1. PREVENTION PROGRAM AND DISASTER PREPAREDNESS Ruben Valbuena Volunteer university UN'S UNITE SGP-UNDP / Civil Defense rubenvalbar@yahoo.es December 13, 2006 Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic TECHNICAL COMMITTEE ON EARLY WARNING SYSTEM National Emergency Commission-CNE

2. PROGRAMA DE PREVENCIÓN Y PREPARACIÓN ANTE DESASTRES NATURALES Early Warning System Are the provision of timely and effective information through identified institutions, that allow individuals exposed to a threat, taking action to avoid or reduce their risk and preparedness for effective response. Early warning systems include three elements, namely: knowledge and hazard mapping, monitoring and forecasting impending events, processing and dissemination of understandable warnings to political authorities and population, as well as adoption of appropriate and timely action in response to such alerts. What is the ultimate goal of Early Warning System? Reducing disaster risk in a society

3. PREVENTION PROGRAM AND DISASTER PREPAREDNESS Early Warning Systems offer the possibility to institutions and social groups vulnerable to the risks of designing a coordinated action to protect extraordinary range of events potentially harmful. It is a tool (a means to an end) to coordinate the alert or warning the population that may be affected by a natural process determined and institutional action. Improve the responsiveness of a company upon the occurrence of potentially harmful natural processes and, ultimately, reduce disaster risk.

4. PREVENTION PROGRAM AND DISASTER PREPAREDNESS Some prerequisites for the construction of the SAT: It is held in a cardinal pillar: the socialization of information. We refer to the warning being delivered to a sector of the population is exposed to risk in the occurrence of a disturbing phenomenon and the mechanisms of response (action strategy to deal with potentially destructive natural phenomena). It is imperative to train people to be able to react when an alert is issued, otherwise the Early Warning System will be completely useless.

5. PREVENTION PROGRAM AND DISASTER PREPAREDNESS "According to experts, if the countries affected by the Indian Ocean tsunami had received a warning system such as exists in case of eruption and earthquakes in the Pacific Rim, the death toll would have been much less than the 165,000 dead and 27,000 are reported missing so far, as people have had time to save themselves by taking refuge in areas near high [...] ". Source: News Centre UN http://www.un.org/spanish/News/fullstorynews.asp?newsID=3860&criteria1=tsunami

6. PREVENTION PROGRAM AND DISASTER PREPAREDNESS What agencies are involved in an Early Warning System? Those agencies, higher education institutions, NGOs and private entities that generate information relevant to the establishment of an efficient SAT and useful for the population vulnerable to natural hazards. These organisms may be related to meteorology, hydrology, geology, seismology, environmental... In the Dominican Republic... INDRHI UASD-ISU University Seismological Institute ONESVIE

7. PREVENTION PROGRAM AND DISASTER PREPAREDNESS What other elements are an early warning system? A vital aspect for the efficient operation of the SAT is the correct interpretation is made of the information released. We refer to the leaders, businessmen and people. The efficiency of SAT depends on the socialization of information (dissemination of the alert) and the quality of the interpretation of it.

8. PREVENTION PROGRAM AND DISASTER PREPAREDNESS SAT Meteorology Hydrology Mining Seismic Evaluation Agriculture Environment Health Education Industry And Trade Public Works Electricity Hall D.N. Municipal League Foreign Affairs Interior and Police armed forces National Police Red Cross fire transportation dwelling private companies Emergency Operations Center The National Emergency Commission and public and private institutions that are

9. PREVENTION PROGRAM AND DISASTER PREPAREDNESS Poverty map (vulnerability) Flood Map (threat) Dynamic Map risks (R = V x A) Early Warning System

10. PREVENTION PROGRAM AND DISASTER PREPAREDNESS Dynamic risk maps Information about a potentially harmful event Civil SocietyPublic InstitutionsPrivate Sector Design And Dissemination Of Warning Early Warning System Coordinated Actions The SAT Modeling Phenomena Be Natural Cause Damage Preparation of the vulnerable population at risk Fed in real time

11. PREVENTION PROGRAM AND DISASTER PREPAREDNESS How can we build an early warning system in the Dominican Republic to reduce the vulnerability of the population to major natural hazards in the country? Hydrogeological risk Seismic-geological risk The main natural hazards affecting the Dominican society identified by the Technical Committee of the Early Warning System are the risk hydrogeological and geological seismic risk

12. PREVENTION PROGRAM AND DISASTER PREPAREDNESS Database Dynamic Risk Mapping Early Warning System Hydrogeological risk INDRHI Precipitation Winds Air Pressure … Flow Level Of Dams … Mathematical Model Integrated map of flood risk Integrated risk map by sliding… Geology Soils … Monitoring And Forecasting Impending Events

13. PREVENTION PROGRAM AND DISASTER PREPAREDNESS A case study: EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR THE RISK HYDROGEOLOGICAL RIVER BASIN IN THE NUNEZ JUANA IN SALCEDO.

14. PREVENTION PROGRAM AND DISASTER PREPAREDNESS Visit the Early Warning System for hydrogeological risk of river basin Juana Nunez de Salcedo, Dominican Republic. The objective of the mission on 27 October was to evaluate the current functionality SAT Salcedo, a project implemented by the Italian NGO Movimondo in 2004. The area of ​​ the basin Juana Nunez covered by the project is about 9 square kilometers. With a North - South River runs for 9 miles and save a drop of over 500 meters. Three rainfall stations located in the upper, middle and Salcedo, and a gauging station (located in Salcedo also) feed a mathematical model that estimates, based on the amount of precipitation, if a flood occurs eventually affect a sector of the population (neighborhood of Las Mercedes and El Matadero). The system provides a period of up to an hour to work on the design of an action strategy to danger.

15. PREVENTION PROGRAM AND DISASTER PREPAREDNESS Rainfall station 3 of the SAT Salcedo, managed by Civil Defense. October 2006.

16. PREVENTION PROGRAM AND DISASTER PREPAREDNESS Hydrometric Station # 1's SAT Salcedo, managed by Civil Defense. October 2006.

17. PREVENTION PROGRAM AND DISASTER PREPAREDNESS Neighborhood of Las Mercedes, Salcedo. 2006. In the district has identified several locations where people can go in times when the river level represents a real threat to them.

18. PREVENTION PROGRAM AND DISASTER PREPAREDNESS The Early Warning System for Hydrogeological Risk in Salcedo lessons Learned Potential to be developed Identified weaknesses Institutional strengthening (Civil Defense, COE, ONAMET,...). Interagency information flow in real time Data collection stations is performed manually by volunteers who have no economic incentive. The training was conducted under the project just looked at the management software. The operator (only two people have sufficient knowledge to enter the data into the software) does not know how it was designed and built the mathematical model, therefore, are unable to conduct a review and update. The small population served by the SAT Salcedo. Reduced SAT test period (two years), time in which only warned of a flood easily predictable (Hurricane Jeanne).