1. The Timken Company (TKR)
Presented by,
Han Yang
Nurul Alam Rafi
Kannu Priya
Presented on April 24, 2012

2. Agenda Introduction Macro-economy Industry Timken’s Business
Financial analysis
Multiple valuation
DCF valuation
Recommendation

3. Introduction Company: The Timken Company Ticker: TKR Reg. in NYSE
Current market price : $ (Previous close price on 4/23/2012)
PEG = 0.84
Industry : Industrial Machinery GICS Map place:
Founded in 1899 by Henry Timken with two patents on the design of tapered roller bearings.
TKR develops, manufactures, markets and sells products for friction management and mechanical power transmission, alloy steels and steel components.
1 yr implied growth in EPS = 28% Graham g = 1.25%
Greenblatt profitability ratios:
EBIT/TA = 32% EBIT/EV=14.7% Sum= 47%

4. Relationship to economy
The Bearing industry is correlated to Macroeconomic activities
Source: World Bank; Timken 09’, 10’ 10-K

5. Industry overview
Bearing industry in the US generated $7.9 billion revenue in 2011.
The industry is at mature stage
The annual growth rate from 2006 to 2011 is 1.4%
The forecasted annual growth for next 5 years is 2.3%

6. Up and down stream
The up stream of bearing industry is steel industry.
The customers of bearing products include
Transportation industry
Defense industry
Clean energy (wind turbine)

7. Major players in the US
Source: IBIS World

8. Business Overview
Started with two patents on the design of tapered roller bearing, Timken grew to become the world’s largest manufacturer of tapered roller bearing.
10 technology and engineering centers
14 distribution centers and warehouses and
nearly 21,000 employees.
operates in 30 countries and territories.
Have many customers in many industries and no single customer generates 10% or more of total sales or segment sales
Around 66% sales comes from the US market.

9. Anti-Friction Bearings and Adjacent Transmission
Product lines
Anti-Friction Bearings and Adjacent Transmission
Mobile Industry
Process Industry
Aerospace and Defense
Steel

10. Bearings & Power Transmission
Bearings can be of different shapes and sizes.
Have 4 components: 1) the cone or inner race
2)the cup or outer race
3)the rollers in between cup and cone
4)the cage between the rollers
Usage:
To reduce friction where shafts, gears or wheels are used.
To provide high load tolerance
Applications:
Transportation including cars, trucks, heavy trucks, helicopters, airplanes and trains.
Industries including mills, mining, oil and gas extraction and production, gear drives, health and positioning control, wind mills and food processing.

11. Picture source: www.timken.com
Tapered Roller Bearing Ball Bearings Spherical Plain Bearings High Performance Bearings Precision Bearings Aerospace Bearings Integrated Bearing Assemblies Precision Bearing Assemblies
Picture source:

12. Steel
produces more than 450 grades of carbon, micro-alloy and alloy steel, which are sold as ingots, bars and tubes in a variety of chemistries, lengths and finishes and custom made precision steel products for many industries.
Applications:
a wide variety of end products including oil country drill pipe, bits and collars, gears, hubs, axles, crankshafts and connecting rods, bearing races and rolling elements, bushings, fuel injectors, wind energy shafts and other demanding applications, where mechanical power transmission is critical to the end customer.

13. Distribution and Services
Mostly use their own efficient distributors to sell products in Mobile industries, Process Industries and Aerospace and Defense segments.
Has a joint venture named CoLinx, LLC in North America to support sales in Process segment.
Timken provides expert services for bearing maintenance and repair. Total services accounted for less than 5% of the sales last year.

14. Risks
Pricing pressure resulted from high competition in bearing and steel industry and potential over- capacity in Steel industry.
Cyclical nature of many customers and sustained uncertainty in financial market.
Substantial costs and limitations on operation imposed by environmental laws and regulations.

15. Recent Acquisitions and new products
Acquired Drives LLC in 2011.
- Manufactures highly engineered products like precision roller chain, pintle chain, agricultural conveyor chain, engineering class chain, oil filled roller chain and augur products.
Acquired Philadelphia Gear Corp. in 2011.
- provides aftermarket gear box repair services and gear-drive systems for the industrial, energy and military marine sectors, including refining and pipeline systems, mining, cement, pulp and paper making and water management systems

16. Financial analysis – revenue
Timken 08’,09’,10’,11’ 10-Ks

17. Financial analysis – EBIT margin
Timken 08’,09’,10’,11’ 10-Ks

18. Financial analysis – Dep & Capex
Timken 08’,09’,10’,11’ 10-Ks

19. Financial analysis - ROE
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Profit margin
4.9%
5.4%
-4.3%
6.8%
8.8%
Assets turnover
1.03
1.11
0.78
0.97
1.19
Leverage (A/E)
2.23
2.73
2.51
2.15
2.13
ROE
11.41%
16.31%
-8.40%
14.15%
22.24%

20. Anti Friction Bearing and Power Transmission
Comparable Companies
Anti Friction Bearing and Power Transmission
SKF AB
NSK Ltd.
Steel
Tenaris SA
Gerdau SA
Nucor Corp.
Steel Dynamics Inc.

21. Multiples Timken (TKR) SKF (SKFRY.PK) NSK (NPSKY.PK) Price per share $
50.51
25.09
13.64
D/A 9%
14%
35%
P/E 11
13.25
21.72
P/S
.95
1.13
.83
EV/Revenue
.96
1.27
1.08
EV/EBITDA
5.36
7.77
2.29
Revenue $
EBITDA $
EPS $
Anti Friction Bearings
3334
678
3.04
Steel
1836.7
316.5
1.55
Total
5170
924.2
4.59
Data source for multiples: Yahoo Finance

22. Contd. Tenaris (TS) Gerdau (GGB) Nucor (NUE) Steel Dynamics (STLD)
Price per share $
34.92
9.55
39.67
12.89
D/A 4%
31%
25% 0%
P/E
15.48
14.62
16.54
13.46
P/S
2.08
.85
.63
.36
EV/Revenue
2.03
1.12
.72 .6
EV/EBITDA
8.41
8.61
7.32
6.6
Data source for multiples: Yahoo Finance

23. Anti-friction Bearings & Power Transmission
Valuation
Anti-friction Bearings & Power Transmission
Steel
Enterprise Value $
Equity Value per Share $
Equity Value Per Share $
Value per Share $
Weight
P/E
53.20
23.25
76.45
0.25
EV/EBITDA
3,408.33
2,448.13
59.73
EV/Revenue
3,916.86
2,052.51
60.89
P/S
33.42
18.42
51.84
Final Value $
62.23

24. Recommendation Multiple valuation: $ 62.23 DCF valuation: $63.67
Current price: $49.57
Recommendation: buy 200 share at market price – approximately 3% of total portfolio