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Introduction to Macroeconomics Graphs and Tables Part #1.

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Presentation on theme: "Introduction to Macroeconomics Graphs and Tables Part #1."— Presentation transcript:

1 Introduction to Macroeconomics Graphs and Tables Part #1

2 Figure I-A-1.1: Real GDP per capita for US 1960- 2013

3 Table I-A-1.2: Comparing North and South Korea

4 Figure I-A-2.1: Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe December 2008: Inflation at 6.5 quindecillion novemdecillion percent (65 followed by 107 zeros).

5 Figure I-A-2.2: Zimbabwe’ Real GDP Growth, 1980-2010

6 Figure I-A-2.4: Hyperinflation in Germany Source: Mankiw, Principles of Macroeconomics, 3 rd ed. (2004),

7 Table I-B-1.1: Nominal and Real GDP Year Nominal GDP (1970 = 100) Price Index (1970 $s) Real GDP 1970 $1,000 100 1980 $3,000 150 Formula: Real GDP = (Nominal GDP/Price Index)100 1970: Real GDP = ($1,000/100)100 = $1,000 1980: Real GDP = ($3,000/150)100 = $2,000

8 Figure I-B-1.1: The Complete Business Cycle Real GDP Time P T P (1)(2)(3) (1) Recession Phase (2) Recovery Phase (3) Expansion Phase R

9 Table I-B-1.2: The Great Depression, 1929-40 Dates (P to T) Duration% Fall in Real GDP Percentage Point Rise in uer Recovery Period (T to R) The GD08/29 to 03/33 43 Months 30.5% 22.0 (3.2% to 25.2%) *50 Months Recession05/37 to 07/38 14 Months 5.1% 4.8 (14.3% to 19.1%) 18 Months Sources: “Dates”, “Duration”, and “Recovery Period” from NBER Business Cycle Dates for Contractions and Expansions; “% Fall in GDP” from Series 47-70 in Historical Statistics of the US from Colonial Times to 1970, Part 1 in Constant 1958 $s; “Percentage Point Rise in uer” from Series D 1-10 in Historical Statistics of the US from Colonial Times to 1970, Part 1. Note: Of the 125 Months covered in the data above fully 56 of them (45.0%) were spent in an economy where GDP was falling.

10 Table I-B-1.3: Postwar Recessions # Dates (P to T)Duration Percentage Point Rise in uer 111/48 to 10/49 11 Months 4.4 207/53 to 05/54 10 Months 3.6 308/57 to 04/58 8 Months 3.8 404/60 to 02/61 10 Months 2.3

11 Table I-B-1.3: Postwar Recessions # Dates (P to T)Duration Percentage Point Rise in uer 512/69 to 11/70 11 Months 2.7 611/73 to 03/75 16 Months 4.4 701/80 to 07/80 6 Months 2.2 807/81 to 11/82 16 Months 3.6

12 Table I-B-1.3: Postwar Recessions #Dates (P to T) DurationPercentage Point Rise in uer 907/90 to 03/91 8 Months 1.9 1003/01 to 11/01 8 Months 1.9 1112/07 to 06/09 18 Months 5.0

13 Figure I-B-1.2: Real GDP-Percent of Previous Peak 1959-2012

14 Figure I-B-1.3: Employment-Percent of Previous Peak, 1959-2012

15 Figure I-B-1.4: Unemployed by Duration, 1969- 2013

16 Figure I-B-1.5: Employment Population Ratio and Labor Force Participation Rate, 1960-2013

17 Table I-B-3.1: Price Indices and the Inflation Rate Year P ΔP/P 1 100.00 ---- 2 110.00 10% 3 121.00 4 133.10 ΔP/P 12 = p 12 ’ = (110.00 – 100.00)/100.00 = 0.10 ΔP/P 23 = p 23 ’ = ΔP/P 34 = p 34 ’ =

18 Table I-B-3.2: Illustrating the Difference Between Inflation and Changes in Relative Prices Good (1) 1980 (2a) 1990 (2b) 1990 Oranges $5 $10 Bicycles $100 $200 $100 (1)To (2a): Pure Inflation (1) To (2b): Change in Relative Price

19 Table I-B-3.3: Distinguishing between Inflation, Disinflation and Deflation Inflation Disinflation Deflation Year P ΔP/P P P 1100.0 ----100.0 ----100.0 ---- 2110.0 10%110.0 10% 90.0 -10% 3121.0 10%118.8 8% 81.0 -10% 4133.1 10%125.9 6% 72.9 -10% ΔP/P 23 = p 23 ’ = (118.8 – 110.0)/110.0 = 8% ΔP/P 23 = p 23 ’ = (81.0 – 90.0)/90.0 = -10%

20 Table I-B-3.4 Perfectly Anticipated and Imperfectly Anticipated Inflation Case r p’ p e i = r + p e r* = i – p’ 1 5% 2 8% 5% 3 3% 5% Redistribution: Occurs in Cases 2 and 3.

