1. Ronald Wintrobe (1990): The Tinpot and the Totalitarian: An Economic Theory of Dictatorship Presented for The Political Economics Reading Group at ESOP 25/5 2009, Carl Henrik Knutsen

2. Politics in dictatorships  Wintrobe’s early contribution (1990). A growing political economic literature. Some exemplary studies: Olson (1993), Wintrobe (1998), Bueno de Mesquita et al. (2003), Acemoglu and Robinson (2006). + papers discussed in pol.ec. group and several others…  What motivates different dictators?  How do dictators respond to exogenous changes, especially economic shocks?  What policies should Western countries pursue when dealing with different dictatorships?

3. Wintrobe’s contribution  The importance of modelling heterogeneous dictators; more specifically: Explicitly taking into account that different dictators/regimes are motivated by different objectives..  Wintrobe’s two main types of dictators: The Tinpot and the Totalitarian.  1998 book: Adds the Tyrant and the Timocrat  Elaborating on the means at the dictators disposal (loyalty and repression)  Explaining heterogeneous policy responses to similar shocks.  heterogeneous interactions between political actors/structures and the economy.  Policy implications for democratic leaders wanting to maximize freedom abroad

4. Some comments  The historical backdrop. 1990 and the end of Communism. Do Totalitarians still exist?  Other and more refined classifications  Geddes  Linz and Stepan  Hadenius and Teorell  Classifications related to motivation, institutional structure, democracy-dictatorship continuum, other variables?

5. Notation and assumptions  π (L, R) = production function for power, where L is loyalty and R is repression  π ’ L and π ’ R > 0  π ’’ LR > 0  π ’’ LL and π ’’ RR < 0  P R, P L : price/cost of repression, loyalty. Some distinctions in paper between of price paid by dictator for loyalty and price received by suppliers of loyalty.  P L = P L (L, R, PE)  d P L /dL>0, d P L /dR<0, d P L /dPE<0  PE: economic performance  Dictator’s expenditure function:  B = P R R + P L (L, R, PE)L