1. Private Agricultural R&D in Pakistan: Preliminary Findings Anwar naseem

2. Private R&D Expenditures South Asia 2 MeasuresPakistanIndiaBangladesh Private R&D (In 2008 Mill US$) 8.925110-20 Private R&D as % of Ag GDP 0.120.07-0.13 # of scientists?2190119 Ag GDP (In 2008 Bill US$) 9021815

3. Agricultural R&D in Pakistan Number in parenthesis represents sample size. 1 In US$1,000, for year 1985 2 In US$1,000. for year 1987. (exchange rate of 17 Rs/$) 3 In US$1,000 for year 1998 (exchange rate of 45 Rs/$) 4 In 2000 constant 1,000 US $ based on a survey of firms in 2003. The ASTI survey did not provide investments by the listed sub-sectors.

4. Today’s presentation on the determinants of private R&D focusing on the role of seed and biotech industry in Pakistan Here you could say that why you focus on seed industry alone…in Pakistan – show the next slide quickly the R&D in Pakistan in the last 3 decades… - The growth is tremendous in the last decade – partly due to demand for seeds – private sector entry and use of biotech seeds esp. bt cotton (first illegal and now legalized) Pray and Fuglie (2001), in their paper on the growth of R&D by private seed firms in Asia, used an induced innovation framework in which the major factors determining the levels of R&D were expected demand for new technology, the ability of science-based firms to appropriate the benefits from R&D, the technological opportunities—a combination of the expected costs of research and innovation and their assessment of the probability of successful innovation—and government policies. So here I start with summarizing the R&D expenditure and spread of seed and biotech in India Conceptual frame work of how scientific breakthroughs in biotech could affect firms’ decisions to do research through 3 pathways based on Pray and Fuglie 1.Research productivity 2.Demand for innovations 3.Stronger appropriability Look at data on R&D in the seed industry in Pakistan to see if it provides support for each pathway 4

5. Size of the Seed Market in Pakistan $ million Source: 1 Calculated from the estimates given by Ali and Ali (2004); the total value did not include sales of sunflower and vegetables as they were not available; 2 Hussain (2011); Notes: 3 Of the total value of US$23 million, the hybrids seeds constitute around US$15 million; 4 Hybrids constitute US$29 million of the total.

6. Seed R&D investment in Pakistan Private firms

7. Seed supply sources Four different actors: 4 provincial seed corporations or public sector enterprises; 720 registered domestic (national) seed firms; 5 multinational seed companies (MNCs) and informal (local) or farmer seed systems Of the total seeds supplied through various sources during 2008-09: -private sector - 12.6% -public sector organizations - 4.3%, -unorganized, local or farmer-based - 66% -Private firms are active in the provision of seeds of rice (65%); maize (5.4%), cotton (42%) and more than 25% of vegetables -Seed imports (2%) important in crops such as maize, vegetables and sunflower

8. Innovations in the seed sector Number of crop varieties released by public vs. private sector since 1947 to 2011

9. Yields of major crops in Pakistan

10. Cotton R&D and cultivars in Pakistan Pakistan is the fourth largest cotton producer in the world after China, India and USA, significant source of its foreign exchange Bt cotton varieties officially approved in 2010- but illegally since 2002 The federal research institute National Institute for Biotechnology and Genetic Engineering (NIBGE) first developed a Bt variety in 2004 using MON 531 event. Pakistan Agricultural Research Center survey (2008) indicated about 39 varieties of Bt cotton available in the market in 2007 An estimated 2.4 mill ha area under Bt cotton (both approved &unapproved varieties) i.e., 2.4 million Ha 75 % of the total cotton area –kharif 2010 (ISAAA, 2010) The private Bt cultivars supply >90 % of the Bt cotton seeds (12,298 t in 2011)(Personal communication with FSC&RD, Islamabad). Of the 9 official cultivars released, private sector Bt varieties (6 of them) dominate both the market sales and area covered (65 %)

11. Cotton: Bt cotton approvals and cultivars in Pakistan

12. Maize production in Pakistan Maize production in Pakistan has nearly doubled in the past decade from 1.6 Mt in 2000 to 3.3 Mt by 2009. This is largely due to increases in yields from MVs and the introduction of spring maize – resulted an increase of 20-25 % in acreage annually Hybrids, for example, accounted for 60% of total production though occupied only 25% of total area

13. Maize seed industry in Pakistan

14. Hybrid rice Rice, an important food and cash crop, is the third largest crop of Pakistan after wheat and cotton. Planted on an area of 2.8 million hectares (11% of the total cropped area), producing 6.8 Mt, accounts for 17% of the total cereals (MINFAL statistics, 2009). Recently area under hybrid rice increased due to increased yield potential – 15 to 20% than existing commercial varieties especially in the coarse rice sector. The area under hybrid rice production in Pakistan has increased from 971 acres in 2002, when it was first introduced, to 17,714 acres in 2005 and to 50,428 acres in 2006-07 (Bokahri, 2010) Most of the hybrid rice cultivars that are grown in Pakistan are imported from China. Nearly 2500 t of rice hybrid seeds was imported during the year 2009-10 (valued at Rs. 600 million).

15. Hybrid Rice Research in Pakistan