1. Air Quality Forecast in Santiago, Chile Pablo Ulriksen and Manuel Merino Centro Nacional del Medio Ambiente Universidad de Chile GURME Air Quality Forecasting Workshop Santiago, Chile 13-16 October 2003

2. Air Pollution in Santiago Geographical location Meteorological conditions Urban population and activities

3. Geographical location

4. Santiago City Area

5. Climate Santiago * http://www.atmosfera.cl/

6. Anticyclon subsidence inversion Fig. from R. Sanguineti, CONAMA

7. Surface Wind, Winter afternoon

8. Surface wind, Winter night -71.4-71.2-71.0-70.8-70.6-70.4 -34.0 -33.8 -33.6 -33.4 -33.2 -33.0 LPLA MALL PIRQ QUIL LREI EMAN PAIC POLP LCAÑ LTIL LPIN CODI MPIN PAIN 1 m/s Viento promedio Mensual Julio 1999, 03:00 a 05:45 Hrs

9. Santiago City Statistics Metropolitan Region Population 6 038 974 (40% Country) Santiago City Population 5 392 840 Houses1 473 735 Daily trips~ 8.8 million/day Vehicles~ 950000(56 % catalytic)

10. Santiago City Statistics Labor Force Activities, Santiago Metropolitan Region, 2001 Agriculture3.6 % Industry17.2 % Construction6.8 % Transport8.1 % Commerce21.2 % Finantial Services12.0 % Social and Professional Services30.2 % Mining0.4 % Elec, Water, Gas0.5 %

11. Air Quality Standards Exceedance during 1995 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Days TSPCO 1 h O3O3 PM10CO 8 h Air Quality in Santiago City

12. Maximum AQI values during 1995 Air Quality Index PM10O3COSO2 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Air Quality in Santiago City

13. PM10 Monthly Averages, Santiago, Chile, 1988-2002 (Dicothomous Samplers) 40 80 120 160 200 198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002 Year PM10 (ug/m3)

14. Air Quality Standard Level 1 Alert Level 2 Pre-Emergency

16. PM10 Air Quality Standard and Episode Levels PM10 Air Quality Standard (24 h period): 150 ug/m3N Episode Levels related to PM10 24h concentrations: Level 1 (Alert)195-239 ug/m3 Level 2 (Pre-Emergency)240-329 ug/m3 Nivel 3 (Emergency)330 ug/m3 or higher

17. Definición de Índice de Calidad del Aire para Partículas ICAP y Niveles que definen condiciones de Episodio Concentración MP10 (  g/m 3 ) ICAP 400 300 200 100 200300 Preemergencia Emergencia ( > 330  g/m 3 ) 500400 Alerta Norma de Calidad (150  g/m 3 ) Bueno a Regular

18. Meteorological Conditions Related to PM10 Episodes (J. Rutllant and R. Garreaud, 1995) Episodes Type A(Anticyclonic conditions, Coastal Low) Episodes Type BPF(Pre-Frontal Conditions)

19. Episodio Tipo A Mapa de 500 hPa

20. Episodio Tipo A Mapa de Superficie y Espesor 1000-500 hPa

21. Radiosondeo Quintero 17 Mayo 1998- 08 hora local-A

22. Temperatura y H.R. en Lo Prado

23. Episodio Tipo BPF Mapa de 500 hPa

24. Episodio Tipo BPF Mapa de superficie y Espesor 1000-500 hPa

25. Quintero 08 Abril 1998- 08 hora local- BPF

26. Ocurrencia de episodios Tipo A y BPF (Abril-Sep 1997-2003)

27. Condiciones Meteorológicas y MP10 Episodios Alta del Pacífico Inestabilidad post-frontal Actividad frontal 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 PM-10 PROMEDIO Episodios Tipos A y BPF Alta del Pacífico Inestabilidad post-frontal Actividad frontal

28. Temperatura y H.R. en Lo Prado

30. Episodio Pudahuel 26 Junio 2001

31. Meteorological Index (PMCA) Air Pollution Meteorological Potential (PMCA) related to PM10 in Santiago (Represent an inverse of Ventilation factor) 5 Index Classes: 1 Low 2 Low to Medium 3 Medium 4 Medium to High 5 High Each Index Class is associated to one or more synoptic and mesoscale configurations Upper air variables ranges associated to each Index Class. Meteorological conditions follow up and analysis support expert forecast.

