1. Nebojša Nakićenović International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx Technische Universität Wien Technische Universität Wien xx naki@iiasa.ac.at Sustainable Energy for All, OFID – 19-20 November 2011 Sustainable Energy for All Comments on TF2

2. UN General Assembly resolution 65/151 2030 Energy Goals ● ●Universal Access to Modern Energy ● ●Double Energy Efficiency Improvement ● ●Double Renewable Share in Final Energy Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable

3. #3 Titel des Vortrags Legitimacy of BAU eroding Vision: low carbon narrative → Growing number of actors of change: green businesses cities civil society science IGOs (UNIDO etc.) Drivers of Transformations ”Decarbonization Revolution”

4. #4 Titel des Vortrags Legitimacy of BAU eroding Vision: low carbon narrative legitimacy concepts power “it can be done“ finance, technologies Drivers of Transformations Multiple Drivers of Change

5. #5 Cross-Cutting Issues to be Considered by all the TF: ●Establish Firm Political Commitment by Specific Targets and/or Attractive Investment Incentive Programs ●Create Stable Policy and Regulatory Frameworks Based on Best Practices ●Finance the Transformation by Rendering Energy Investments More Attractive (Guarantees) ●Strengthen Local Capacity and Forge Global Partnerships and Coalitions ●Ensure Accountability and Transparent Reporting thereby Reducing Uncertainties ●Strengthen the Analytical Foundation including Integrated Energy Roadmaps ●Disseminate Information and Facilitate Diffusion of Ideas and Systems

6. #6 Cross-Cutting Issues to be Considered by all the TF: ●Establish Firm Political Commitment by Specific Targets and/or Attractive Investment Incentive Programs ●Create Stable Policy and Regulatory Frameworks Based on Best Practices ●Finance the Transformation by Rendering Energy Investments More Attractive (Guarantees) ●Strengthen Local Capacity and Forge Global Partnerships and Coalitions ●Ensure Accountability and Transparent Reporting thereby Reducing Uncertainties ●Strengthen the Analytical Foundation including Integrated Energy Roadmaps ●Disseminate Information and Facilitate Diffusion of Ideas and Systems

7. #7 18501900195020002050 EJ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Microchip Commercial aviation Television Vacuum tube Gasoline engine Electric motor Steam engine Nuclear energy Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas Global Primary Energy

8. #8 18501900195020002050 EJ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Microchip Commercial aviation Television Vacuum tube Gasoline engine Electric motor Steam engine Nuclear energy Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas Source: Riahi et al., 2011 Global Primary Energy Counterfactual - BAU

9. #9 18501900195020002050 EJ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas Global Primary Energy lim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~30% renewables by 2030 Limited Intermittent REN Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS – “negative CO 2 ” Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Source: Riahi et al., 2011

10. #10 18501900195020002050 EJ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass 200020102020203020402050 EJ 0 50 100 150 200 250 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Global Primary Energy China

11. #11 18501900195020002050 EJ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass 200020102020203020402050 EJ 0 20 40 60 80 100 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Global Primary Energy Sub-Saharan Africa

12. #12 GEA-Efficiency Industry: 1.Retrofit of existing plants 2.Best available technology for new investments 3.Optimization of energy & material flows 4.Lifecycle product design & enhanced recycling 5.Electrification incl. switch to renewable energy Industry: 1.Retrofit of existing plants 2.Best available technology for new investments 3.Optimization of energy & material flows 4.Lifecycle product design & enhanced recycling 5.Electrification incl. switch to renewable energy Global Final Energy Demand Transport Residential/Commercial Industry Residential: 1.Rapid introduction of strict building codes 2.Accelerate retrofit rate to 3% of stock per year (x 4 improvement by 2050) 3.Improved electrical appliances Residential: 1.Rapid introduction of strict building codes 2.Accelerate retrofit rate to 3% of stock per year (x 4 improvement by 2050) 3.Improved electrical appliances Transport: 1.Technology efficiency (50%) 2.Reduced private mobility (eg urban planning) 3.Infrastructure for public transport + railway freight Transport: 1.Technology efficiency (50%) 2.Reduced private mobility (eg urban planning) 3.Infrastructure for public transport + railway freight Source: Riahi et al., 2011

13. #13 Titel des Vortrags Where do we stand? Five good news & five major challenges

14. Global Energy Investments

15. UN General Assembly resolution 65/151 The Way Forward ● ●Global Political Commitment – the huge multiple benefits as drivers ● ●Country Level Action is Key – identifying what works best in each country ● ●Private Sector is Key Partner – enabling environments for investment ● ●Facilitating Decision Making – much analytic and data work needed ● ●Supporting Country Efforts – financial and capacity development huge needs

16. 19701990201020302050 MJ/US$2005 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 GEA-Efficiency 19701990201020302050 MJ/US$2005 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 GEA-Efficiency -1.7% pa -1.0% pa -1.2% pa -2.2% pa -3.3% pa -2.1% pa Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation) Final Energy Intensities

17. 19001950200020502100 Global CO2 emissions (GtCO2) -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 IPCC Category I GEA - Efficiency Global CO2 Emissions - (ATR) NoCCS, NoNuc Peak by 2020 reductions of 35-75% by 2050 almost zero or negative in the long term Global Carbon Emissions