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1 Electric Transportation and Goods Movement Technologies David L. Modisette California Electric Transportation Coalition October, 2006.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Electric Transportation and Goods Movement Technologies David L. Modisette California Electric Transportation Coalition October, 2006."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Electric Transportation and Goods Movement Technologies David L. Modisette California Electric Transportation Coalition October, 2006

2 2 Conclusion: Electric drive technologies are a viable component of a portfolio to reduce emissions and petroleum use Today electric technologies compete well in markets such as –Lift trucks, with a market share of 60% –Burden/personnel carriers, tow tractors, and turf trucks with a market share of 40% –Sweepers, scrubbers, and burnishers with a market share of 80+% –Lawn and garden equipment with a market share of 38% Electric transportation growth markets that can have a significant impact on reducing emissions and petroleum use are –Truck Stop Electrification (idling reduction) –Port Electrification (AMP or cold ironing) –Electric-Standby Truck/Container Refrigeration Units –Light- duty Plug-In Hybrids

3 3 Electric Transportation Technologies are Many and Diverse

4 4 Transportation Policy Drivers Air Pollution Largest Source; 65% of all Criteria Pollutants Global Warming Largest Source From Transportation; Over 40% Petroleum Dependence (95% one Fuel, 60% Imported)

5 5 Goods Movement Plan Climate Action Plan Energy Action Plan Integrated Energy Policy Report Compliance option in many CARB rules Eligible in most Moyer grant categories Sustaining Our Transportation Future (Battery, hybridization, hydrogen fuel cell powered) Increasingly, CA is Encouraging Electrification To Reduce Emissions, Particulates and Petroleum Usage

6 6 Economic Drivers Electricity is Cheaper than Gasoline or Diesel Reduced O&M, longer life. Initial cost of the vehicle is higher. What payback will the consumer accept?

7 7 Benefits From The Electric Grid Source EPRI Domestic, petroleum free, multiple feed stocks Excess off-peak capacity Infrastructure in place Reduced GHG emissions Reduces urban air pollution Generation only getting cleaner over time (regulations, technology)

8 8 Non-Road Electric Vehicles About 300,000 electrics in CA today Wide range of electric equipment –large units such as forklifts –airport ground support equipment –small units such as burden carriers –emergence of small utility trucks for ports Significant market-share today. Additional electrification through 2020; = to removing 580,000 MY 2005 cars (NOx + ROG)

9 9 Truck Idling Reduction with Electrification 76,000+ sleeper cab trucks in California today and growing very fast Idle at truck stops up to 16 hours per day. Off-Board & On-Board options. Truckers can SAVE money. If electrified through 2020; = to removing 360,000 MY 2005 cars (NOx + ROG) NOTE: above numbers are conservative - based on small diesel APU. They would be much larger if based on main truck engine idling.

10 10 Port Electrification  One ship = 4 tons pollutants at the dock.  16 ships = emissions of 1 million cars.  POLA-LB = 43% nation’s goods entrance.  POLA-LB is largest source of emissions in SCAQMD.  Shipping expected to triple by 2020.  If 100 ships electrified = to removing 535,000 MY 2005 cars (NOx + ROG+ SOx)  ARB Goal: 80% of ship visits electrified Navy has used “cold ironing” for 50 + years (San Diego). Commercial examples in Alaska, Seattle, Bay Area, Los Angeles, Europe

11 11 Electric-Standby Truck/Container Refrigeration Units E-TRUs plug in at dock, use diesel on road. About 4,000 – 7,000 in CA today Plug in at distribution centers, warehouses or ports, but use diesel on road 31,000 diesel TRUs could switch to e- TRUs Additional electrification through 2020; = to removing 400,000 MY 2005 cars (NOx + ROG)

12 12 Plug-In Hybrids HEV with larger battery pack. Can be recharged from a standard electric wall outlet. 20-40 mile all-electric range, or “blended” operation. Gasoline HEV after that. Large Societal Benefits compared to current no-plug hybrids: –25% – 50% reduction in NOx and ROG. –30% – 45% reduction in greenhouse gases. –45% – 65% reduction in petroleum.

