1. The chemical composition of the middle atmosphere - a nowcasting product based on irradiance observations of the experiments LYRA/PROBA2 and PREMOS/PICARD Werner Schmutz 1), Tanja Egorova 1), Eugene Rozanov 1), Alexander Shapiro 1), Anna Shapiro 1), Manfred Vogel 2) 1) Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos and World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Davos, Switzerland 2) Institut für 4D–Technologien, Hochschule für Technik FHNW, Windisch, Switzerland SOTERIA meeting, Saariselkä 22.3.2009

2. 22.3.2009 Overview The PMOD/WRC space projects –LYRA/PROBA2 –PREMOS/PICARD The nowcasting project Current additions to SOCOL i

3. 22.3.2009 LYRA 3 units 12 detectors 24 LEDs … 315.0 x 92.5 x 222.0 mm ~A4 size 5.0 kg 1 unit = 4 wavelength channels

4. 22.3.2009 LYRA (FM March 2006) BESSY synchrotron calibration at PTB

5. 22.3.2009 LYRA integration on PROBA2 5.3.2007 Launch 15. July 2009

6. 22.3.2009 PICARD PREMOS – SOVAP – SODISM Total Solar Irradiance Filter Radiometers

7. 22.3.2009 Filter Radiometers LYRA/PROBA2 (launch July 2009 ?!) PREMOS-PFR/PICARD (launch 2009 or early 2010) 210 LYRA: 30 (Zr), 70 (Al), 125, 210 nm 215 PREMOS: 215, 266, 535, 607, 782 nm

8. 22.3.2009 UV influence on the terrestrial atmosphere Ozone mixing ratio changes (%) due to a 10% increase of the spectral solar flux in 1 wavelength bin (1 nm). Ozone Herzberg band 210 nm Ozone band 270 nm Ly  30 km: level of max. ozone change

9. 22.3.2009 LYRA Instrument on PROBA2 (built by ROB & PMOD/WRC) Chemistry ionosphere climate model (CICM) extension of CCM SOCOL (Egorova et al., 2005) On-line LYRA data for space-weather community LYRA/PROBA2

10. 22.3.2009 Project idea Nowcast of neutral and ion composition in the mesosphere based on solar irradiance measurements Hourly/Daily Data from observations by PREMOS, LYRA, SORCE Radiation spectrum reconstruction 120-680 nm (Egorova et al., 2008,ACP) Nowcast of anomalies of neutral and charged species with free running CICM SOCOL i Nowcast results available on web every 6 hours Output validation to improve the model and experimental set-up  Evaluate the response of the middle atmosphere to the solar UV irradiance variability

11. 22.3.2009 Aim of Nowcast Find out how well we understand the solar influence on the middle atmosphere; Learn how to provide near-real-time operation; Space Weather Service is secondary goal but may become interesting if successful !

12. 22.3.2009 LYRA measurements: 6-hourly solar irradiance at 115-125 nm (Lyman-  ) 200-220 nm (Herzberg cont.) Spectral irradiance for other wavelengths Measurements for previous month Statistical tools Input of spectral solar irradiance on model spectral grid for the next 6 hours Data flow

13. 22.3.2009 Status PMOD/WRC project Model SOCOL i is developed  Getting ready for „operational service“ after PROBA 2 launch  Develop data flow; automatic modelling, and tool to browse the result  via link available through European Space Weather Portal web page Publications: –Egorova T. et al. 2004, GRL 31, L06119: Chemical and dynamical response to the 11-year variability of the solar irradiance simulated with a chemistry-climate Model –Egorova T. et al. 2005, COSPAR, Adv. Space Res. 35, 451-457: Influence of solar 11-year variability on chemical composition of the stratosphere and mesosphere simulated with a chemistry-climate model –Rozanov E., Egorova T., Schmutz W., Peter T., 2006, J. Atm. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 68, 2203–2213, Simulation of the stratospheric ozone and temperature response to the solar irradiance variability during sun rotation cycle –Egorova et al. 2008, ACP 8, 2965-2973, Nowcast and short-term forecast in the middle atmosphere based on the observed UV irradiance.

