1. Chapter 3 Population Describe global population distribution Examine causes and consequences of population change To understand the Malthusian argument To describe demographic and economic characteristics of a population To understand the Demographic Transition To describe the baby boom Understanding economic migration

2. Population Explodes after the Industrial Revolution

3. Population Density

4. Cartogram of Global Population

7. Population Growth over Time and Space World population growth is slowing Still adding ca. 80 million per year Most in developing countries Some countries are losing population (Russia, E. Europe, coming in Japan) Forces affecting population change ∆P = BR – DR + I – O or ∆P = NGR +NMR

8. Malthusian Theory Assumed that human populations would continue to grow geometrically And assumed that food production would grow arithmetically, due to diminishing marginal returns (or less than arithmetically) Inputs Output arithmetic Output if there are diminishing returns

11. Malthus’ Expectations & Reality Failed to see impact of Industrial Revolution on Food production Failed to see the opening of new lands (especially in the new world) Failed to anticipate falling fertility rates Time scale on this diagram is not realistic

12. Neo-Malthusians: The Club of Rome and The Limits to Growth

14. Pioneering Dynamic Systems Modeling

16. Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth

17. Demographic Transition Theory Based on Western European & North American History

18. Stages in Demographic Transition Theory Stage 1: Preindustrial Society – high and unstable birth & death rates, population growth rate slow, importance of children, low life expectancy Stage 2: Early Industrial Society - high birth rates, falling death rate, high population growth Stage 3: Late Industrial Society – low death rate, falling birth rate, high population growth Stage 4: Post Industrial Society – low birth and death rates, low population growth

20. Geography of Birth Rates Strongly Correlated with level of economic development

21. Percent of population under age 18

24. U.S. Recent Change in Birth Rates

25. Geography of Death Rates Evidence of Demographic Transition? Compare scale with map of birth rates

28. Shifting Causes of Death Stage 1 – Poor Health Care Stage 2 – Lower infant mortality rates with better diet and public health measures (Figure 3.19) Stage 3 – similar to Stage 2 Stage 4 – Few deaths from infectious diseases, more from social malaise (Figures 3.22 and 3.23). Some countries below ZPG

29. Population Growth and Income

30. The Slowing of Population Growth

33. Issues similar to The Limits to Growth

34. Future Population Levels Fertility levels remain as they are now Fertility levels decline

35. Contrasts between Malthus and the Demographic Transition Fertility is socially constructed, not taken for granted Population does not grow uncontrollably, but rather stabilizes at a slow growth rate as birth and death rates fall However, absolute population growth is still large (ca. 80 million per annum) due to the large base (current 6+ billion) Total future population depends on fertility rate trends in less developed regions (Figure 3.29)

36. Criticisms of Demographic Transition Theory Based on Western societies (Europe, North America, Japan) Not inevitable that there will be a fall in fertility rates in less developed countries Even with dramatically lowered fertility rates We cannot predict the length of time it will take these countries to move from Stages 2 and 3 to Stage 4 (if they do)