1. Four Futures for the Arctic Unpacking the Food, Water, Energy Nexus Philip A. Loring, University of Saskatchewan School of Environment and Sustainability

2. What exactly is the “nexus”? Connections, Interdependencies, Trade-offs Loring OECD 2015 – Four Futures for the Arctic

4. EnergyFoodWater Trade-offs Vulnerabilities Resilience Health Sustainability Loring OECD 2015 – Four Futures for the Arctic

5. An Example

6. Loring OECD 2015 – Four Futures for the Arctic Another Example

7. EnergyFoodWater Climate Trade-offs Vulnerabilities Resilience Health Security Loring OECD 2015 – Four Futures for the Arctic

8. Climate Change: Threat or Opportunity? The very existence of the Alaska Native way of life may be threatened if climate change results in rising ocean levels, melting permafrost, increased coastal erosion … the ultimate solution is to tackle climate change at its source 2013 (from her website) We in Alaska recognize we are an arctic nation [with] enormous resource potential … if you are moving grain or [liquefied natural gas] or canned tomatoes, the reality is you save money if you can save fuel … and that is what an opening Arctic provides us. 2013 (Quoted in the June 14 Arctic Sounder) US Senator Lisa Murkowski Loring OECD 2015 – Four Futures for the Arctic

9. Two Narratives Vulnerability & AdaptationA Frontier Loring OECD 2015 – Four Futures for the Arctic

10. Hasty Development, Manufactured Vulnerability

12. Four Futures in the Arctic Demand for Resources Governance “Arctic Race” No-holds barred, gold- rush mentality “Polar Lows” Murky, underdeveloped future “Arctic Saga” High demand and stable governance lead to moderate development with arctic cultures & ecosystems preserved “Polar Preserve” Low demand and stable governance lead to extensive preservation of Arctic Unstable, ad-hoc Stable, consistent From AMSA 2009Loring and Gerlach - Next Steps for Food Security in the North

13. Four Futures in the Arctic Demand for Resources Governance “Arctic Race” No-holds barred, gold- rush mentality “Polar Lows” Murky, underdeveloped future “Arctic Saga” High demand and stable governance lead to moderate development with arctic cultures & ecosystems preserved “Polar Preserve” Low demand and stable governance lead to extensive preservation of Arctic Unstable, ad-hoc Stable, consistent From AMSA 2009Loring and Gerlach - Next Steps for Food Security in the North

14. Are we acquiescing to Climate Change? Do things fail now more? Sure. Do I have to try new things to fix them? Yeah. But it’s not because of climate change. Climate change is just making things worse. It’s like that TV show MacGyver, you know? Yeah that’s me. … Are we adapting? I don’t know about that, but I do know that we’re pretty adaptable.

15. A Rights-based Approach to Development in the North? Sustainable Development requires understanding of the linkages, trade offs “Balanced Development” w/ Indigenous Governance Recognize basic human right to food, water, energy security Loring and Gerlach - Next Steps for Food Security in the North

16. Thank you Questions, thoughts? SFN Project Team: Philip A. Loring (PI), University of Saskatchewan & University of Alaska Fairbanks Craig Gerlach, University of Calgary William Schnabel, UAF Samuel Norlin, UAF Harry Penn, UAF Yasmeen Hossain, UAF Sarah Betcher, UAF Megan Hinzman, UAF Andy Mahoney, UAF Rebecca Rolph, UAF Larry Hinzman, UAF John Walsh, UAF Larry Hamilton, University of New Hampshire Richard Lammers, University of New Hampshire Shari Gearheard, University of Colorado Boulder Henry Huntington, Huntington Consulting NIFA HEC Project Team: Thomas Johnson (PI), University of Missouri Judith Stallman, Univerity of Missouri Neus Raines, University of Missouri Bruce Weber, Oregon State Bruce Steel, Oregon State Phil Loring, University of Alaska Larry Duffy, University of Alaska Ntam Baharanyi, Tuskegee University Thierno Thiam, Tuskegee University Award # 1263853 Award # 2013-70003-2092 http://www.sustainablefuturesnorth.org