1. Linking Data Collection on International Migration in Household Surveys in CIS States Richard E. Bilsborrow University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (consultant to World Bank) Presented via Video/Telephone from World Bank, Washington, DC, December 19, 2011

2. Outline of brief presentation 1. The rarity of international migration compared to population sizes of origin (sending) and destination (receiving) countries 2. Recent household surveys in the region: limited, incomplete and unreliable data on international migration and remittances 3. Therefore, the desirability of specialized surveys on international migration: quick summary of main methods of sample and questionnaire design. 4. The concept of a “migration system”, and its relevance to the CIS states region. 5. The desirability of conducting linked surveys in a major country of origin and a major country of destination: Example of NIDI, and relevance to conducting specialized surveys on international migration in Russia and a CIS state of origin of migrants to Russia.

3. Importance of international migration in the world UN (2009) estimated 214 million persons live in a country other than that of their birth in 2010, 3.1% of the world population. Above is data on the stock of foreign born population migrants accumulated in a country over their lifetime: data from the UN Population Division show how small the numbers are in any recent time period compared to the population sizes of countries. Thus only 3 countries in the world (with over 1 million population) had a net annual immigration rate estimated as high as 1% during 2005-2010, and only two a net emigration rate over 1% (Zimbabwe and Georgia).

4. Need to consider: What is the main purpose of the data collection on migrants? a. Identify/count international migrants-immigrants, emigrants? Especially over some fixed recent time period (of 1, 2, 5, …10 years)? b. Characterize migrants: by age, sex, education, occupation, work experience, language ability….? c. Collect data on remittances sent and/or received, and impacts? d. Study determinants and/or consequences of international migration--on origin and destination households, communities, countries? e. Study frequency of return migration and its impacts.

5. Existing sources of data on international migration in the CIS States Population censuses, border/admission statistics, registers, and other administrative sources can at best provide data on a, and very limited, incomplete data on b and c. Existing household surveys with some other primary purpose can provide more data on b and c, but this is usually still quite limited. Thus a World Bank review* of recent (2000-9) Household Budget, Labor Force, LSMS, and other surveys in 28 countries of E. Europe and the CIS states found little data being collected on IM or remittances. *R. Bilsborrow & M. Lomaia, International Migration and Remittances in Developing Countries: Using Household Surveys to Improve Data Collection in the CIS States and Eastern Europe. Washington D.C.: The World Bank (available in English and Russian).

6. Other Conclusions of World Bank report Short modules of questions were developed to add to such surveys to increase data on immigrants, emigrants, and remittances, but the existing small sample sizes and questionnaire length/structure are serious impediments to the value of doing this in most cases. In addition, to study the determinants and consequences of migration, or remittances, or return migration well, we cannot just add a few questions to existing surveys. For this, we need specialized surveys on international migration (or large multipurpose surveys collecting data on both individuals and households with migrants and non-migrants. Since migrants are usually “rare elements”, specialized methods of sampling are desirable, as are questions to address the situation of the individual migrants and non-migrants and their households before and after migration, involving collection of retrospective data.

7. Conclusions regarding the state of knowledge on international migration in region Knowledge base is weak, due to lack of good data and studies. Better data on the number of migrants, basic characteristics, and remittances can be obtained by adapting existing surveys, but only if sample size is sufficient. Otherwise, need to increase sample size or change sample design. If a country wants to go beyond the basic data, to study the determinants and/or consequences of international migration, remittances, or return migration, a specialized migration survey will usually be required. This involves (1) a sample design to find enough migrants, and (2) special questionnaires that collect the needed detailed data

8. Designing a specialized survey on international migration The first step is to determine the budget and therefore the size and geographic coverage of the survey (ideally, it is national, but especially pilot surveys may cover only key areas of migration, called the domain of the survey). The second step is to recognize that recent international migrants are “rare elements” in populations and not randomly distributed, which leads to two methods desirable for selecting the sample (see Bilsborrow et al 1997 book): 1. Stratification with oversampling to select Primary Sampling Units (PSUs) 2. Use of two-phase sampling in last stage

