1. Demographic Challenges and Opportunities in the Waikato Region: An A-B-C Approach to Population Ageing HAMILTON in Context Natalie Jackson © Professor of Demography Director, Population Studies Centre 2010 1

2. NZ: Will grow, but.. Actual and Projected 2Stats NZ (2009 base) PastProjected

3. Hamilton City – also projected to grow, but..

4. Does NZ need 8 million? …. A debate we don’t need to have he tangata he tangata he tangata Demographic interpretation: tis composition tis composition tis composition 4

5. As elsewhere, New Zealand is ‘ageing’ 1966 (8.3% 65+) 2009 (12.8% 65+) Percentage at each age5 37 26

6. 6 What does it mean to ‘age’? Population Ageing in four dimensions Numerical Ageing –Increase in numbers of elderly (primarily caused by increased life expectancy) Structural ageing –Increase in proportions of elderly (primarily caused by low/falling birth rates)** Natural decline –More elderly than children   more deaths than births Absolute decline –Inability of ‘replacement migration’ to replace the ‘lost’ births and increased deaths

7. NZ Elderly: Children 7 Projected Crossover 2023 Projections: Stats NZ (2009) Medium Variant Series 5 (ANM 10,000; TFR 1.9)

8. 8 Projected Change by Broad Age Group Series 5 NZ 65+ YearsAll other age groups combined 2009-2016 (7.3%) 26.4%4.5% 2009-2026 (15.7%) 70.8%7.6% 8Stats NZ (2009) Series 5 = TFR 1.9; ANM 10,000

9. NZ Labour Market Entrants : Exits 9 Projected Crossover 2021-2051? Projections: Stats NZ (2009) Medium Variant Series 5 (ANM 10,000; TFR 1.9)

10. Enter: a demographically tight labour market Australia 2007-2009 10

11. NZ: TA’s with negative entry/exit ratios 11 39% 36%

12. Waikato Regions Labour Market Entry/Exit Ratios 12 Stats NZ TableBuilder Estimated Subnational Populations

13. 13

14. 14 The A-B-C of Population Ageing Accept –Population ageing has been unfolding for a long time – it is coming to a town near you Buffer –Revisit /revise current policies, practices, plans (UN 2001) Celebrate –We ‘know’ a lot about this future; we can strategise for it positively; it will contain many opportunities

15. Challenges and Opportunities for the Waikato A story in age structures 15

16. The growth forecast (Annual growth rates) Waikato grows under all scenarios 16 Stats NZ (2006) Series 5 (TFR 1.9; ANM 10,000; medium mortality)

17. But the Waikato is also ageing -just a little slower than total NZ 1996 (11% 65+) 2006 (12.5% 65+) Percentage at each age17

18. Almost all the growth is at older ages Projected Waikato Region 2011-2021 and 2011-2031 (Medium Series 5) 18 Stats NZ (2006) Series 5 = National TFR 1.9; ANM 10,000; medium mortality

19. Hamilton City – growth and ageing

20. 20 The ageing forecast: Broad Age Groups Series MEDIUM Hamilton City Waikato 65+ YearsAll other age groups combined 2011-2021 (13%) (7.1%) 41.3% 38.3% 9.5% 2.2% 2011-2031 (25%) (12.4%) 88.4% 79.4% 17.3% 1.8% 20Stats NZ (2006) Series 5 = National TFR 1.9; ANM 10,000; medium mortality

21. .. some of Waikato’s regions are ageing faster than others: Thames-Coromandel (23% 65+)Hauraki (19% 65+) Percentage at each age 2009 (2006 unshaded)21

22. Also faster than Waikato average: Matamata-Piako (16.5% 65+)Waipa (15.0% 65+) Percentage at each age 2009 (2006 unshaded)22

23. Te Awamutu faster than Waipa.. Te Awamutu (19.7% 65+)Waipa (15.0% 65+) Percentage at each age 2009 (2006 unshaded)23

24. Some are ageing slower: Franklin (11.5% 65+)Otorohanga (11.4% 65+) Percentage at each age 2009 (2006 unshaded)24

25. And somewhat slower again: Hamilton City (10.4% 65+)Waikato District (10.7% 65+) Percentage at each age 2009 (2006 unshaded)25

26. 26

27. So.. what would the ‘Tight 5’ and ‘Big 11’ look like?: Tight Five (12.0% 65+)Big 11 (13.1% 65+) Percentage at each age 2009 (2006 unshaded)27

28. How well would such amalgamations serve the underlying demographic constituencies?

29. Competition for workers End of unemployment?

30. Workers: who you ‘gonna call? 30Stats NZ Estimated Resident Population 2009, Waikato and NZ (unshaded) MalesFemales Demographic Dividend

31. A challenge.. and an opportunity 31

32. Who will be the workers?

33. 2006 Census: Waikato, European and Maori percentage by age European/NZ (14.2% 65+)Maori (4.2% 65+) Percentage at each age Census 2006 33 38 23

34. Waikato Region by Ethnicity* 2006 34 MaleFemale *Stats NZ Multiple Count Ethnicity

35. Hamilton City by Ethnicity* 2006 35 MaleFemale *Stats NZ Multiple Count Ethnicity

36. And what will be the industry?

37. Stats NZ Customised Database Waikato’s Grain, Sheep and Beef Farmers (5,000)

38. Stats NZ Customised Database Waikato’s Dairy Farmers (11,000)

39. Stats NZ Customised Database Waikato’s Medical and Dental (1,695)

40. Watch this space.. Accept Buffer (revisit those policies) Celebrate (advance warning) 40

41. 41 There is more to population ageing than meets the eye

42. Population Studies Centre will become NIDEA – The National Institute for Demographic and Economic Analysis – on November 24 th 2010 natalie.jackson@waikato.ac.nz Thankyou 42