1. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy PREFER WP3.1 - Information Support to Preparedness/Prevention Phase Product: “Daily Fire Hazard Map” PREFER WP3.1 - Information Support to Preparedness/Prevention Phase Product: “Daily Fire Hazard Map”

2. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Project WP 3.1, Task 3.1.6 status Purpose To develop maps able to show the daily fire hazard. This product is based on the observation that there is a tight relationship between the fire and the characteristics of the fuel of the topography and the meteorological conditions Description (Content Specification) Daily Fire Hazard Map will provide a medium spatial resolution fire danger index, that is a dimensionless number indicating the proneness of a vegetated area to burn or support a fire. Input  EO-data: MODIS PREFER Product Seasonal Fuel Map  Other data: CORINE, Meteorological data

3. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy 1To develop a daily Fire Hazard Index with the objective of showing the total hazard level for the area of interest and the zones of major concern within such area; 2To develop maps able to show the fire hazard considering the tight relationship between fire and: fuel characteristics (vegetation type, density, humidity content); topography (slope, altitude, solar aspect angle); meteorological conditions (rainfall, wind direction and speed, air humidity, surface and air temperature). Daily Fire Hazard Index: objectives

4. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy 1- Statistical Methods or Structural (long-term fire risk index) defining forecast models based on the utilization of slowly changing parameters like topography or other variables that can be considered constant along the year and statistical information on the frequency of the phenomenon. Methods to estimate fire hazard 2- Dynamical Methods (short-term fire risk index) based on: Data measured continuously (i.e. daily) Characteristics of spatial data (orography and vegetation) Forecast models of the meteorological parameters Daily Fire Hazard Index: background

5. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy The forecast was made ​​ on the basis of the calculation of 7 different risk indices (6 of which represent the evolution of indices developed for national applications and are substantially meteorological indices), using meteorological data interpolated on a grid of 50 km (10 km from 2012) and weather forecasts of Meteo France and satellite data. The JRC has developed a new index, starting from the Fire Potential Index (FPI) introduced in 1998 in the USA (Burgan et al., 1998) which represents an evolution (Advanced FPI) adapted to the European reality. The following indices have been tested: Portuguese Index, ICON method, Risk Numeric Drouet-Sol, Italian Risk Index, Canadian Index (Canadian Fire Weather Index), BEHAVE model, Fire Potential Index EFFIS (European Forest Fires Information System ) Daily Fire Hazard Index: background

6. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy The MFPI, which is a risk index based on the Fire Potential Index (FPI, Burgan) combines different types of static (topography, etc.) and dynamic (meteo data and remote sensing data) variables. 1/3 9/10 11/12 19/20 16/1 6 6/12 5/8 4/4 10/9 18/11 13/ 6 8/5 17/1920/18 15/15 7/7 14/14 11/13 3/1 2/2 Within the SIGRI project this parameter is computed automatically every 3 hours for the following 3 days. EFFIS (European Forest Fires Information System ) The result: Dynamic FWI Daily Fire Hazard Index: state-of-the-art SIGRI (Integrated System for Forest Fire Management) www.sigri.it

7. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy The DFHI, is based on the experience of the SIGRI MFPI. This product is generated every day: 1.calculate NDVI and EWT: starting from MODIS daily images daily (Terra or Aqua); 2.Compute the ET0 by using the information on DEM, T, H; 3.Utilize land use map and fuel type maps; 4.Applying the definition of the FPI. Evapotranspiration To take into account the effect of solar illumination in determining the existing humidity in the died vegetation To improve the performance Vegetation water content Product: Daily Fire Hazard Index Mediterranean maquis Deciduous woodland

8. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Generation scheme of Daily Fire Hazard Map Server Algorithm computation of DFHI ELABORATION NDVI, EWT DEM, fuel map Meteo data INPUT DFHI MAP Geotiff Generation In PREFER project we are developing a new Daily Fire Hazard Index (DFHI) appropriate for the Mediterranean areas. Product: Daily Fire Hazard Index - methodology DEM based on SRTM

9. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy DFHI Temp/humidEMCFM TNF Corine Fuel type Fuel Min hum Min Max Min Max 2008 2012 Evapotranspiration Daily Fire Hazard index Daily NDVI RG Ten hour lag fuel moistureFraction of ten hour lag fuel moisture EWT Green veg. fraction Dead veg. fraction Green veg. fraction linked to fuel type Dead veg. fraction Green veg. fraction JRC Product: Daily Fire Hazard Index - methodology FPI = (1 - Lf) * (1 - TNf)*100 Lf = fraction of live vegetation TNf = dead small fuel moisture content= f(Ta,Hu)

10. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy In literature the estimation of EWT is discussed in depth by Ceccato, which relates EWT with GVMI for SPOT data. The constants (a, b, c, d) are related to the sensor (MODIS) and the type of vegetation that is observed. More than a million of reflectance spectra have been simulated by varying simultaneously the biological parameters of the leaf, the structure of the canopy and atmospheric conditions for selecting the MODIS bands and define the relationship between GVMI and EWT. Product: Daily Fire Hazard Index - methodology GMVI EWTcanopy In the Sardinia region the maximum value of EWT occurs, for most of the territory, during the winter time. Equivalent Water Tickness

11. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Product: Daily Fire Hazard Index - methodology ET0 is estimated by using the Penman-Monteith formula modified according to FAO: ET o = evapo-transpiration [mm day -1 ], R n = net radiation at surface [MJ m -2 day -1 ], f(aspect, slope) G = soil heat flux [MJ m -2 day -1 ], T = daily mean value of the air temperature at 2 m [°C], u 2 = wind speed at 2 m [m s -1 ], e s = saturated vapor pressure [kPa], e a = mean vapor pressure [kPa],  = de/dT [kPa °C -1 ],  = psychrometric constant [kPa °C -1 ]. Evapotranspiration COSMO-LAMI, spatial resolution 6 km, air temperature at 2m.

12. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Example of DFHI computed every 3 hours on Sardinia and Corsica, day 28 Aug. 2013 Hour: 00Hour: 06Hour: 12Hour: 18 Hour: 00 Hour: 12 Product: Daily Fire Hazard Index

13. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Thank you Product: Daily Fire Hazard Index