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Ronald Wintrobe (1990): The Tinpot and the Totalitarian: An Economic Theory of Dictatorship Presented for The Political Economics Reading Group at ESOP 25/5 2009, Carl Henrik Knutsen
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Politics in dictatorships Wintrobe’s early contribution (1990). A growing political economic literature. Some exemplary studies: Olson (1993), Wintrobe (1998), Bueno de Mesquita et al. (2003), Acemoglu and Robinson (2006). + papers discussed in pol.ec. group and several others… What motivates different dictators? How do dictators respond to exogenous changes, especially economic shocks? What policies should Western countries pursue when dealing with different dictatorships?
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Wintrobe’s contribution The importance of modelling heterogeneous dictators; more specifically: Explicitly taking into account that different dictators/regimes are motivated by different objectives.. Wintrobe’s two main types of dictators: The Tinpot and the Totalitarian. 1998 book: Adds the Tyrant and the Timocrat Elaborating on the means at the dictators disposal (loyalty and repression) Explaining heterogeneous policy responses to similar shocks. heterogeneous interactions between political actors/structures and the economy. Policy implications for democratic leaders wanting to maximize freedom abroad
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Some comments The historical backdrop. 1990 and the end of Communism. Do Totalitarians still exist? Other and more refined classifications Geddes Linz and Stepan Hadenius and Teorell Classifications related to motivation, institutional structure, democracy-dictatorship continuum, other variables?
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Notation and assumptions π (L, R) = production function for power, where L is loyalty and R is repression π ’ L and π ’ R > 0 π ’’ LR > 0 π ’’ LL and π ’’ RR < 0 P R, P L : price/cost of repression, loyalty. Some distinctions in paper between of price paid by dictator for loyalty and price received by suppliers of loyalty. P L = P L (L, R, PE) d P L /dL>0, d P L /dR<0, d P L /dPE<0 PE: economic performance Dictator’s expenditure function: B = P R R + P L (L, R, PE)L
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