1. Protecting our Health from Climate Change: a Training Course for Public Health Professionals Chapter 2: Weather, Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate Change

2. Overview: This Module  Define terms  Discusses climate change and how has it been determined that humans are influencing the climate  Shows some of the climatic changes that have occurred to date  Shows how climate change will affect the weather for decades to centuries

3. Weather, Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate Change  Definitions  The greenhouse effect  Detection and attribution of climate change –What changes have occurred –What changes are projected

4. Definitions  Climate is what you expect –Based on 30-year averages –Weather is what we experience day-to-day  Climate variability –Short-term fluctuations around the average weather –Includes ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation)  Climate change –Operates over decades or longer –General circulation models (GCMs) Scenarios, not predictions

5. IPCC 2007a

6. Global Temperature Variations on Three Time Scales Last million years Last 10,000 years Last 1,000 years Folland et al. 1990

7. Temperature over Greenland over Past 17,000 Years Alley 2000

8. 1,000 Years of Changes in Carbon Emissions, CO 2 Concentrations, and Temperature

9. IPCC 2007a

10. IPCC 2007b

12. Global and Continental Temperature Change IPCC 2007b

13. Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases over the Last 10,000 Years

14. Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases in the Past 2,000 Years IPCC 2007b

15. Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration and Temperature Change Projected concentrations of CO 2 during the 21st century are 2-4 times pre-industrial levels

16. Global Average Surface Temperature IPCC 2007b

17. Surface Temperature Anomalies

18. Projected Surface Temperatures IPCC 2007b

19. Land Areas Warm More than the Oceans with the Greatest Warming at High Latitudes Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990. Global average in 2085 = 3.1°C. IPCC 2007b

20. Effect of Extreme Temperatures When the Mean Temperature Increases IPCC 2007b

21. Observed, Modeled, and Projected Precipitation IPCC 2007b

22. Some Areas are Projected to Become Wetter, Others Drier Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990. IPCC 2007b

24. Palmer Drought Severity Index

25. IPCC 2007b Recent Trends in Climate Sensitive Indicators

26. Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ( o C) IPCC 2007b

27. Sea Level Rise IPCC 2007b

28. IPCC (2007b) Conclusions