1. Thinking Mathematically
Probability with the Fundamental Counting Principle, Permutations, and Combinations

2. Example Probability and Permutations
Five groups in a tour, Offspring, Pink Floyd, Sublime, the Rolling Stones, and the Beatles, agree to determine the order of performance based on a random selection. Each band’s name is written on one of five cards. The cards are placed in a hat and then five cards are drawn out, one at a time. The order in which the cards are drawn determines the order in which the bands perform. What is the probability of the Rolling Stones performing fourth and the Beatles last?

3. Solution
We begin by applying the definition of probability to this situation.
P(Rolling Stones fourth, Beatles last) =
(permutations with Rolling Stones fourth, Beatles last) (total number of possible permutations)
We can use the Fundamental Counting Principle to find the total number of possible permutations.
5  4  3  2  1 = 120

4. Solution cont.
We can also use the Fundamental Counting Principle to find the number of permutations with the Rolling Stones performing fourth and the Beatles performing last. You can choose any one of the three groups as the opening act. This leaves two choices for the second group to perform, and only one choice for the third group to perform. Then we have one choice for fourth and last.
3  2  1  1  1 = 6
There are six lineups with Rolling Stones fourth and Beatles last.

5. Solution cont. Now we can return to our probability fraction.
P(Rolling Stones fourth, Beatles last) =
(permutations with Rolling Stones fourth, Beatles last) (total number of possible permutations)
= 6/120 = 1/20
The probability of the Rolling Stones performing fourth and the Beatles last is 1/20.

6. Example Probability and Combinations: Winning the Lottery
Florida’s lottery game, LOTTO, is set up so that each player chooses six numbers from 1 to 53. If the six numbers chosen match the six numbers drawn randomly twice weekly, the player wins (or shares) the top cash prize. With one LOTTO ticket, what is the probability of winning this prize?

7. Solution
Because the order of the six numbers does not matter, this is a situation involving combinations. We begin with the formula for probability.
P(winning) = number of ways of winning total number of possible combinations
We can use the combinations formula to find the total number of combinations.

8. Solution cont.
There are nearly 23 million number combinations possible in LOTTO, and only one is a winning combination.
P(winning) = number of ways of winning total number of possible combinations
= 1/22,957,480

9. Example Probability and Combinations
A club consists of five men and seven women. Three members are selected at random to attend a conference. Find the probability that the selected group consists of:
three men.
one man and two women.

10. Solution We begin with the probability of selecting three men.
P( 3 men)=number of ways of selecting 3 men
total number of possible combinations
12C3 = 12!/((12-3)!3!) = 220
5C3 = 5!/((5-3)!(3!)) = 10
P(3 men) = 10/220 = 1/22

11. Solution part b
We set up the fraction for the probability that the selected group consists of one man and two women. P(1 man and 2 women) = number of ways of selecting 1 man and 2 women
total number of possible combinations
We know the denominator is 12C3 = 220.
Next we move to the numerator of the probability fraction.

12. Solution part b cont.
The number of ways of selecting r = 1 man from n = 5 men is
5C1 = 5!/(((5-1)!1!) = 5
The number of ways of selecting r = 2 women from n=7 women is
7C2 = 7!/((7-2)!2!) = 21

13. Solution part b cont. 5C1  7C2 = 5  21 = 105 = 105/220 = 21/44
By the Fundamental Counting Principle, the number of ways of selecting 1 man and 2 women is
5C1  7C2 = 5  21 = 105
Now we can fill in the numbers in our probability fraction. P(1 man and 2 women) =
number of ways of selecting 1 man and 2 women
total number of possible combinations
= 105/220 = 21/44

14. Thinking Mathematically
Probability with the Fundamental Counting Principle, Permutations, and Combinations