1. Page 1 www.HyWays.de HyWays Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005 HyWays Use of COPERT model for environmental analysis Antonio Mattucci ENEA

2. Page 2 www.HyWays.de HyWays Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005 Summary HyWays Project Aim of environmental analysis COPERT description Approach for environmental analysis Present status and results Considerations

3. Page 3 www.HyWays.de HyWays Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005 HyWays Project HyWays is an integrated project, whose aim is to evaluate selected stake-holder scenarios for future sustainable hydrogen energy systems. This will lead to recommendations for a European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap, reflecting country specific aspects in the participating member states. The Roadmap will consider real life conditions, by taking into account not only technological but also institutional, geographic and socio/ economic barriers and opportunities as representative for the different member states. The Roadmap will describe systematically the future steps to be taken for large-scale introduction of hydrogen as an energy carrier in the transport and power market and as storage medium for renewable energy. It will result in an action plan for the implementation of the hydrogen deployment in Europe, describing at the same time the effects and impacts of this introduction on the EU economy, society and environment. The action plan will propose concrete policy measures, priorities in technology development and train-ing/education.

4. Page 4 www.HyWays.de HyWays Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005 HyWays Project

5. Page 5 www.HyWays.de HyWays Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005 HyWays Project

6. Page 6 www.HyWays.de HyWays Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005 Aim of environmental analysis The environmental analysis looks at the effects on environment, as consequence of H 2 introduction, in terms of both global and local effects. Global effects are already considered by MARKAL model, which is able able to calculate CO 2 emissions from energy sectors. Looking at local effects, residential applications can be important and are to be taken into account for all the places where they have significant impact on population, but only for MS where this can be important. Such analysis requires a clear idea of the new energy systems and their territorial localization. Therefore the most important field where the environmental impact can be evaluated in a general way is the road transport. Such analysis will be carried out using COPERT model.

7. Page 7 www.HyWays.de HyWays Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005 COPERT model evaluates the emissions from road transport, considering the following vehicle categories, reflecting the UN-ECE classification: Passenger Cars M1 Passenger Cars M1 Light Duty Vehicles N1 Light Duty Vehicles N1 Heavy Duty Vehicles N2, N3 Heavy Duty Vehicles N2, N3 Urban Buses & Coaches M2, M Urban Buses & Coaches M2, M Two Wheelers L1, L2, L3, L4, L5 Two Wheelers L1, L2, L3, L4, L5 Pollutant emissions are calculated considering the different legislations that have imposed specific vehicle emission limits during the last years. To this end the vehicle population for each of the above category is divided according to the specific applicable legislations (i.e. pre-EURO, EUROx, etc.). COPERT description

8. Page 8 www.HyWays.de HyWays Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005 Data to be provided as input: 1. Base Fuel Data (overall consumption of the different fuels, in order to check the adequacy of the results, fuel specifications, etc.) 2. Activity Data (fleet composition, number of vehicles, vehicle mileage, …) 3. Usage Data (speeds and shares in the different domains, etc) 4. Miscellaneous (i.e. monthly temperatures, average daily trip distance, evaporation data, average load for freight transport, etc.) Data required by COPERT model COPERT description (2)

9. Page 9 www.HyWays.de HyWays Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005 Many of COPERT inputs are coming from MARKAL results. Among them we can insert the number of vehicles, organized in categories and types, the annual traveled mileage, the share of their use in different domains, the fuel consumption, etc. This doesnt mean that MARKAL information can be automatically transferred to COPERT, as: 1. The assumptions made under the two models are different; therefore a simple association of MARKAL values to similar COPERT structures is normally inadequate, as often there is neither a mutual complete overlapping, nor any easy formal way to modify MARKAL data to fit the COPERT schematisation in all the cases 2. MARKAL data are typically cumulative values averaged in a decade and their distribution to the many vehicle technologies considered in COPERT for the same category can hardly be schematized in a clear and consistent way for all the vehicles 3. COPERT, as it is normally used to calculate road transport emission inventory, imposes a consistency check on the overall fuel consumption, comparing the fuel result with total fuel sold in the MS, to qualify the emission calculation, but this requires real data on fuel and fleet composition, instead of PRIMES forecasts. Input/output – Framework considerations Approach for environmental analysis

