1. Water availability Stefan Kaden & Michael Kaltofen WASY GmbH, Institute for Water Resources Planning and Systems Research, Berlin, Germany GLOWA-Elbe GLOWA Status conference 19 May 2005 Cologne Water resources management and water availability in the Elbe river basin under conditions of global change WBalMo Elbe

2. Water availability te Project I: Integration und -coordination Integrative Methodological Approach GLOWA-Elbe (IMA) Regional actors, decision bodies Frame of Development Project II: Regionalisation of Global Change Global Change Management level Project V: Cross conflict field scenario analysis Management- options Impact- analysis Evaluation Project IV: Surface Water Quality Nutrient entry Cost-efficiency analysis Eco- hydrological Indicators Socio- economic Indicators Project III: Surface Water Availability Run off regulation Multi-criteria analysis Eco- hydrological Indicators Socio- economic Indicators Project advisory board Development of water availability under conditions of global change (climate and socio-economics)? Management strategies / policy options to solve arising problems of water availability? Socio-economic and ecological consequences of those strategies?

3. Water availability Contents 1.Goals and basic methodologies 2.Main working steps 3.Conclusions

4. Water availability Constraints Objectives Satisfaction of water demand (municipalities, agriculture, industry, navigation, etc.) Minimum discharge Flood protection Water quality and ecological objectives …. Water resources (availability and usability) Capacity of reservoirs Hydro-morphology of rivers Capacities of water transfers State of aquatic ecology …… Goals & basic methodologies Future Past Water yield Water use Uncertain and stochastic changing water yield Uncertain water demand Water management

5. Water availability Constraints Objectives Satisfaction of water demand (municipalities, agriculture, industry, navigation, etc.) Minimum discharge Flood protection Water quality and ecological objectives …. Water resources (availability and usability) Capacity of reservoirs Hydro-morphology of rivers Capacities of water transfers State of aquatic ecology …… Goals & basic methodologies Interest groups Decision makers / Institutions Stakeholder Management alternatives Reservoirs, Ranking of water supply.... Stochastic long-term simulation of water management in river basins Water management Multi-criteria, stochastic, uncertain, multiple decision maker

6. Water availability Stochastic Simulation of Meteorological and Hydrological Processes Simulation P, PET Deterministic P-Q-Model Q(t) Stochastic generated climate series Goals & basic methodologies

7. Water availability Precipitation Runoff STG 1 2003 bis 2007, R1 2003 bis 2007, R2 Goals & basic methodologies

8. Water availability Stochastic Simulation of Meteorological and Hydrological Processes Simulation P, PET Deterministic P-Q-Model Q(t) Stochastic generated climate series Balancing of water yield and water demand within socio-economic context Deterministic Simulation of Water Use Management Rules, Ranking Rules Goals & basic methodologies

9. Water availability Goals & basic methodologies WBalMo

10. Water availability simulation software WBalMo ® Stochastic Simulation of Meteorological and Hydrological Processes Simulation P, PET Deterministic P-Q-Model Q(t) Stochastic generated climate series e.g. certainty of water supply or minimum flow Balancing of water yield and water demand within socio-economic context Deterministic Simulation of Water Use Management Rules, Ranking Rules Recording and Statistical Analysis of Systems States (Events) Goals & basic methodologies

11. Water availability Probability of satisfaction of demand (stream flow/ filling duration/ water deficit...) at a defined indicator level example: Indicator: Berlin-inflow (Große Tränke/Spree: demand 8 m 3 /s) but Goals & basic methodologies

12. Water availability Indicator: Berlin-inflow (Große Tränke/Spree: minimum flow 8 m 3 /s) ly Reference B2-Basis B2-Filling Reservoir system Lohsa II/ Bärwalde Dams Bautzen/ Quitzdorf Reservoir lake "Cottbuser See" Barrage Spremberg Goals & basic methodologies

13. Water availability Socioeconomic development Climate change WBalMo Balancing water demand and water resources Water demand Water resources IMA and Water availability Goals & basic methodologies Water management, ecological, socioeconomic

14. Water availability GLOWA IWBalMo model development and application for Spree river basin (about 10.000 km 2 ) GLOWA IIWBalMo model development and application for Elbe river basin (about 150.000 km 2 ) Goals & basic methodologies WBalMo Spree: Standard planning tool of water authorities in the basin GRMSTEU: Control model for daily management

15. Water availability Goals & basic methodologies Methodological problems Dimension of problem: more than 5000 users, 500 sub-areas, 50 years, 100 realizations Combination of existing and new models Scale: Length of Elbe river about 1000 km Concept of “active modules” Balancing considering travel time Parallelization of modeling

16. Water availability Czech Republic MuldeSaale Spree-Havel Elbe River (Spreewald) Goals & basic methodologies

17. Water availability Modular structure of the WBalMo model - „active modules“ - Water demand x Reservoir release Goals & basic methodologies

18. Water availability Water demand x Module y ? Goals & basic methodologies

19. Water availability Water demand x Active module y Bidirectional interface Server module Goals & basic methodologies

20. Water availability Contents 1.Goals and basic methodologies 2.Main working steps 3.Conclusions

21. Water availability Berounka Havel Bode Weiße Elster Lower Elbe Saale Spree Schw. Elster Main Elbe Mulde Upper and Middle Labe Lower Vltava Ohře and Lower Labe Upper Vltava Main working steps 1 Structuring of the WBalMo system for the river basin

22. Water availability 2 Active modules Main working steps Mulde

23. Water availability Basic data Legal water supply permits / Water requirement as specified by water resources management planning Losses / releases of wetland areas selection of relevant areas (larger 1000 ha) digital elevation model soils and land use Main working steps

