1. OECD Bilateral Trade Database - by Industry and by End-use (BTDIxE) S. Zhu, N. Yamano and A. Cimper Directorate for Science Technology and Industry WPTGS – 8 th November 2011 (Colin Webb)

2. Why BTDIxE ? To better understand structural changes in international trade Contribute to analyses of global production networks, regional integration etc. via linking of national Input-Output tables e.g. work of CIIE Input into OECD Trade in Value Added project General tool for empirical analyses to address policy issues in areas of Trade, Industry, infrastructure, environment, innovation … Replaces existing OECD Bilateral Trade by industry Database (BTD)

3. Coverage Exports and imports of goods, 1988-2010 Countries (reporters and partners) –34 OECD countries –30 non-Members to cover (or complete) BRIICS / EU27 / G20 / ASEAN9 / CEFTA –Two additional partners = Rest of World and Unspecified Industries –About 40 activities mainly covering agriculture, mining and manufacturing: generally 2-digit ISIC Rev.3 + 4 technology intensity groups + 8 categories of waste, scrap, recycled goods

4. Broad Economic Categories (BEC) codes in parentheses End-use categories

5. BTDIxE end-use categories 3 SNA end-use categories –Intermediate inputs –Household consumption –Capital goods 5 mixed end-uses –packed medicaments –personal computers –passenger cars –phones (fixed and mobile) –valuables + other n.e.c (fuels and lubricants currently allocated to intermediate goods)

6. Sources and Methods Source = OECD ITCS / UN Comtrade annual merchandise trade statistics (HS 6 digit level = approx. 5000 products) Standard conversion keys from HS to ISIC and HS to End-use category (EUC) developed for each version of HS (1988, 1996, 2002, 2007) and applied to data according to reported HS. Thus, 8 conversion keys Specific adjustments for Hong Kong re-exports Treatment of confidential trade at 2-digit HS level Other adjustments (country specific)

7. Generation of conversion keys used for BTDIxE via existing UNSD correspondence tables BEC (part): Certain HS products have been allocated to end-uses different to those implied by UNSD HS  BEC  end-use conversions

8. Confidential trade Some confidential trade at the 2-digit HS chapter level can be allocated to ISIC and/or end-use Generally apparent as the difference between 2-digit HS data and sum of 6-digit components In the past, such confidential trade, and other “special transactions”, reported (in OECD ITCS) with codes nnCF00 or nnEUxx – for 2-digit chapter nn Used less frequently in recent years and not present in the ‘official’ UNSD HS-HS, HS-ISIC, HS-BEC correspondences (only regular HS 6-digit codes used) Therefore, in BTDIxE, differences between 2-digit and sum(6-digit) data are calculated (code nnADJS) before conversion keys applied

9. From products to industries and end-uses – examples

10. Hong Kong re-exports Adjustments for Hong Kong re-exports to get better estimates of bilateral flows to and from China Use re-exports by origin and destination from Hong Kong Customs and Statistics Department Allows for China  Hong Kong  China case

12. Other adjustments Done Extending estimates for some reporters e.g. –Belgium, 1988-92 : using Belgium-Luxembourg figures –South Africa, 1992-99 : South Africa Customs Union (SACU) –Chinese Taipei, from 2007: “Asia not elsewhere specified” Desired Re-export adjustments for other major hubs such as Netherlands and Singapore Country specific adjustments e.g. for UK to deal with distortions in ICT trade (mid 2000s) due to EU VAT fraud Dealing with second-hand goods not identified in HS either for re- use e.g. transport equipment, or recycling e.g. discarded PCs

13. Next steps Finish comparisons between BTDIxE and similar results from WIOD project understand origins of any differences Finalise BTDIxE documentation and publish as OECD STI Working Paper(s) Zhu, Yamano and Cimper, 2011 (forthcoming) Release data on OECD.STAT replacing existing BTD Use for inter-country I-O analyses (e.g. TiVA) Identify areas for improvement Dealing with ISIC Rev. 4

14. World trade by end-use, 1990-2010 14 Source: OECD BTDIxE, 2011 (total of imports)

15. World trade by category and by originating region 1995 Source: OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard, 2011

16. World trade by category and by originating region 2009 Source: www.oecd.org/sti/scoreboard