIT – Taxes + Depr – CAP EX – change in NWC

10. Terminal Value Calculation
The project is not expected to end at 2006.
We are told that management expects free cash flow to increase at 5% per year after This makes the estimated 2007 free cash flow value equal to $
We can now value the “rest of the life of this project” (under the assumption its life span is “forever”) using a growing perpetuity formula.

11. Terminal Value Calculation
Recall: the value of a growing perpetuity as of one year prior to the first cash payment is given by:
Here that value is:

12. Final Value
We now need to realize that the perpetuity value has given us a year 5 (2006) value. The $4,812.5 is dollars in Discounting this at 15.8% for 5 years puts it into dollars today: $2,311.1
The sum of the net present value of the estimation period cash flows and the present value of the terminal value is the total NPV for the project:
This sum indicates we create over a million dollars in value by undertaking this project.

13. Cautions
Estimates like this are only as good as the projections that go into them.
Are there any issues?
How does their competitive advantage translate to the new arena?
What if I told you that it takes over 11 years of operation at these estimated levels to make the project a positive NPV project (discounted payback period calculation)?