1. Trans-Tasman Migration and Catching Up With Australia About Our Kaussies and Us Jacques Poot Professor of Population Economics, NIDEA and WMS Launch Symposium, November 24 th 2010

2. Hot of the Press: the latest trans-Tasman migration statistics

3. Trans-Tasman migration over the centuries

4. Real GDP per capita: Australia, New Zealand and OECD, 1950-2007

5. Trans-Tasman differences in real income growth have clearly played an important role in net migration But there are many demographic, economic and social “drivers” of gross migration The same phenomena are driving migration flows between Dunedin and Auckland, between Adelaide and Brisbane, and between Auckland and Sydney Trade and capital flows can contribute to “catching up”, migration is a “barometer” of convergence or divergence In today’s world, “catching up” and “falling behind” can occur at the same time: what matters is “who you are” and “where you are” Causes and consequences of trans-Tasman migration

6. The Trans-Tasman born as a percentage of the host population

7. X(t) V(t) NZ population New Zealanders in Australia R(t) V = NZ population who have not yet lived in Australia X = New Zealanders in Australia R = Return migrants from Australia Births & immigration from RoW Deaths & emigration to RoW Emigration to Australia Return migration to NZ Deaths & emigration to RoW Repeat migration to Australia A new perspective: the dynamics of circulation

8. Network effects suggest that the rate of trans- Tasman migration to Australia could be proportional to the number of New Zealanders already in Australia (at a rate of 6.1% per million per year) Return migration is about 8.25% per year NZ natural increase plus net immigration from the rest of the world is 1.57% per year “ Calibrating” the dynamics of 1891-2006 circulation

9. The prediction of this simple circulation model

10. The future of the trans-Tasman Travel Agreement As global mobility continues to increase, migration patterns will become even more complex Migration of those 65 plus from Australia, predominantly return migration, is showing an upward trend Trans-Tasman migration of Maori The impact of climate change Other issues to contemplate....

11. Thank you Jacques.poot@waikato.ac.nz www.waikato.ac.nz/nidea