32. Meteorological Index Classes Class 1 Low Active Frontal Systems Intense Instability Class 2 Low to Medium Frontal Systems Instability Intense Humid Air Advection Segregated Cold Lows Class 3 Medium Anticyclone Conditions Light Humid Air Advection Class 4 Medium to High Type A Episode Type BPF Episode Medium Zonal Circulation Index Class 5 High Intense Type A Episode Intense Type BPF Episode Low Zonal Circulation Index Episode Conditions

33. Meteorological Index Classes Objective Classification Rules based on selected upper air forecasted variables

34. Daily Meteorological Index (PMCA) and PM10 time series

35. Air Quality Forecasting System for Santiago Forecast Requirements: Next day PM10 maximum 24 h value estimated at each monitoring station Forecast Accuracy > 65% at each monitoring station Independent expert validation Operational considerations: –Report episode levels not forecasted –Report changes in meteorological conditions that affect episode declarations –Report monitor stations perturbations that affect representativity

36. Air Quality Forecasting System for Santiago CENMA Air Quality Forecast Program: Use all the information and forecast tools available Operational use of forecast tested methods Final forecast decision by expert meteorologist Assure timely report deliver 2 persons (at least) dedicated every day, 7 days per week Permanent interaction with counterparts Permanent internal evaluation of analysis and forecast results Search Expert Evaluation and Recommendations

37. Air Quality Forecasting System for Santiago Conceptual Squeme Meteorological Conditions Synoptic and Mesoscale Meteorological Conditions Basin and Urban Scale Air Quality Emissions Meteorological Conditions Synoptic and Mesoscale Meteorological Conditions Basin and Urban Scale Air Quality Emissions Meteorological Index (PMCA) Present (Observed) Conditions Future (Forecast) Conditions

38. Air Quality Forecasting System for Santiago Data Sources

39. Air Quality Forecasting System for Santiago Meteorological Conditions Synoptic and Mesoscale Meteorological Conditions Basin and Urban Scale Air Quality Emissions Numerical Weather Forecast Models: NCEP (AVN), NOGAPS, ECMRF ETA (CPTEC Brasil), MM5 (U.Chile) CENMA Local Scale Meteorological Forecast (Meteorological Index, PMCA) Statistical Model (J. Cassmassi) Future (Forecast) Conditions Day of Week Air Quality Variation Data Sources

40. Regional Meteorological Network supporting Air Quality Forecast

41. Continuous monitoring: PM10 CO SO2 NOx O3 HC Meteorology Air Quality Monitoring Network in Santiago (MACAM2, 1997 )

42. Air Quality Forecast Model PM10 Forecast Model for Santiago Developed by J. Cassmassi (SCAQMD, California) Statistical relationships obtained by Multilinear Regression, PM10 maximum 24h values estimated for each monitoring station, one day in advance. Variables: –Observed: upper air meteorology, PM10 concentrations, week variation of PM10 (subrogate for emission variations) –Forecast and observed: Meteorological Conditions Index (PMCA) Data period: –Model Development: 1997-1998, April – Sep –Model Validation: 1999, April – Sep Independent evaluation: H. Fuenzalida, U. de Chile

43. Meteorological Index Forecast Evaluation Air Quality Forecast Evaluation

44. Air Quality Forecast Model Evaluation General agreement of observed and predicted values Over–prediction of Episode Level 1 Alert (False Alerts)

45. Air Quality Forecast Evaluation PM10 Observed and Forecast Values, March-Sep 2002

46. Air Quality Forecast Results PM10 Mean Concentration Increase last years

47. Air Quality Forecast Results PM10 Episode days Increase last years

48. Discussion Meteorology Index Forecast shows good perfomance Posible improvements: Refined NWP models for this Region Continue meteorology - air quality relationships analysis Air Quality Forecast: Adjust statistical model to air quality scenario changes Test other approaches (MOS, neural network, pattern classification,...?) Study Santiago North West Sector, where highest PM10 levels are observed.