24. Water availability Basic data Legal water supply permits / Water requirement as specified by water resources management planning Losses/releases of wetland areas Other types of losses / demands: Water transfers, evaporation from large water surfaces, areas of groundwater draw- down, minimum environmental flow, seepage, flow rate to sustain water quality, flow rate to support users Main working steps

25. Water availability Basic data Legal water supply permits / Water requirement as specified by water resources management planning Other types of losses/demands: Water transfers, evaporation from large standing waters, areas of groundwater draw- down, minimum environmental flow, seepage, flow rate to sustain water quality, flow rate to support users Reservoirs, dams, managed lakes / remaining pits from lignite mining maximum capacity monthly size of active storage capacity monthly division of storage capacity with respective beneficiaries (users) ranking order for water supply monthly storage capacity for replenishment, ranking order for replenishment specifications regarding combined reservoir operation Losses/releases of wetland areas Main working steps

26. Water availability 3 Specific modules Main working steps  Socioeconomic evaluation functions  Consideration of water quality aspects in water allocation  Consideration of wetlands

27. Water availability Selected wetlands in the Elbe lowland for integration In WBalMo Main working steps

28. Water availability Modell WBalMo Spreewald IModell WBalMo Spreewald II Example:WBalMo Spreewald Main working steps Generalization

29. Water availability 4 Implementation and testing the overall model Main working steps 5 Conflict analysis, development and analysis of management alternatives

30. Water availability main working steps water resourceswater use water availability Considerations of socio-economic development and climate change Implementation of the long term water management model according to status quo water management Bottom up actors

31. Water availability main working steps water resourceswater use water availability Implementation of the long term water management model according to different frameworks of development water management Scenario of socio-economic development and climate change Top down scientists

32. Water availability water management water availability main working steps water resourceswater use water availability Developing water management strategies water management Scenario of socio-economic development and climate change

33. Water availability Basic data Legal water supply permits / Water requirement as specified by water resources management planning Other types of losses/demands: Water transfers, evaporation from large standing waters, areas of groundwater draw- down, minimum environmental flow, seepage, flow rate to sustain water quality, flow rate to support users Reservoirs, dams, managed lakes Losses/releases of wetland areas main working steps

34. Water availability Basic data Legal water supply permits / Water requirement as specified by water resources management planning Other types of losses/demands: Water transfers, evaporation from large standing waters, areas of groundwater draw- down, minimum environmental flow, seepage, flow rate to sustain water quality, flow rate to support users Reservoirs, dams, managed lakes Losses/releases of wetland areas Scenario of socio-economic development main working steps

35. Water availability water uses Legal water supply permits / Water requirement as specified by water resources management planning Other types of losses/demands: Water transfers, evaporation from large standing waters, areas of groundwater draw- down, minimum environmental flow, seepage, flow rate to sustain water quality, flow rate to support users Reservoirs, dams, managed lakes Losses/releases of wetland areas Scenario of socio-economic development water resources Hydrological structure of Elbe river basin Scenario of climate change main working steps Modeled with SWIM (Sub-project II)

36. Water availability 6 Evaluation of management alternatives, multicriteria analysis Main working steps see Presentation Project V

37. Water availability Contents 1.Goals and basic methodologies 2.Main working steps 3.Conclusions

38. Water availability Conclusions Project III – essential component of GLOWA II Project I: Integration und -coordination Integrative Methodological Approach GLOWA-Elbe (IMA) Regional actors, decision bodies Frame of Development Project II: Regionalisation of Global Change Global Change Management level Project V: Cross conflict field scenario analysis Management- options Impact- analysis Evaluation Project IV: Surface Water Quality Nutrient entry Cost-efficiency analysis Eco- hydrological Indicators Socio- economic Indicators Project III: Surface Water Availability Run off regulation Multi-criteria analysis Eco- hydrological Indicators Socio- economic Indicators Project advisory board Water quantity (availability) Requirements of water quality Requirements of flood mangagement

39. Water availability Stochastic long-term water management modeling (WBalMo) is the adequate basis to analyze the impact of global change on water availability and for the development of sustainable management strategies. The model structure enables the inclusion of socioeconomic evaluation (  Project V!). The modular concept guaranties high acceptance by water authorities (important for cooperation in model development). Methods and tools developed are helpful for implementing the EU Water Framework Directive.

40. Water availability Contributors: WASY Institute for Water Resources Planning and Systems Research Ltd. Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape and Land Use Research Federal Institut of Hydrology Partners for socio-economic evaluation: UFZ Environmental Reserch Centre Technical University Berlin WBalMo Elbe

41. Water availability WWW.GLOWA-Elbe.de Thank You For Your Attention!

42. Water availability Laufzeit 1 Gleichzeitigkeit aller Prozesse t0 Exemplarisch durchflußaufhöhende Prozesse Effekte treten sofort und vollständig bis zum Wirkungsknoten des nächsten Prozesses auf In allen Profilen gilt dieselbe Zeit

43. Water availability Laufzeit 2 Laufzeitproblem im Bilanzmodell t0 dt2 > 0dt1 > 0 ? ? In allen Profilen gilt dieselbe Zeit Fließzeit Das Ergebnis der historischen Prozesse ist unbekannt

44. Water availability Laufzeit 3 Lösung des Laufzeitproblems t2=f(dt1+dt2)t0t1=f(dt1) dt2’ = 0dt1’ = 0 Berücksichtigung der historischen Prozesse zu den Zeitpunkten t2, t1, … Transformationen der Fließzeiten Effekte treten (im Modell) sofort und vollständig bis zum Wirkungsknoten des nächsten Prozesses auf