1. Upstream Engineering Centre Ocean predictions and the oil and gas industry - room for improvement? Colin Grant Metocean Technical Authority

2. OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011 2 Ocean predictions and the oil & gas industry Ocean predictions have uses in 3 main areas in the industry −Forecasts – real time operations and short term planning (1 to 5 day) −Reanalysis products / hindcasts – operational planning −“weather windows” −Databases to establish design criteria such as 100 year and 10,000 year values

3. OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011 3 How useful are present ocean predictions? Waves −Generally acceptable quality for both short term forecasts and as hindcast databases. Suitable calibration with measured data permits use for design studies and operability analyses. Currents −Lack of accuracy in temporal comparisons – frequently miss peak events when compared to measured data. Issues of sampling. Some skill in certain regions on a climatological basis. Used with care by the industry, for design studies, often after calibration & adjustment. Water level −Useful products for design when combined with extreme wave predictions to establish total water levels. Setting of platform decks. Temperatures & Salinity −Industry not a major user. Hindcast archives used for design (flow assurance issues – hydrate formation etc). Oil spill weathering issues Sea ice conditions −Increasingly important with the move towards Arctic environments

4. OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011 4 Wave and current comparisons with data

5. OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011 5 Major challenges & requirements Industry moving to deeper water and arctic areas. Deep water operations require knowledge of currents through the water column, both as forecasts and as hindcast databases. −Riser and mooring design and control −Combinations of parameters for response-based analyses using joint probabilities of key parameters −Winds, waves & currents −Wave crests & water levels −Waves, currents and sea ice Example −Gulf of Mexico

6. OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011 6 Gulf of Mexico - Loop & Eddy Forecasts

7. OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011 7 Macondo Oil Spill

8. OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011 8 Macondo oil spill modeling Much modeling activity both by BP and the US Govt BP’s in-house oil spill model is being standardised on SINTEF’s “Marine Environmental Modelling Workbench” −OSCAR – Oil Spill Contingency & Response −DREAM – Dose-related Risk & Effects Assessment Model −DEEPBLOW Require initialisation and boundary conditions from atmospheric and ocean models in order to run effectively Several other oil spill modelling providers e.g. ASA, BMT etc http://www.sintef.no/static/ch/environment/numerical_modelling.htm

9. OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011 9 Scenario – West of Shetland spill “My Ocean” Resource Time res – Hourly (+ daily mean) Spatial res - 0.1 deg −(approx 6km) Depth −Numerous levels to 600m Variables −N & E Velocity −Salinity −Temperature −Sea surface height above geoid

10. OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011 10 West of Shetland complexity

11. OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011 11 Issues for oil spill modelling Availability of input data varies regionally Prediction of deep water oil spill trajectories is now a 3D dispersion problem Global models e.g. US Navy HYCOM – daily mean values −Nest finer models from global models Use the ocean model that the regulator uses to enhance acceptability? −Australia - Blue Link CSIRO / BoM / RAN BP long term collaboration with Imperial College, London −ReEMS - Regional Environmental Monitoring System −Open source codes −WRF + ROMS (including sea ice) + SWAN + NOAH −Main focus is climate change but also being used to assist in oil spill modeling −Caspian used as a test bed (4km resolution) −Work on Mediterranean, West Africa, Brazil etc

12. OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011 12 The future of ocean prediction? Linking modelling with observations −In-situ, remotely sensed (satellite, aerial, HF radar etc) −Formatting and geo-referencing issues −Data assimilation Product development and dissemination −Web / GIS based −User friendly – aimed at decision makers, not specialists Integrated approaches to observation, forecasting and ultimately end user problem solving.

13. OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011 13 Questions