1. Commercial Tank Water Heaters Out-of-Compliance (OOC) UES Measure Recommendation Regional Technical Forum November 19, 2013

2. Presentation Outline 2 Staff Highlighted Areas Measure Definition Measure History Estimate of Regional Potential Staff Proposal to Bring Measure Into Compliance RTF Decision Photo taken from http://www.hotwater.com/water-heaters/residential/conventional/electric/promax/promax-electric-tank-water-heater-ect-120/

3. Staff Highlighted Areas 3 Measure set to deactivate in November unless there is a plan to bring back into compliance Survey conducted by RTF suggests measure is high priority (relative to other OOC measures) for the region Recommendation memo requirements not likely to be achieved without significant field research Staff estimates potential is small enough (~1-2 aMW) to warrant moving measure to Small Saver category

4. Measure Definition 4 Installation of a high-efficiency electric storage water heater in place of a baseline, current practice water heater – Baseline water heater is currently set to the average efficiency in the AHRI database (used as a proxy for the market average) – Measure includes both residential-type heaters (efficiency determined by Energy Factor, or EF) and commercial-type heaters (efficiency determined by standby loss)

5. Measure History June 2010 – Current UES measure adoptedCurrent UES measure adopted Oct. 2012 –SBW recommendation to change measure status to “Out of Compliance” adoptedSBW recommendation to change measure status to “Out of Compliance” adopted Nov. 30, 2013 – Measure sunset date 5

6. Estimate of Regional Potential Staff looked at several ways to generate rough estimate of commercial tank potential – Used regional square footage and/or number of buildings in region to estimate number of tanks – Used regional consumption, end use (%), and percent savings to estimate available kWh potential Most reliable methods of estimation show regional potential between 0.5 and 3 aMW Staff believes 1-2 aMW is a reasonable estimate 6

7. Staff Proposal to Bring Measure Into Compliance Staff proposal – Bring measure into compliance as a Small Saver – Address all items in SBW recommendation memo at the level of rigor required for a Small Saver measure – Update market baseline and/or efficient case if either has shifted significantly (e.g. > 10%) – Bring measure back to RTF by Dec/Jan for a vote 7

8. RTF Decision “I _________ move to accept staff’s proposed plan to bring the Commercial Tank Water Heater UES into compliance and to extend the existing measure UES until February 28, 2014.” 8

9. Additional Slides 9

10. Estimate of Regional Potential (continued) Steps to Estimate Potential (Method 1) 1) Total Regional SqFt with Elec. Hot Water (Sqft Region, Elec ) = ∑ building type (%Sat Elec x %Sat Tank x SqFt Building ) 2) Number of Electric Storage Tanks in Region (Tanks) = ∑ building type (Gal/SqFt/Hr HotWater x Sqft Building, Elec / GPH Tank ) 3) Estimated Potential [aMW] = Tanks x UES Current / 1000 / 8760 10

11. Estimate of Regional Potential (continued) Sources used to inform parameters: – SqFt BuildingType : Council forecasts for 2030 1 – %Sat Elec, %Sat Tank : CBSA (2009) 2 – Gal/SqFt/Hr HotWater : AWWA (2000) 3 – GPH Tank : Manufacturer sheets 4 – UES Current : Current RTF workbook 5 11 1 See “Council SF Forecast” tab in posted workbook at http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/meetings/2013/11/Default.asphttp://rtf.nwcouncil.org/meetings/2013/11/Default.asp 2 The Cadmus Group, Inc. 2009. Northwest Commercial Building Stock Assessment (Report No. 10-211). Portland, OR: Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance.Northwest Commercial Building Stock Assessment (Report No. 10-211). 3 AWWA. 2000. Commercial and Institutional End Uses of Water. 4 http://www.hotwater.com/lit/sizing/aossg88120.pdf, http://www.statewaterheaters.com/lit/handbooks/317913- 000.pdfhttp://www.hotwater.com/lit/sizing/aossg88120.pdf 5 RTF website: http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/measures/measure.asp?id=102http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/measures/measure.asp?id=102