14. 22.3.2009 SOCOL : modeling tool to study SOlar-Climate-Ozone Links General Circulation component (GCM): MA-ECHAM4 (Manzini & McFarlane,1998) Chemistry/transport component (CTM) : MEZON (Egorova et al., 2003) GCM CTM Winds and temperature H 2 O (troposphere) Ozone H 2 O(stratosphere) Main properties: ~4ºx4º (T30); L39; ~80km Included all relevant physical, dynamical and chemical processes Simulates wind, temperature, 43 neutral and 48 charged species CICM SOCOL

15. 22.3.2009 Spectral solar irradiance on model spectral grid for the next 6 hours Initial fields for 10 ensemble members 10-member model ensemble run for the next 6 hours Model output for the next 6 hours Initialization fields for the next period Experimental setup

16. 22.3.2009 Mixing ratio of the neutral species and electrons, negative and positive ions density for the 6 hour period after the last LYRA measurement and their statistical properties O +, O 2 +, O 4 +, N +, NO +, N 2 +, H 2 O 2 +, H 3 O +,O 2 + ∙N 2, O 2 + ∙H 2 O, H 3 O + ∙OH, NO + ∙H 2 O, NO + ∙(H 2 O) 2, NO + ∙(H 2 O) 3, NO + ∙CO 2, NO + ∙N 2, NO + ∙H 2 O∙CO 2, NO + ∙H 2 O∙N 2, NO + ∙(H 2 O) 2 ∙CO 2, NO + ∙(H 2 O) 2 ∙N 2, H + ∙(H 2 O) 2, H + ∙(H 2 O) 3, H + ∙(H 2 O) 4, H + ∙(H 2 O) 5, H + ∙(H 2 O) 6, H + ∙(H 2 O) 7, H 3 O + ∙CO 2, H 3 O + ∙N 2, H + ∙(H 2 O) 2 ∙CO 2, H + ∙(H 2 O) 2 ∙N 2 e¯,O¯, O 2 ¯, O 3 ¯, O 4 ¯, OH¯, CO 3 ¯, CO 4 ¯, NO 2 ¯, NO 3 ¯, HCO 3 ¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH 3 ¯,O 2 ¯∙H 2 O, NO 3 ¯∙H 2 O, CO 3 ¯∙H 2 O O 3, O *, O, O 2 *, NO, HO 2, ClO, NO 2, OH, NO 3, N 2 O 5, HNO 3,HONO 3, ClONO 2, Cl, N, N *, H 2 O 2, H, HOCl, Cl 2, Cl 2 O 2, HCl,Br, CH 2 O, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNO 3, BrCl, CH 3, CH 3 O 2, CH 3 O, HCO, CH 3 O 2 H, H 2 O, CFC-11, CFC-12, N 2 O, CH 4, CO, H 2, CBrF 3 Output data 4D Location, height, and time

17. 22.3.2009 Positive ions Negative ions and electrons Neutrals Graphs: Exp1-Exp2 1)Solar maximum with GCR at min + NO ionization 2)Solar minimum control with GCR at max + NO ionization Model sensitivity to the changes of the solar spectral irradiance from minimum to maximum of the solar activity

18. 22.3.2009 SUSIM data SOCOLcalculations Microwave Radiometer SOMORA : Data provided by Bern University N.Kämpfer group Red: Ly-alpha Blue: Herzberg (scaled) Comparison 3D simulation and observations: signal of 27-day solar cycle in ozone

19. 22.3.2009 Latest update: SEP effects Time-altitude distribution differences at 70-90 N relative to SEP effects turned off

20. Summary SWAP (0.1 Hz) + LYRA (60 Hz) on PROBA2 provide the EUV equivalent in Europe of the NOAA SXI + GOES X-ray monitor 2009-2011 SODISM + PREMOS on PICARD will continue in the near UV and visual 2009/2010-2012