1. TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE IN PAKISTAN A Paradigm Shift That Will Improve the Quality of Life in Pakistan Part 2B: Floods (continued) Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

2. PAKISTAN IS PRONE TO NATURAL HAZARDS FLOODS EARTHQUAKES DROUGHTS LANDSLIDES FLOODS EARTHQUAKES DROUGHTS LANDSLIDES

3. FLOODS (TOO MUCH WATER) Floods in Pakistan occur mainly as the result of extreme levels of precipitation during monsoon season, MORE THAT THE REGIONAL DRAINAGE SYSTEM CAN ACCOMADATE..

4. FLOOD DISASTERS IN PAKISTAN Some of Pakistan’s past notable flood disasters have affected as many as 20 million people and killed over 10,000 people.

5. WHAT DO WE KNOW? Disaster resilience has become an urgent global goal in the 21 st century as many Nations are experiencing disasters after a natural hazard strikes, and learning that their communities, institutions, and people do NOT yet have the capacity to be disaster resilient.

6. Disaster resilience, a measure of the capacity of a country to rebound quickly after the socioeconomic impacts of a disaster, requires decision-making for a national paradigm shift from the status quo.

7. WHEN A COUNTRY IS DISASTER PRONE, CONTINUATION OF THE STATUS QUO Will result in new and more complex HEALTH PROBLEMS WILL result in unnecessary DEATHS AND INJURIES WILL result in longer and more costly RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

8. A PARADIGM SHIFT TOWARDS FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCE A THREE STEP PROCESS

9. TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE IN PAKISTAN Step 1: Integrate Past Experiences Into Books of Knowledge Step 2: From Books of Knowledge to Innovative Educational Surges to Build Professional and Technical Capacity Step 3: From Professional and Technical Capacity to Disaster Resilience

10. Step 1: Integrate Past Experiences Into Books of Knowledge NOTE: A book of Knowkedge is everything we know or think we know about India’s earthquakes

11. BOOK OF BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE - Perspectives KNOWLEDGE - Perspectives On Science, Policy, On Science, Policy, And Change And Change

12. FIVE UNCONTROLLABLE FACTORS The severity of a disaster is exacerbated by five uncontrollable factors: 1) the time of day, 2) the day of the week, 3) the time of the year, 4) the amount and suddenness of the inundation, and 5) the capacity of the regional drainage basin to transport the water.

13. TWO CONTROLLABLE FACTORS The severity of a disaster is exacerbated by two other factors that tend to happen gradually over time: 1) the poor quality of construction of buildings and infrastructure, and 2) the loss of capacity to anticipate and prepare for the kinds of socioeconomic losses that occur in a flood disaster.

14. LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN FLOODS INUNDATION INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS STRUCTURAL/CONTENTS DAMAGE FROM WATER WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS) EROSION AND MUDFLOWS CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER CAUSES OF RISK FLOOD DISASTER LABORATORIES

15. Step 2: From Books of Knowledge to Innovative Educational Surges to Build Professional and Technical Capacity in Pakistan to Minimize Likely Impacts in the Next Flood Disaster

16. NOTE: Step 2 is a task for a Nation’s “Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine,” its educational institutions at all levels, and its electronic and print media that provide public information

17. GOAL: MINIMIZE THE “DOMINOE EFECTS” OF THE NEXT DISASTER

18. BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE Are “TOOLS” to facilitate Pakistan’s continuing commitment to minimize the likely impacts of the inevitable future floods, thereby preventing another disaster

19. Step 3: From Professional and Technical Capacity to Science- based Decision-making for a Paradigm Shift from the status quo to Disaster Resilience in Pakistan

20. NOTE: Step 3 is a task for a Nation’s “decision-makers,” (i.e., its political leaders, stakeholders, and leading professionals) who have a basis for deciding on the nature and scope of a national paradigm shift

21. LIVING WITH NATURAL HAZARDS INCREASED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY A DISASTER: INSUFFICIENT CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY

22. LIVING WITH NATURAL HAZARDS DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY MINIMIZED IMPACTS OF THE NEXT EARTHQUAKE: CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY

23. PAKISTAN’S COMMUNITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS NATURAL HAZARDS MAPS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK POLICIES TO MINIMIZE IMPACTS POLICIES TO MINIMIZE IMPACTS PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION/PREVENTION EARLY WARNING EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY POLICY OPTIONS