13 13 Plug-In HEV Sprinter Van EPRI and DaimlerChrysler - strong collaborative partnership EPRI and DaimlerChrysler - strong collaborative partnership DaimlerChrysler announced production version of PHEV Sprinter at Hanover Truck Show in September 2004 DaimlerChrysler announced production version of PHEV Sprinter at Hanover Truck Show in September 2004 Next Steps—30 vehicle test program, 100 vehicle fleet demo Next Steps—30 vehicle test program, 100 vehicle fleet demo  20-mile electric range  Up to 40% reduction in fuel consumption  Better acceleration than stock Sprinter  15 kWh Lithium Ion advanced battery  120 hp electric motor (up to 280 hp peak)

14 14 GHG Reductions from Alt Fuels & Hybrids (from ARB GHG Staff Report) Total CO2 Equivalent Percent Reduction from Vehicle TypeEmissions (g/mi)Conventional Gasoline Conventional Vehicles449 0% Hydrogen ICE (NG-SR)38015% Compressed Natural Gas37816% Liquid Petroleum Gas36419% Ethanol (E85)34423% Moderate Hybrid-Electric31929% Hydrogen FCV (NG-SR)21054% Advanced Hybrid-Electric21054% Plug-In Hybrid 20 (NG-gen)17162% Electric Vehicle (NG-gen)15067%

15 15 Overall MPG (gasoline) Real World Testing- SMUD PHEV MPG is 2.0x more than HEV 29 trips Avg. 14.8 miles/trip Combined City, Highway and Urban

16 16 Joint CEC/CARB Strategy to Reduce Petroleum Dependence: Fuel Substitution Options

17 17 TIAX Evaluation of “Expected” and “Achievable” Market Growth and related Impacts (2005 Study) Methodology included 2002 baseline populations and estimated populations for 2010, 2015, and 2020 for two scenarios –“Expected” market growth —natural growth plus growth associated with current regulations and incentive programs –“Achievable” market growth—includes above plus aggressive statewide legislative, regulatory and/or incentive programs –Estimate petroleum reduction –Estimate electricity demand growth –Estimate net emissions benefits (GHG, NOx, ROG, and PM)

18 18 Expected and Achievable Population of Electric Transportation Technologies in California

19 19 Breakout of estimated Expected reductions in GHG and Criteria Pollutant emissions by category / application G HG (million tons per year, CO2 equivalent); Criteria (tons per day) Pollutant / Year Electric Drive Technology or Application GHG / 2020 Criteria / 2020 Truck Stop Electrification1.4658.1 Alternative Marine Power0.207.76 Electric Transport Refrigeration Units0.093.11 Off-Road Industrial Vehicles0.311.31 Lawn & Garden Equipment00 Plug-In HEVs1.380.91 Hydrogen FCVs0.520.87 On-Road Battery Electric Vehicles0.04 Other0.01 TOTAL of Estimated Avg. Reductions4.0072.1

20 20 Breakout of estimated Achievable reductions in GHG and Criteria Pollutant emissions by category / application GHG (million tons per year, CO2 equivalent); Criteria (tons per day) Pollutant / Year Electric Drive Technology or Application GHG / 2020 Criteria / 2020 Truck Stop Electrification3.02121 Alternative Marine Power0.3011.5 Electric Transport Refrigeration Units0.2813.8 Off-Road Industrial Vehicles2.9017.1 Lawn & Garden Equipment0.3918.6 Plug-In HEVs11.507.95 Hydrogen FCVs0.651.08 On-Road Battery Electric Vehicles1.241.23 Other0.232.24 TOTAL of Estimated Avg. Reductions20.50194.5

21 21 Conclusion: Electric drive technologies are a viable component of a portfolio to reduce emissions and petroleum use Today electric technologies compete well in markets such as –Lift trucks, with a market share of 60% –Burden/personnel carriers, tow tractors, and turf trucks with a market share of 40% –Sweepers, scrubbers, and burnishers with a market share of 80+% –Lawn and garden equipment with a market share of 38% Electric transportation growth markets that can have a significant impact on reducing emissions and petroleum use are –Truck Stop Electrification (idling reduction) –Port Electrification (AMP or cold ironing) –Electric-Standby Truck/Container Refrigeration Units –Light- duty Plug-In Hybrids

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