1. TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE IN PAKISTAN A Paradigm Shift That Will Improve the Quality of Life in Pakistan Part 2A: Floods Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

2. GLOBAL NATURAL HAZARDS THAT CAN CAUSE DISASTERS FLOODS SEVERE WINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKES TSUNAMIS DROUGHTS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS LANDSLIDES WILDFIRES

3. WHAT DO WE KNOW? Disaster resilience has become an urgent global goal in the 21 st century as many Nations are experiencing disasters after a natural hazard strikes, and learning that their communities, institutions, and people do NOT yet have the capacity to be disaster resilient.

4. FLOODING IS COUNTER PRODUCTIVE Flooding occurs somewhere in the world approximately 10,000 times every year as the consequence of a locale having more water than the regional drainage basin can accomadate.

5. Disaster resilience, a measure of the capacity of a country to rebound quickly after the socioeconomic impacts of a disaster, requires decision-making for a national paradigm shift from the status quo.

6. WHEN A COUNTRY IS DISASTER PRONE, CONTINUATION OF THE STATUS QUO Will result in new and more complex HEALTH PROBLEMS WILL result in unnecessary DEATHS AND INJURIES WILL result in longer and more costly RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

7. PAKISTAN IS PRONE TO NATURAL HAZARDS FLOODS EARTHQUAKES DROUGHTS LANDSLIDES FLOODS EARTHQUAKES DROUGHTS LANDSLIDES

8. WATER IS A STRATEGIC RESOURCE Life in Pakistan depends upon clean and abundant water. Economic growth in Pakistan relies on water. Quality of life in Pakistan revolves around water.

9. FLOODS (TOO MUCH WATER) Floods in Pakistan occur mainly as the result of extreme levels of precipitation during monsoon season, MORE THAT THE REGIONAL DRAINAGE SYSTEM CAN ACCOMADATE..

10. Pakistan’s Notable Floods 1973,,1976, 1977, 1978, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1898, 2010, ….

11. FLOOD DISASTERS IN PAKISTAN Some of Pakistan’s past notable flood disasters have affected as many as 20 million people and killed over 10,000 people.

12. FLOOD DISASTERS IN PAKISTAN Aug. 1973—affected 4.8 million Aug. 1976—affected 5.5 million June 1977—affected 1 million; killed 10,354 July 1978—affected 2.2 million Aug. 1992—affected 6.1 million Sept. 1992—affected 12.3 million; killed 1.3 million July 1995—affected 1.3 million Aug.1996—affected 2.2 million Mar. 1998—killed 1,000 Jul./Aug. 2010—affected 20 million; killed thousands

13. NORTHWEST PAKISTAN HIT BY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AFTER PROLONGED MONSOON RAINS JULY 28-AUGUST 23, 2010 [NOTE: War and Ramadan (which began on Aug 12) were major hinderances]

14. ONE-FIFTH OF PAKISTAN AFFECTED

15. Summer floods are common as a result of monsoon rains that swell rivers and streams across Pakistan, but 2010’s floods, which began in May and continued through August were the worst in 80 years

16. Rainfall records were set in the province of KhyberPakhtunkhwa, parts of the Pakistan-administered Kashmir region, and the eastern province of Punjab.

17. RESPONSIVE IN SPITE OF HORIFIC PROBLEMS The Pakistan government, the military, and the people were very responsive in a variety of catastrophic and dynamic situation threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions.

18. Over 1,600 Pakistanis died (and probably many more) and more than 20,000,000 were impacted, including 3,500,000 children, as rains swelled rivers, inundated villages, and triggered landslides, causing entire villages, roads, and bridges to be swept away and leaving some areas isolated. In Afghanistan, NATO and Afghan troops flew dramatic helicopter rescue missions in militant-held territory, displaying "acts of heroism that were awe inspiring," according to a spokesman for the Combined Air Power Transition Force.

19. The survival of some of the poorest of the poor living in the districts of Nowshera, Charsadda, Peshawar, Swat, and Lower Dir became problematic very early because of the prolonged, catastrophic nature of the monsoon rains and flooding.

20. The United Nations announced Saturday, July 31, that they would provide $10 million dollars for immediate emergency assistance and would appeal for 460 million for an emergency effort to provide food, medicine, water, and shelter, especially for 3.5 million children.

21. Survival for thousands was a race with time as evacuation, search and rescue, mass care (food, clean water, and short- and long-term health care to prevent disease) were severely hindered by the widespread inundation and loss of infrastructure. International response to the appeal of the United Nations for $460 million was unusually slow due, in part, to global economic problems.

22. The USA provided $60 million for immediate emergency assistance along with Navy and Marine helicopters, rescue boats, water filtration units, prefabricated steel bridges and thousands of packaged meals, which Pakistani soldiers tossed from helicopters On August 12 th, Pakistan’s President Zardari made his first trip to Sukkur to view the flood impacts and to assure angry citizens concerned that they had been abandoned, that the Government was working very hard to obtain international relief.

23. By August 12 th, rain-swollen rivers were receding, but the disaster was still growing because many of Pakistan’s poorest of the poor families had not only lost their homes, but also the ability to feed themselves, and were now threatened with disease..