9. 1. Stratification and disproportionate sampling In country of, e.g., emigration, sample (select) both households with emigrants and those without emigrants. From the latest census or other source (such as expert opinion), form strata based on the expected prevalence of international migrants. Oversample areas or Primary Sampling Units (PSUs) from strata with high expected proportions of households with emigrants (at each sampling stage—e.g., provinces, then districts, then census sectors). Even highly disproportionate sampling fractions can be used, which concentrates fieldwork where the migrants are, since this can be adjusted for in the analysis later using weights.

10. 2. Use two-phase sampling Once the last stage or Ultimate Area Units (UAUs) have been selected, in each sample UAU, in phase 1, conduct a listing or screening operation in 100-200 households. This lists all occupied households in the UAU to identify those with and without emigrants (and other migrants of interest). Create separate lists of households with one or more former members who emigrated and did not return in the previous (e.g.) 5 or 10 years, and those households without such a person (and those with return migrants also, if of interest). Sample from each list separately, taking a higher proportion from the list of households with migrants than from the list without migrants. In phase 2, conduct interviews of sample households from both (or all three) lists.

11. The CIS Countries as a Migration System What is a “migration system”? A set of countries linked by international migration flows: e.g., the majority of emigrants from country of Origin O moves to country of Destination (D). This may be due to historical ties (being part of same country, colonial ties, same/similar language, common border, or large commercial (international) trade between countries. Based on this definition, Russia as a country of destination D and a number of the CIS states as countries of origin of migrants to Russia may be said to constitute migration systems. It is of particular value to investigate migration flows between such countries since they are more numerous and have more important implications for both countries of O and D than other flows of international migrants.

12. Example: NIDI - Eurostat Push-Pulls International Migration Survey Project, 1997-1998 This project involved five countries of origin of migrants: Turkey, Egypt, Morocco, Senegal and Ghana; and two countries of destination: Italy and Spain. It used common definitions of migrants: in origin countries, a migrant household is one with a former member who left to live abroad during the previous 10 years (in a country of destination, a household having someone arriving in the previous 10 years). Used common methodology: sample designs appropriate for rare elements, with stratification, etc.; similar questionnaires Sample sizes ranged from 1100-2000 households (including migrants or not) in countries of emigration; 700-800 individual migrants in destination countries.

13. More on NIDI surveys In countries without census data on international migrants, expert opinion was used to stratify areas according to expected prevalence of international migrants (seemed to work ok). Multi-topic questionnaires sought much data on demographic characteristics, work activity before and after migration (but little on income or expenditures), remittances, language ability, assimilation and cultural adjustment, perceived happiness, migration intentions, etc. Linking origin and destination country surveys is ideal for collecting data to study the determinants or consequences of international migration--for the migrants, their households, or the communities or countries of origin or destination. This is due to the concept of appropriate comparison groups. See Bilsborrow et al., International Migration Statistics, Guidelines for Improving Data Collection Systems (Geneva: ILO, 1997)

14. Relevance for the CIS Region Russia and any of various other CIS states constitute an international migration system. Similar procedures could be used as in the NIDI project to collect data to investigate international migration. The major advantage of having data from both origin (O) and destination (D) country is that it provides data for the appropriate comparison groups to study the determinants and consequences of international migration. To study the determinants, the ideal approach is to compare data for non-migrant individuals and households in country O with data for individuals and households who had moved from O to D and are found in country D (e.g., Russia), with the data reference being their situation at the time of migration. The appropriate comparison groups for studying the consequences are the same two groups of non-migrants and migrants in O and D, but compared at the time of the survey.

15. And in conclusion….. Thus surveys are needed in both the country of origin and the country of destination to properly investigate statistically either the determinants or consequences of international migration. This can also be shown to be the case for a full evaluation of the consequences of remittances and return migration. Thank you for your attention, good luck, and Happy Holidays!