1. International Migration and Economic Development Robert E.B. Lucas Boston University

2. Adult Migrants In EU-15 By region of origin (2000) Data Source: OECD Database on Expatriates and Immigrants, 2004

3. Given widening income and demographic gaps migration pressures will continue to grow

4. Medium Population Growth Projections Annual Growth 2005-2050: Ages 15-29

5. Pressures to emigrate often reflect –failure to create jobs –failure to maintain security Emigration option is a critical safety valve

6. Average Unemployment Rates Select Countries of Origin: 1990-2004 (approx).

7. Refugees Originating Per Thousand Population (2003)

8. Despite growing economic gaps, migration has grown less quickly than trade and financial flows

10. Migration is not a substitute for development Some risk of long-term dependence on migration

11. Migrants are the big winners Despite commercialization of migration These gains to migrants are a form of development

12. But migration can have important impacts on development at home Not all impacts are positive

13. Poverty alleviation greatest from low-skill circular migration High levels of remittances reach poor Low skill workers at home benefit

14. Reported Remittances Sent per Migrant (2000) Source: IMF Balance of Payments Statistics and UN Trends in Migrant Stock

15. But migration of low skilled workers to OECD is largely from neighboring countries

16. Low-Skill Migration Rates to OECD

17. Low Education Adult Migrants In EU-15 By region of origin (2000) Data Source: OECD Database on Expatriates and Immigrants, 2004

18. South-South Migration Dominates For Low Skill Workers From Low Income Countries Most is irregular Calls for bilateral/regional agreements

19. High Skill Migration to OECD Growing Rapidly Percent of tertiary educated population abroad in OECD: 2000 Source: Mapped from Docquier and Marfouk (2005)

20. Tertiary Educated, Non-OECD Adults In EU-15 By region of origin (2000) Data Source: OECD Database on Expatriates and Immigrants, 2004

21. High Skill Migration to N America Dominates Expatriates in OECD Countries: 2000

22. Distribution of Tertiary Educated Population From E Europe in OECD: 2000

23. Migration policies of high income countries Not part of coherent development strategy Competition to attract highly skilled (students) Yet protect low skill sectors (agriculture)

24. Low-Skill Temporary Migration Schemes Present a Dilemma Integration and rights of migrants Family separation & social effects Managing return Transferable pension schemes Mode 4 and contracting Cost of re-entry (irregulars)