1. Adaptation & Mitigation Agriculture and Climate Change Presented to: Senate Standing Committee on Agriculture and Forestry April 29 th, 2003. By: Siân Mooney University of Wyoming

2. Climate, production, prices, economic outcomes  Biophysical/production changes Yields and total production Suitable crop varieties and crop choices Production area  Market prices Will change in response to changes in global production  Economic Outcomes Combination of biophysical changes and market price changes

3. Possible Climate Change  Global average temperatures will increase by approx 2 o C by 2050  Regional and local changes most important  Canadian Prairies (GCGM1, Hadley, CSIRO, GFDL) 2-3 o C increase in summer temperatures 2.5-4.5 o C increase in winter temperatures Small increase or decrease in summer precipitation Increase in winter precipitation

4. Climate predictions Source: H. Hengeveld. 2000. Projections for Canada’s Climate Future. Environment Canada.

5. Biophysical/Production Changes  Yields Possible yield increase in major crops as a result of CO 2 fertilization This could also improve water use efficiency Precipitation uncertainty – quantity and timing  Land area Possible for agricultural production to increase in Northern Canada – however limited by soil availability –Estimate additional 1.44 million ha (north of 55 o N) –Possible expansion of southern areas too

6. Market Prices – Overall Economic Outcomes  Prices for agricultural commodities – globally determined Global production patterns –Changes in Canadian productivity RELATIVE to the rest of the world are important  Overall economic outcome is determined by biophysical and economic conditions E.g high yields and very low prices might not be as beneficial as low yields and high prices Overall outcome is dependent on relative changes

7. Adaptation?  Adaptation response is likely to be very spatially variable – unlikely to be a universally “best” response  Economic outcomes will be driven by biophysical capability (local) and pricing changes (global) – need to maintain an industry that is flexible  Economic incentives – aimed at encouraging adaptation based on current knowledge could be misplaced – could reduce the incentives to make necessary changes

8. Adaptation assistance  Producer education  Technological/Informational Development of crop varieties Improvements in forecasting (medium-long term) Risk management tools

9. GHG Mitigation - opportunities  Agricultural soils can sequester soil C – reducing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs  Estimates between 0.1 to 0.6 MT C/ha/yr  Possible to sequester C in agricultural soils at Prices competitive with forestry  Although possible to sequester a small quantity per hectare, Canada is land rich - millions of hectares so overall could sequester a large quantity

10. Relative Cost of sequestration Source: Antle, Capalbo, Mooney, Elliott and Paustian 2001.

11. Designing a C trading scheme  Two main trading designs, payment for practice or payment per credit  Payment per credit is the most economically efficient – however will have measurement and monitoring costs  These need not be prohibitively costly

12. Benefits from C sequestration  Improvements in soil fertility  Increased diversification for producers  Could reduce the rate or amount of climate change