24. DERA ISMAIL KHAN: INUNDATED

25. FLOOD SWOLLEN RIVER: MINGORA, SWAT

26. MUZAFFARABAD: RISING FLOOD WATERS

27. THOUSANDS OF MUD BRICK HOMES COLLAPSED

28. NOWSHERA: DAMAGED MUD HOUSE

29. TRYING TO DIVERT WATER

30. LOSS OF INFRASTRUCTURE HINDERED EMERGENCY RESPONSE

31. OVER 3.5 MILLION CHILDREN IMPACTED

32. COLLAPSED HOUSE

33. THESE LIVESTOCK WERE SAVED, BUT THOUSANDS DROWNED

34. PESHAWAR: MELONS BECAME PRECIOUS

35. CLINGING TO DEBRIS

36. NOWSHERA: SEEKING HIGHER GROUND

37. SEEKING HIGHER GROUND

38. SEEKING A SAFE HAVEN

39. THIS EVACUATION FROM CHARSADDA WAS DIFFICULT

40. EVACUATION WAS DIFFICULT EVERYWHERE

41. NOWSHERA: EVACUATION

42. NOWSHERA: EVACUATION TO A SAFE HAVEN

43. EVACUATE WITH WHAT CAN BE CARRIED

44. MUZAFFARABAD: INADEQUATE TEMPORARY SHELTER

45. INADEQUATE TEMPORARY SHELTER

46. BETTER, BUT INADEQUATE TEMPORARY SHELTER?

47. 30,000 Pakistani troops rescued 28,000 people using helicopters and other means, and distributed water and food.

48. NOWSHERA: PAKISTANI ARMY DISTRIBUTING WATER

49. WAITING FOR FOOD

50. FOOD LINE IN PUNJAB PROVINCE: AUGUST 20

51. A PARADIGM SHIFT TOWARDS FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCE A THREE STEP PROCESS

52. TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE IN PAKISTAN Step 1: Integrate Past Experiences Into Books of Knowledge Step 2: From Books of Knowledge to Innovative Educational Surges to Build Professional and Technical Capacity Step 3: From Professional and Technical Capacity to Disaster Resilience

53. Step 1: Integrate Past Experiences Into Books of Knowledge NOTE: A book of Knowkedge is everything we know or think we know about India’s earthquakes

54. BOOK OF BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE - Perspectives KNOWLEDGE - Perspectives On Science, Policy, On Science, Policy, And Change And Change

55. FIVE UNCONTROLLABLE FACTORS The severity of a disaster is exacerbated by five uncontrollable factors: 1) the time of day, 2) the day of the week, 3) the time of the year, 4) the amount and suddenness of the inundation, and 5) the capacity of the regional drainage basin to transport the water.

56. TWO CONTROLLABLE FACTORS The severity of a disaster is exacerbated by two other factors that tend to happen gradually over time: 1) the poor quality of construction of buildings and infrastructure, and 2) the loss of capacity to anticipate and prepare for the kinds of socioeconomic losses that occur in a flood disaster.

57. FIVE UNCONTROLLABLE FACTORS The severity of the disaster was exacerbated by five uncontrollable factors: 1) the time of day, 2) the day of the week, 3) the time of the year, 4) the magnitude and shallow depth of the quake, and 5) the poor soils and mountainous terrain of the region.

58. TWO CONTROLLABLE FACTORS The severity of the disaster was exacerbated by two other factors that happened gradually over time: 1) the poor quality of construction of buildings and lifeline systems, and 2) the loss of capacity to anticipate and prepare for the deaths, injuries, and socioeconomic losses in a disaster.

59. LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN FLOODS INUNDATION INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS STRUCTURAL/CONTENTS DAMAGE FROM WATER WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS) EROSION AND MUDFLOWS CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER CAUSES OF RISK FLOOD DISASTER LABORATORIES

60. Step 2: From Books of Knowledge to Innovative Educational Surges to Build Professional and Technical Capacity in Pakistan to Minimize Likely Impacts in the Next Flood Disaster

61. NOTE: Step 2 is a task for a Nation’s “Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine,” its educational institutions at all levels, and its electronic and print media that provide public information

62. GOAL: MINIMIZE THE “DOMINOE EFECTS” OF THE NEXT DISASTER

63. BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE Are “TOOLS” to facilitate Pakistan’s continuing commitment to minimize the likely impacts of the inevitable future floods, thereby preventing another disaster

64. Step 3: From Professional and Technical Capacity to Science- based Decision-making for a Paradigm Shift from the status quo to Disaster Resilience in Pakistan

65. NOTE: Step 3 is a task for a Nation’s “decision-makers,” (i.e., its political leaders, stakeholders, and leading professionals) who have a basis for deciding on the nature and scope of a national paradigm shift

66. LIVING WITH NATURAL HAZARDS INCREASED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY A DISASTER: INSUFFICIENT CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY

67. LIVING WITH NATURAL HAZARDS DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY MINIMIZED IMPACTS OF THE NEXT EARTHQUAKE: CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY

68. PAKISTAN’S COMMUNITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS NATURAL HAZARDS MAPS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK POLICIES TO MINIMIZE IMPACTS POLICIES TO MINIMIZE IMPACTS PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION/PREVENTION EARLY WARNING EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY POLICY OPTIONS