1. P 2 ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820 Prediction, Protection & Reduction of Orbital Exposure to Collision Threats 63 rd International Astronautical Congress Naples, 5 October 2012 Towards a European Collision Warning and Avoidance Centre BURAK YAGLIOGLU Dr. ELİF KUTDEMİR, Dr. EGEMEN IMRE, ÖZGÜN YILMAZ

2. 63 rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012 Page 2 Outline Introduction Current Conditions and Standardized Operations The European Collision Warning Avoidance Centre (ECWAC) Conclusions

3. 63 rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012 Page 3 Introduction Space assets becoming more critical for many aspects of the daily life More small scale operators to launch space assets Protection of the space assets Prevention is better than cure Well protected big players: Not enough! Any collision in space > faster cascade > everyone loses How to enable small players to protect themselves?

4. 63 rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012 Page 4 Environmental Characteristics LEOMEOGEO Object Population Characteristics Very high density of both trackable (~5%, > 5cm.) and non trackable objects Low density of trackable (>0.4 m.) and non trackable objects High density of trackable (>1 m.) objects, stable regions are more populated Conjunction Characteristics Impact velocities associated with conjunctions are high and collision risk is higher around polar regions Relatively the lowest risk of conjunction with objects in space Impact velocities associated with conjunctions are relatively lower * However, it has to be taken into account in radiation shielding design and in the operations phase. Based on the analysis performed using the ESA MASTER 2009 software. Good prediction High risk Catastrophic results Reasonable prediction Very low risk Catastrophic results?? OK prediction Low risk Catastrophic results??

5. 63 rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012 Page 5 Overview of Collision Avoidance Operations Rough Assessment Fine Assessment Manoeuvre Planning Manoeuvre Decision Post Manoeuvre Activity JSpOC (CSMs, TLE data) RADAR (RADAR data for chaser) Flight Dynamics (Precise orbit data for target satellite) PoC > PoC threshold (Platform and Mission Constraints/Considerations) Operator

6. 63 rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012 Page 6 Main Problem While big operators are able to implement standard procedures with access to: all sorts of data, tools and sensors to check for possible risks and refine the data with further sensor measurements, most other operators have varying degrees of awareness and capabilities regarding conjunction prediction, analysis and collision avoidance manoeuvring.

7. 63 rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012 Page 7 ECWAC

8. 63 rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012 Page 8 ECWAC More Ground and Space Based Sensors Consultancy in S/C and Mission Design New Service Better Collision Risk Indicators

9. 63 rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012 Page 9 ECWAC Service Available to Everyone Service Available to Everyone Service Available to Everyone

10. 63 rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012 Page 10 Proposed Improvements Better Risk Analysis Data (For Everyone) Improved the observation sensor network for better quality Standardized risk analysis tools through a common access point Better and Standardized Manoeuvre Planning Better understanding of the conjunction information Standardized tools for manoeuvre planning Standardized conjunction analysis tools to be made available during the manoeuvre planning stage

11. 63 rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012 Page 11 Proposed Improvements Collision Avoidance as a Part of Routine Operations A well established operational procedure with all sorts of necesssary information The measures should be initiated as early as possible The state of the conjunction event chain should be well documented and communicated Collision Avoidance as a Part of Design Enhance the flexibility of mission concept to account for the risk reduction operations Establish a telemetry based system diagram including troubleshooting and problem indicators

12. 63 rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012 Page 12 Conclusions Space debris problem is NOT going away! Small operators are posing a significant threat for everyone (including themselves!) Europe can lead the way by extending SSA: ECWAC! Through ECWAC, more awareness, more information and more tools to be made available: At design stage During regular operations When handling a conjunction event

13. 63 rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012 Page 13 QUESTIONS GRAZIE! burak.yaglioglu@tubitak.gov.tr