1. MALTHUSIAN POPULATION THEORY
Annan Saeed

2. Thomas Robert Malthus Thomas Robert Malthus (13 or 14 February
1766 – 23 or 29 December 1834)
Member of The Royal Society of
London
Influential in political economy
and demographic studies

3. An Essay on the Principle of Population
Six editions
published from 1798 to 1826
Wrote in opposition to the popular view in 18th-century Europe (society as improving and in principle as perfectible)
Malthus became hugely influential, and controversial, in economic, political, social and scientific thought  
Malthusianism became an intellectual stepping-stone to the idea of natural selection

4. ASSUMPTIONS Food is an essential component for human existence
Humans have the basic urge to multiply

5. The Principle of Population outlined a fascinating vision of the relationship between ‘population growth’ and what Malthus termed as ‘subsistence’ He argued that population expanded ‘geometrically’ while subsistence increases only at an ‘arithmetic ratio.’

6. Arithmetic and Geometric
Malthus stated that population increases geometrically Thus, increases along the order of 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32...
Subsistence increases arithmetically i.e. It limps along at the rate of 1, 2, 3, 4, …. 

7. Great Britain as a huge farm (fixed acreage)
Potential for rapid population growth
Increase in the output of products (more labour is applied to a fixed amount of land)
Increments to output grow at a declining rate due to the law of diminishing returns

8. Diminishing returns drive up the incremental output of additional labour down to zero
Wage payments eat up entire output of the economy
No nonwage income is available for capital formation
Stationary state, where population has grown to its maximum size and the bulk of the population is living at a bare subsistence level

9. Malthus believed that there is unchecked reproduction by an immoral lower class would lead to geometric (exponential) increases in population" and double every 25 years
Food supplies are in a limited quantity and an area can support a particular population, agriculture productivity would gradually diminish because of decreasing soil fertility

10. Eventually the growth of the population must slow down or it will be stopped or supplies will run out
Malthus stated that if this growth trend were allowed to continue, it would lead to widespread misery for the majority of the people.
Malthus' recommendation for slowing the population growth he called preventive checks

11. Basic Mechanism There are several factors at work:
In a situation of fixed resources, population growth directly affects consumption
With capital as a fixed variable, the production per worker falls with the addition of each new worker—this is the classical law of diminishing returns
An increasing population implies a population with a large base of children who are both consumers and non-producers—thus, less production per capita

12. This implies an in-direct relationship between
At a fixed income, population growth will shift investment from savings and human-capital development to subsistence
Ceteris paribus assumption, where all other variables in the logical equation are assumed constant and fixed
This implies an in-direct relationship between
population and subsistence, where increases
or decreases in one would cause the inverse
in the other

13. MALTHUS AND CLASS STRUCTURE
Malthus was opposed to reform and any type of aid to the poor or lower working class—primarily because of his theory of population
For Malthus, the ultimate difference between the rich and the poor was the high moral character of the rich
Only the wealthy or moral upper class of people would keep the population rate in mind
If everyone's wealth and income increased through reforms that had the effect of wealth or income redistribution, the lower class, would respond by having more children

14. Thus majority of people to return again to their subsistence level of living
Thus any policy that favoured or helped the lower working class resulted in a redistribution of wealth and income
Thus increasing the number of poor, Malthus opposed any such policy

15. The established class structure would inevitably re-emerge even after reforms are successful Because of inevitable consequences of natural laws

16. HOW WILL THE CONDITIONS GO BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE EVEN AFTER THE SUCCESS OF WELFARE POLICIES?

17. Human society could never be perfected
Man will lead a satisfied life as long as his family is well fed
As soon as human population would feel constraints in food supply due to increase in population, he would again work hard to provide enough for his family

18. It leads to an increase in agricultural production to provide for all
Man would be back to his complacent stage, where all his needs would be fulfilled
The cycle of overpopulation and food shortage, all over again
A time will come when the excessive use of agricultural land will not be able to produce enough to support the growing population thus resulting in famines and positive checks on population

19. Proposed Solutions

20. PREVENTIVE CHECKS
Preventive checks as methods that people consciously use to slow down the rapid growth of the population
Late marriages, celibacy, and spacing children further apart 
Postponing marriages, couples could take responsibility for the number of children they have

21. Reduce birth rates
This idea of Preventive checks was aimed only at the rich as he thought poor people did not have the capacity to exercise such restraint
In his opinion, poor should be kept poor
He suggested jobs be created for them, and increase food production and educational opportunities

22. Positive Checks
If preventive checks were not observed, then the rapid growth of the population would be stopped by nature
Malthus called them Positive checks
Population would experience premature deaths

23. "with one mighty blow, level the population"
War, for example, would be an able tool for depopulation
Epidemics, plagues, natural disasters, famines, and other pestilence will
"with one mighty blow, level the population"
(Malthus, 1798)

24. Moral Restraint Included in the second edition
One should refrain from marriage till the time he is capable of supporting a family with food, clothing and shelter
“He (Malthus) went so far as to claim that moral restraint on a wide scale was the best means indeed, the only means of easing the poverty of the lower classes”
(Geoffrey Gilbert)

25. Having been a clergy, Malthus validated his theory on moral grounds that suffering was a way of making human beings realize the virtues of hard work and moral behaviour

26. CRITICISMS
Karl Marx: Argued that Malthus failed to recognize the potential of human population to increase food supply. He is accused by many to have failed to comprehend man's ability to use science and technology to increase food supply to meet the needs of an increasing population

27. Social Darwinism: High fertility was thought to be a sign of the strength and vitality of a given nation or race (more numbers of citizens equalled greater military security and greater economic growth) Governments wanted to encourage fertility amongst those who were judged ‘fittest’ Physically and Morally
Nazi eugenics prgm