1. Climate Change Impacts on Georgia’s Natural Resources Steven McNulty, Ph.D. Research Ecologist USDA Forest Service Raleigh, NC

2. Global change impacts range from the certain to the unknown

3. Certain change Atmospheric CO 2 is increasing and will continue to increase for the foreseeable future due to human emissions of fossil fuel and land clearing

4. Northern Hemisphere Carbon Emissions Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000

5. Atmospheric CO 2 Concentrations Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000

7. Very Likely Impacts In Georgia Forests Increased Population Increased Fire Fuel loads Increased Air Temperature

8. Atmospheric CO 2 Concentrations Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000

9. Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000

10. “..model estimates that take into account both greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols are consistent with observations over this period” Stott et al, Science 2000

12. Simulated Temperature over the US Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000

13. Total Population 1990 (NPA)

14. Total Population 2045 (NPA)

15. Increase (%) in Population from 1990 to 2045 (NPA)

16. Total Down Woody Material (Mg/ha) for mixed hardwood & coniferous tree species based on 2001-2002 FIA P3 county data Note: two counties have no data available (depicted in white)

18. Likely Impacts On Georgia Forests (with and without climate change) Inter-annual precipitation variability

19. Percent of the continental US with a much above normal proportion of total annual precipitation from 1-day extreme events more than 2 inches Karl et al. 1996

20. Uwharrie National Forest Current Soil Erosion Map

21. Areas of Soil Erosion By 2030 On UNF

22. Likely Impacts On Georgia Forests (with and without climate change) Water supply Stress

23. Water Demand (Use)

24. Water Availability Supply Demand Climate Land use change Population

25. Water Supply Stress Index (WSSI) WSSI = Total water demand from all sectors –recharge Total water supply (PPT + ground water)

26. Change in Water Stress (WSSIR) to assess relative change in WSSI between the base year water stress (1990) and another year water stress 100*)1)( - WSSI 1990 WSSI d WSSIRd =

27. Georgia Water Stress Hot/Dry year (2043) with ground water available Hot/Dry year (2043) without ground water available Warm/Wet year (2045) with ground water available Warm/Wet year (20450 without ground water available

28. Mean Temperature Predicted by Had2CMSul for 2043 Hot dry year

29. Total Precipitation Predicted by Had2CMSul for 2043 Hot dry year

30. Mean Temperature Predicted by Had2CMSul for 2045 Warm wet year

31. Total Precipitation Predicted by Had2CMSul for 2045 Warm wet year

32. Water Supply Stress Index for 2045 wet year with groundwater

33. WSSI Ratio for 1990:2045 wet year with groundwater

34. Water Supply Stress Index for 2045 wet year with NO groundwater

35. WSSI Ratio for 1990:2045wet year with NO groundwater

36. Water Supply Stress Index for 2043 dry year with groundwater

37. WSSI Ratio for 1990:2043dry year with groundwater

38. Water Supply Stress Index for 2043 dry year with NO groundwater

39. WSSI Ratio for 1990:2043dry year with NO groundwater

40. Likely Impacts In Georgia Forests (with and without climate change) Extended growing season and warming

41. The increase in growing season length over the last 50 years averaged for eight stations in Alaska having the longest and most consistent temperature records.

42. PEcon Hardwood Volume by FIA Survey Unit Had2CMSul Climate Scenario (2000)

43. PEcon Hardwood Volume by FIA Survey Unit Had2CMSul Climate Scenario (2025)

44. PEcon Hardwood Volume by FIA Survey Unit Had2CMSul Climate Scenario (2050)

45. PEcon Harvest Volume by FIA Survey Unit Had2CMSul Climate Scenario Natural Pine, Mixed Pine and Hardwoods (2000)

46. PEcon Harvest Volume by FIA Survey Unit Had2CMSul Climate Scenario Natural Pine, Mixed Pine and Hardwoods (2025)

47. PEcon Harvest Volume by FIA Survey Unit Had2CMSul Climate Scenario Natural Pine, Mixed Pine and Hardwoods (2050)

48. Timberland Acreage Shift in Georgia 1993 - 2040: No Climate Change Baseline

49. Timberland Acreage Shift in Georgia by 2040 with Had2CMSul Climate Change

50. > 25% DECLINE 5%-25% DECLINE <5% CHANGE 5%-25% INCREASE Timberland Acreage Shift 1993 – 2040: No Climate Change Baseline

51. Timberland Acreage Shifts by 2040 Due to Hadley Climate Change 5%-25% DECLINE <5% CHANGE 5%-25% INCREASE

54. Unlikely Impacts In Southeastern Forests (dependent of climate change)

55. Slash pine

56. Loblolly pine Iverson et. al GTR NE265

57. Sweetgum Iverson et. al GTR NE265

58. Longleaf pine

59. Unknown Impacts In Southeastern Forests (dependent of climate change) Increasing CO 2 on forest growth Insect and disease impacts Integrated stress impacts