21 Table I-B-3.5: Example of Indexation Year Nominal Wage Price Index Real Wage 1996 $15.00 100.0 $15.00 1997 110.0 $15.00 1998 121.0 $15.00 Real Wage = (Nominal Wage/Price Index) 100 Nominal Wage = Real Wage (Price Index/100)

22 Table I-B-4.1: Annual Inflation and Unemployment Rate Data: Summary Time Average Rate Standard Average Standard Period of Inflation Deviation uer Deviation 1947-65 1.81% 1.84% 4.83% 1.12% 1965-83 6.38% 3.22% 6.07% 1.88% 1983-07 3.11% 0.92% 5.84% 1.26% 2007-13 Sources: Economic Report of the President, 2013 and 1995, various Tables.

23 Figure I-B-4.1 : Inflation Rate 1947-2009

24 Figure I-B-4.2: Unemployment Rate 1947-2014

25 Table I-B-4.2: Summary GDP Data, 1947-2014 Annual GDP Stnd Dev of Start End Growth Annual Growth 1947:1 1964:4 $1,934.5 $3,780.2 3.79% (18-4) 1965:1 1982:4 $3,873.5 $6,493.1 2.91% (18-4) 1983:1 2007:4 $6,578.2 $14,991.8 3.35% (25-2) 2008:1 2013:3 $14,889.5 $16,205.6 1.42% (6-1) (2.21%) Source: BEA 2009 $s

26 Figure I-B-4.3: % Change in Real GDP 1947-2013

27 Figure I-C-1: Total Government Expenditures, 1959-2014

28 Figure I-C-2: Total Government Expenditures, 1959-2014

29 Figure I-C-3:Total Government Spending as a Percent of GDP, 1947-2012 Source: Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis, Aug 28, 2012

30 Figure I-C-4: Total Expenditures as Percent of GDP, 1791-2011 Source: The Big Picture by Barry Ritholtz, July 29th, 2011,

31 Table I-C-5: Dates of Recessions and Anti-Recession Legislation Beginning End Legislation Dates November 1948October 1949 August 1957April 1958April-July 1958 April 1960February 1961May 1961 September 1962 December 1969November 1970August 1971 November 1973March 1975 July 1976 May 1977 July 1981November 1982January-March 1983 July 1990March 1991November 1991 April 1993 From Bruce Bartlett, “How Not to Stimulate the Economy,” The Public Interest, N. 112 (Summer 1993), p. 109

32 Figure I-C-6: Federal Deficits 1940-2013

33 Figure I-C-7: Federal Debt Held by Public, 1940-2013

34 Figure I-C-8: Total Public Debt, 1940-2013

35 Figure I-C-9: Total Public Debt as % of GDP, 1966-2013

36 Table I-C-10: Ten Largest Episodes of Successful Fiscal Adjustments

37 Figure I-C-10: Ten Largest Episodes of Fiscal Adjustment

38 Figure I-C-11: Percentage Growth Rate Real GDP and Real Private GDP, 1930-1950 Source: CEA Annual Report, 1995

39 Figure I-C-12: Canada’s Budget Reform Results

40 Figure I-C-13: Composition of Federal Spending

41 Figure I-C-14: Composition of Payments to Individuals

42 Figure I-C-15: Size of Shadow Economies, 1994-98

43 Figure I-D-1: Reallocation of Labor Over Time Source: W. Michael Cox and Richard Alm, “A Better Way” Annual Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2003, p. 4.

44 Table I-E-1: Market for Hamburger Price = P Q D = Quantity DemandedQ S = Quantity Supplied $5.50 000 1,000 $5.00 100 900 $4.50 200 800 $4.00 300 700 $3.50 400 600 $3.00 500 $2.50 600 400 $2.00 700 300 $1.50 800 200 $1.00 900 100 $0.50 1,000 000

45 Figure I-E-1: Equilibrium in the Hamburger Market S0S0 Q P 500 D0D0 $3.00 $5.50 $0.50

46 Figure I-E-2: Effects of a Price Ceiling on the Hamburger Market S0S0 Q P 200 500 800 D0D0 $3.00 $5.50 ED ED = Q D – Q S = 800 – 200 = 600 P C = $1.50 $0.50


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