1. Global Warming Facts and Myths Scott A. Mathews, Ph.D. The Catholic University of America

3. The Information Problem Who should you believe? Is the internet a reliable source of information? Who has an “agenda” or vested interest? Does the “man in the street” understand the science. Where can you find reliable facts on the subject? OPINION

4. Why should you believe me? I am a “real” scientist: –B.S. Physics –M.S. Engineering –Ph.D. Engineering –20 years of R&D –More 40 scientific publications Every significant statement in this presentation is labeled as either “FACT” or “OPINION” All FACTS site a specific source. All sources are “hyperlinked” so you can see the original document with single “mouse- click” I receive no funding from: –Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change –Green Peace –The Oil-Gas-Coal Industry –Al Gore, George Bush, Dick Chaney –Hippies –The Alternative Energy Industry FACT

5. How do you know what to believe? Unfortunately, you can’t believe any single, individual scientist. The world is full of “quacks”, and scientist are not immune. The scientific method is based publication, peer review, and independent confirmation. Trust professional scientific societies. Trust reputable, peer reviewed, scientific journals. OPINION

6. Some Background and Some Definitions Global WarmingGlobal Warming: An increase in the average measured temperature of the Earth’s near surface air and oceans. Anthropogenic Global WarmingAnthropogenic Global Warming: Global warming specifically attributable to human activity. CO 2 Related Global WarmingCO 2 Related Global Warming: Anthropogenic global warming specifically attributable to increased levels of CO 2 in the atmosphere. Greenhouse EffectGreenhouse Effect: A commonly observed principle of physics that results in the build-up of thermal energy in closed systems with specific optical properties. MY DEFINITIONS

7. So…What are the facts?

8. Global Warming Global Warming: Is the Earth Getting Warmer? http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/climate-change/dn11639 FACT

9. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/HadCRUT3 _accepted.pdf

10. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/ FACT

11. Global warming my @#$! It’s still cold!

12. Effects of “Global Warming” “Global Warming” does not mean that you and I will notice an increase in temperatures. Most experts believe that an increase in average global temperatures will lead to more “anomalous” weather events; more extreme weather. Some models predict temperate regions undergoing a “mini-ice age”. Many experts have stopped using the term “Global Warming” and now use the term “Climate Change”.

13. http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.go v/oa/climate/globalwar ming.html#q9 FACT

14. Arctic Sea Ice http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/ FACT

15. Ice Free Arctic? environmental change “The committee was also asked to analyze any changes in roles and missions of polar icebreakers in the support of all national priorities, including consideration of ongoing and predicted environmental change, and to assess whether changes are needed to the existing laws governing U.S. Coast Guard polar icebreaking operations to address potential new missions and new operating regimes.” http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=11753&page=5 sea-ice retreat “Economic activity is predicted to increase and move northward as a result of sea-ice retreat.” FACT

16. Boulder Glacier Glacier National Park, MT Jerry DeSanto photo USGS Repeat Photography Project http://nrmsc.usgs.gov/repeatphoto/ 1988 T. J. Hileman photo Courtesy of GNP archives 1932 26/150 FACT

17. http://www.whrc.org/resources/online_publications/warming_earth/scientific_evidence.htm FACT

18. Scientific Consensus Journals Journals Examined 928 Peer reviewed journal papers published between 1993 and 2003 Six Categories explicit endorsement mitigation evaluation of impact methods paleoclimate analysis explicit rejection First 2 categories “imply” anthropogenic global climate change. 3 implies climate change, but not necessarily anthropogenic 4 & 5 do not endorse 75% of papers fall into the first 3 25% of papers fall into 4 & 5 ZERO ZERO papers fall into category 6! www.sciencemag.org FACT

19. Statements by Concurring Organizations Statements by Concurring Organizations http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 InterAcademy Council Joint science academies’ statement 2007, 2005, 2001 International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences European Academy of Sciences and Arts Network of African Science Academies National Research Council (US) European Science Foundation American Association for the Advancement of Science Federation of American Scientists World Meteorological Organization American Meteorological Society Royal Meteorological Society (UK) Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences International Union for Quaternary Research American Quaternary Association Stratigraphy Commission of the Geological Society of London FACT

20. American Society for Microbiology American Public Health Association American Statistical Association Engineers Australia (The Institution of Engineers Australia) Federal Climate Change Science Program (US) Canadian Federation of Earth Sciences Geological Society of America American Geophysical Union American Astronomical Society American Institute of Physics American Physical Society American Chemical Society International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics International Union of Geological Sciences European Geosciences Union Statements by Concurring Organizations Statements by Concurring Organizations http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus FACT

21. American Association of State Climatologists Statements by Noncommittal Organizations Statements by Noncommittal Organizations http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus FACT

22. American Association of Petroleum Geologists (2006) Statements by Dissenting Organizations Statements by Dissenting Organizations http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus OLD FACT

23. American Association of State Climatologists American Association of Petroleum Geologists (2007)* Statements by Noncommittal Organizations Statements by Noncommittal Organizations http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus FACT

24. ?? Statements by Dissenting Organizations Statements by Dissenting Organizations http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus

25. Statements by Dissenting Organizations Statements by Dissenting Organizations http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consensus http://dpa.aapg.org/gac/statements/climatechange.pdf “With the July 2007 release of the revised statement by the American Association of Petroleum Geologists, no remaining scientific body of national or international standing is known to reject the basic findings of human influence on recent climate.” FACT

26. My Interpretation of the Facts The Earth is getting warmer. Climate change has already started. Few reputable scientists (if any) reject this conclusion. It is very highly likely that recent changes in climate are due to human activity. There is broad consensus among scientist about anthropogenic climate change. vast majorityThe vast majority of scientist believe that CO 2 levels are a major factor affecting climate. There is some “real” scientific debate as to the magnitude of the effect of CO 2. There is some “real” scientific debate over the “timetable”. OPINION

27. Some Final Thoughts We are not talking about losing some polar bears and some beach-front property in Florida. We are talking about changing the very nature of the planet and all the life it supports. We don’t know, with any certainty, how long it will take to reach the “tipping point”, the point of no return. We do know that the process has begun. What are the risks if we try to address this problem? What are the risks if we do nothing? OPINION