1. Nevada Price Outlook Alfalfa and Grass Hay Dealing With Drought Michael Helmar mhelmar@cabnr.unr.edu University of Nevada, Reno University Center for Economic Development

2. Impacting the Price Outlook Major factors in the outlook for 2014 –Drought abates Water storage Range and pasture conditions –Hay acreage –Fallon WMP plant and dairy herd expansion –Fire season –California

3. Improved Supplies Ease Crop Prices Sources: USDA, FAPRI

4. Weather, WMP Plant Influence Hay Outlook Nevada forage prices Sources: USDA, UCED

5. Irrigation Keeps Yields Up Source: USDA Nevada hay yield, tons/acre

6. Drought Reduces Irrigated Acres, Number of Cuttings Source: USDA Nevada hay acreage, ths

7. California Losing Alfalfa Acres Source: USDA California hay acreage, ths

8. Late Year Moisture Improves Range Nevada range condition, 0=Very Poor, 25=Poor, 50=Fair, 75=Good, 100=Excellent Sources: USDA, UCED

9. Profitability Depends on Water in 2014 Nevada alfalfa, $/harvested acre Sources: USDA, UCED

10. Cattle Prices Boosted by Low Inventories Sources: USDA, FAPRI-MU, UCED Cattle prices, $/cwt

11. Strong Prices Will Support Profitability Basin & Range cow-calf, $/bred cow Sources: USDA, UCED

12. Milk Prices Will Fall as Feed Prices Ease Source: USDA, FAPRI All-milk price, $/cwt

13. Profitability Expected to Return in 2014 Nevada dairy, $/cwt of milk sold Sources: USDA, UCED

14. Wrap-Up Multi-year drought makes water shortage more acute this year Range conditions might not be adequate Fires could push more ranchers off land Dairy demand will boost hay needs California a major market for Nevada hay

15. Contact Information This presentation can be accessed on the University Center for Economic Development website at: http://www.unr.edu/business/research-and-outreach/uced/food-and-agricultural- policy-research-institute-(fapri) For more information or questions regarding this outlook please contact Mike Helmar at: Mhelmar@cabnr.unr.edu Mhelmar@cabnr.unr.edu