10. Page 10 www.HyWays.de HyWays Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005 technologies each country COPERT needs other inputs in addition to MARKAL results, in particular the number of vehicles belonging to the technologies that are applicable to each specific vehicle category, and this is required for each country. modelrelative share Therefore a model, able to determine year by year the relative share of the technologies for each vehicle type in the fleet for the time span from 2000 to 2050, has been developed. TREMOVE DB country by country original fleet composition. To this end a synergy has been activated with TREMOVE DB that provides the information, country by country, on the original fleet composition in a way consistent with COPERT, together with the theoretical information to extend the vehicle fleet forecast. In fact a forecast model is required, as the data provided by TREMOVE DB cover only a time span up to 2020, while under HyWays the timeframe is to be extended to 2050. Approach for environmental analysis(2) Approach for environmental analysis (2) Input/output – Framework considerations

11. Page 11 www.HyWays.de HyWays Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005 vehicle type, technology year vehicle survival probability Using TREMOVE database, for each class of vehicles, through the selection of related data (vehicle type, technology and year), it is possible to build the curves of vehicle survival probability to be used to make the fleet forecast. Such functions are specific for the different categories of vehicles (passenger cars, LDVs, buses, etc.) and are also determined for each Member State on the basis of statistical information. The survival probability trends are held constant during the forecast period and for all the technologies belonging to the same vehicle category. Approach for environmental analysis(3) Approach for environmental analysis (3) Input/output – Framework considerations

12. Page 12 www.HyWays.de HyWays Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005 Approach for environmental analysis(4) Approach for environmental analysis (4) Italy

13. Page 13 www.HyWays.de HyWays Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005 Approach for environmental analysis(5) Approach for environmental analysis (5) Germany

14. Page 14 www.HyWays.de HyWays Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005 The results provided by COPERT runs have been discussed with the other Project partners in the general meeting held in April at Munich. Presently it is under execution a second run of the models. In any case the following additional assumptions/positions are considered for COPERT analysis: for the reference year (2000) COPERT model has been made consistent with country statistics in road transport consumption of fuels and with MS vehicle fleet statistics; the parameters (share, speed, etc.) are not changed for all the forecasts two new EURO legislations (V and VI) have been considered in the model (through direct modification of the ACCESS database), with changes on pollutant limits (EURO V) and in fuel consumption for both of them (i.e. as result of Voluntary Agreements between car manufacturers and EC) for hydrogen, due to lack of information on specific emissions (mainly NO x for ICE vehicles), no pollutant emission has been considered the new limits on fuel content of SO 2 for 2010 have been also introduced the COPERT vehicle population fits the results provided by MARKAL outputs Present status and results

15. Page 15 www.HyWays.de HyWays Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005 Preliminary results (IT baseline)

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21. Page 21 www.HyWays.de HyWays Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005 Preliminary results (IT baseline)

22. Page 22 www.HyWays.de HyWays Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005 Preliminary results (Hydrogen scenario Low - DE)

23. Page 23 www.HyWays.de HyWays Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005 Preliminary results (Hydrogen scenario Low - DE)

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26. Page 26 www.HyWays.de HyWays Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005 Preliminary results (Hydrogen High – MS cumulative)

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30. Page 30 www.HyWays.de HyWays Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005 Preliminary results (Hydrogen High – MS cumulative)

31. Page 31 www.HyWays.de HyWays Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005 For all the MS the introduction of hydrogen vehicles provides interesting benefits, at least for the regulated emissions. For the other emissions the analysis has not yet been done. Due to the larger initial penetration of hydrogen vehicles, the most consistent effects are detected in the urban domains, while in the highways the effects are of lower, as trucks are not converted and this keeps high the pollutant emissions. Looking at the two H 2 scenarios, the effects are quite different at 2050; from the point of view of the emission the low scenario can be considered as delayed of 10-15 years respect to the high one. Of course, the main driving factor for pollutant emission reduction is the number of vehicles, as H 2 is almost emission free. Considerations Considerations