1. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) on Food and Agriculture OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGY ON CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENTS CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENTS Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome, Italy March 2004

2. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy Introduction At the request of national governments, the FAO/GIEWS usually jointly with WFP, conducts Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions (CFSAMs) for countries facing widespread and serious food emergencies. Typically 20-25 countries are annually covered by these missions. Most are in Africa but recent examples also include the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Afghanistan and Iraq. The FAO methodology followed for these assessments is briefly outlined in this presentation. Further details are available from: GIEWS, FAO, Rome, Italy. E-mail: GIEWS1@fao.org; www.fao.org/giews; telephone no. (+39) 06 570 53099.GIEWS1@fao.org www.fao.org/giews The WFP part of these assessments dealing with the vulnerability analysis is available from WFP – Emergency Needs Assessment Guidelines, 1999; Emergency Field Operations Pocketbook, 2002, e-mail: emergency.preparedness@wfp.org; and the FAO Guidelines.emergency.preparedness@wfp.org

3. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy Purpose & Objectives of CFSAMs The primary purpose of CFSAMs is to provide accurate, timely and credible information on imminent food security problems in a country or a region so that appropriate actions can be taken by the governments, the international community and others to minimize the impact of man- made or natural disasters on the affected populations.

4. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy THREE MAIN COMPONENTS OF FAO/WFP CFSAMs Crop Production and Food Supply Assessment (FAO) Vulnerability and Food Needs Assessment (WFP/FAO) Macroeconomic Context Affecting Food Supply, Demand (FAO)

5. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy THE FINAL JOINT REPORT Integrated Picture of Food Balance, Gap and Food Assistance Needs

6. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy Table of Content of a Typical CFSAM Report (Adapted from ETHIOPIA 2004 Report) Mission Highlights 1.OVERVIEW 2.SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT 2.1Macroeconomic situation 2.2Population 2.3Agricultural sector 3.FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2003 3.1General 3.2Rainfall 2003 3.3Area planted 3.4Factors affecting yields 3.5Other crops 3.6Livestock 3.7Cereal and pulse production forecast 3.8Secondary season (Belg) 2002, 2003 and 2004 4.CROP PRODUCTION SITUATION BY REGION 5.FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION 5.1Agricultural markets and prices 5.2Grain supply/demand balance 6.EMERGENCY FOOD AID REQUIREMENTS 6.1 Review of Emergency Food Aid in 2003 6.2 Household Food Security Outlook in 2004 6.3 Nutrition 6.4Relief Food Aid Requirements in 2004 6.5Food Basket Considerations 6.6Local Purchases 6.6Emergency Food Security Reserve 6.8Implementation Whenever it is relevant, public health issues such as the HIV/AIDS affecting food security and agriculture are also included.

7. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy Economic Analysis

8. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy Macroeconomic Profile of the Country National Socio-Economic Parameters Socio-Economic Conditions of the most affected Agriculture Sector in the National Economy

9. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy Economic Parameters - Domestic Economic Growth/Decline – GNP/GDP, Purchasing Power Parity, per capita levels Fiscal Position – Deficit, govt. spending, Inflation – food price inflation, effect on purchasing power Unemployment – formal/informal sectors

10. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy Economic Parameters - External National Trade Balance Position - Currency Position – Exchange rate changes, reserves, etc. National debt

11. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy Socio-Economic Conditions of the Most Affected Per Capita or Household incomes In-kind Wage Earnings Income Distribution HIV/AIDS and other factors

12. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy General Development Indicators Human Development Index Poverty levels – various definitions

13. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy Agriculture Sector in the National Economy Size and Share of the Sector Employment and Livelihood, Dependence on Agriculture Export Contributions of Agriculture Ag. & economic policy changes

14. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy Food Production/Balance

15. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy National Food Balance Sheet Domestic Availability Total Utilization Import Requirements

16. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy Table. Country X: Total grain supply/demand balance, January–December 2004 (‘000 tonnes) Domestic availability13 800 Opening stocks Production Main season Secondary season 500 13 300 13 000 300 Total utilization14 010 Food use Feed use Seed use Losses Exports Closing stocks 10 944 300 650 1390 70 656 Import requirement210 Commercial imports Food aid received and pledged 50 60 Uncovered deficit100

17. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy Domestic Availability Opening stocks Domestic production Commercial and concessional imports

18. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy Stocks: Opening and Closing On-Farm Stocks Private Stocks Publicly-Held Stocks Stocks in Ports and Transit

19. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy Crop Production Estimation Information – GOs, NGOs, Organizations Macrolevel – Satellite imagery and data, Rainfall data Farmer surveys, crop cutting experiments Factors affecting current production Market/trader visits – cross-checks Yield comparison with last, normal, best, worst Other important sources of food and income

20. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy Commercial import capacity Concessional imports Uncovered deficit Of which emergency food aid pledged/anticipated Import Requirements

21. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy Commercial Food Imports (Ability and willingness to import by public and private sectors) Import capacity –Export earnings – historical, current –Import parity prices –Other priorities for imports –Commercial market capacity (effective demand) Degree of currency control –Foreign exchange for food imports Degree of grain marketing control –Private versus government trading

22. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy Human consumption Apparent consumption rates Population estimates Feed use Seed use Industrial uses Post-harvest losses Exports Closing stocks Total Food Utilization

23. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy Vulnerability Assessment

24. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy Vulnerability/Needs Assessment (WFP) Review of emergency food aid Household food security outlook for next year Nutrition status Coping mechanisms Food aid needs and targeting of assistance Relief food aid requirements in 2004 Food basket considerations Local purchases Emergency food security reserves Logistics issues Implementation and other issues

25. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy Short Term Food Security Strategy Number of people in need of assistance and the volume and composition of food aid (WFP) Reconciliation of the national food gap (FAO side) and the total assistance requirement (WFP side) Recommendations

26. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy If you have any comments or suggestions on the methodology, special reports, or this presentation, please send them to: GIEWS1@fao.org