1. Child poverty and child well-being in the European Union – determinats, policies, indicators – András Gábos TÁRKI Social Research Institute ECASS Colloquium on methods for cross-national analysis of inequalities and distribution ISER - Colchester, 2nd of February 2010

2. The „Study on child poverty” project Commissioned by: DG Employment of the European Commission, Unit E2 Consortium: Tárki Social Research Institute, Budapest Applica sprl, Brussels Affiliated experts from the U of Essex, Eurocentre (Vienna) Steering Committe: Terry Ward (chair) Applica Michael F. Förster OECD Hugh Frazer National Univ. of Ireland Petra Hoelscher UNICEF Eric Marlier CEPS/INSTEAD Holly Sutherland University of Essex István György Tóth TÁRKI 11 country case studies by Joachim Frick Nada Stropnik Anders Vörk Markus Jäntti Hugh Frazer Jonathan Bradshaw Manos Matsaganis Michel Legros Daniela Del Boca Zsuzsa Blaskó Irena Wóycicka

3. Main tasks carried out within the project Task 1. „An in-depth empirical analysis of child poverty and the related key challenges for each Member State, starting from the analytical framework developed up by the EU Task-Force report.” Task 2. „An assessment of the effectiveness of policies for combating child poverty and promoting social inclusion among children and the identification of policy mixes that seem to be most effective in tackling the specific factors underlying child poverty.” Task 3. „The formulation of recommendations for a limited set of indicators and breakdowns that are most relevant from a child perspective and best reflect the multidimensional nature of child poverty and well-being in the European Union.”

4. The EU policy context of the project  2005: March EU Presidency Conclusions and Luxembourg Presidency initiative on “Taking forward the EU Social Inclusion Process”  2006: Commission’s Communication ‘Towards an EU Strategy on the Rights of the Child, Communication from the Commission’  Since 2006: streamlining of Social OMC, more systematic attention to children and reports and recommendations on tackling child poverty and social exclusion produced under PROGRESS by independent experts and anti-poverty networks  2007: EU Task-Force on Child poverty and Child Well-Being  2008: formal adoption of the report and their incorporation into the EU acquis, National Strategy Reports of child poverty  2009: „Study on child poverty and child well-being”  2010: planned publication of a Commission staff working paper on child poverty.

5. Main parts of the presentation 1. Key determinants and policies tackling child poverty and social exclusion in the EU 2. Indicators of child poverty and child well- being in the EU

6. International benchmarking and key challenges for each Member State To assess the performance of countries in the field of child poverty relative to the national average/adult population the EU-average Following the EU Task-Force (2008) methodology Four dimesions: 1 on outcome side and 3 on determinant side Child poverty risk outcomes Joblessness In-work poverty Impact of social transfers

7. Child poverty outcomes Input indicators: at-risk-of-poverty rate relative median poverty gap z-scores based on the difference between the national figure for children and the overall national figure the difference between the national figure for children and the EU average for children (for the rate only) z-scores added together, without weighting Six clusters to maximise the “steps” between the groups to minimise the variations within the groups +++ highest performance - - - lowest performance

8. Joblessness Input indicators: share of children in jobless hhs based on EU-LFS z-scores based on the difference between the national figure for children and the overall national figure the difference between the national figure for children and the EU average for children

9. In-work poverty Input indicators: in-work poverty: at-risk- of-poverty rate for those living in hhs with WI>=0.50, based on EU- SILC z-scores based on the difference between the national figure for children and the overall national figure the difference between the national figure for children and the EU average for children

10. The new measure of work intensity WI – measuring the LM attachment of the household ftem i – nr of months in full-time employment ptem i – nr of months in full-time employment unem i – nr of months in unemployment stm i - nr of months studying rm i – nr of months in retirement inacm i – nr of months in inactivity of each hh member in the last 12-month income period EUROSTAT 0.00 0.01-0.49 0.50-0.99 1.0 APPLICA 0.00 0.01-0.49 0.50 0.51-0.99 1.0

11. Sensitivity of risk of poverty rate to alternative measures of low work intensity Source: own calculations based on EU-SILC 2007. Note. BG, MT and RO are not included. The variation of the risk of poverty of children by the detailed WI measure, EU, 2007 (%) The shift is near WI=0.33 Largest: DK, SE, NL, IE, UK, HU Smallest: BE, FR, PT

12. Impact of social transfers Input indicators: poverty reduction effect of social tranfers (excl. pensions), based on EU-SILC z-scores based on the difference between the national figure for children and the EU average for children EUROMOD as an alternative source for assessing the effectiveness of the tax- benefit system

13. Relative outcomes of countries related to child poverty risk and main determinants Group A: good performers in all dimensions Child poverty risk outcomesJoblessness In-work poverty Impact of social transfers Group A FI+ + + + + + + CY+ + ++ – DK+ + + ++ SI+ + + ++ SE+ + + + FR+ + NL++++ AT++ +

14. Determinants and policies in place in Group A countries High levels of economic activity and employment generally – high share of dual earner families in most countries The Netherlands: the second earner being in part-time job is predominant Austria: the single earner model is dominant, high earnings and income support compensating for the lack of a second earner; the model featuring one full-time earner and a part-time earner is also considerable Extensive and affordable childcare provision Cyprus: informal childcare arrangements Adequate income support DK, SE, FI: high level of universal income support and extensive support for parents to enter/re-enter employment Slovenia: high level of support targeted on low-income families in SI Income support narrowly targeted, focus on maternity benefits in France

15. Relative outcomes of countries related to child poverty risk and main determinants Child poverty risk outcomesJoblessness In-work poverty Impact of social transfers Group B DE+ –+ + ++ BE+–+ + ++ SK––+– EE––+– CZ––+ + IE–– + + HU–– ++ UK–– – –++ Group B: joblessness is key challenge

16. Determinants and policies in place in Group B countries Large number of children living with lone parents (BE, DE, EE, IE, UK) But in HU: 2 parents 3+ children are affceted by worklessness Children with migrant background are at high risk and count for a large share of those at risk of poverty in most of these countries Relatively effective income support in reducing child poverty, but in some cases the benefits prove disincentives to LM participation (and further may have severe negative long-term consequences) Inadequate childcare provision – limited in number of place, opening hours and affordability Low level of support to help women with children into employment Inflexible working hours

17. Relative outcomes of countries related to child poverty risk and main determinants Child poverty risk outcomesJoblessness In-work poverty Impact of social transfers Group C LV–––– LT– –– Group D PT–+–– LU–+ + +– – EL– + + +– – – – PL– – –+– – ES– +– – – IT– – –+ – – –– Group C: relatively bad performance in all dimensions Group D: in-work poverty is key challenge

18. Determinants and policies in place in Group D countries Employment rates low generally and support policies limited; fixed term jobs common (exc. IT) Low activity of mothers (exc. PT, LU), low levels of part-time empl. (excl. LU)  one earner households are predominant Lack of childcare provision Relatively high share of children with self-employed parents (mostly in agriculture): EL, IT, PL Low earnings No minimum wages in EL or IT and set at low level in PL Low levels of income support Support narrowly targeted – in PL on very poorest or lone parents (6% of children), in EL on large families (10%)

19. Determinants and policies in place in the New Member States NMSs can be found in all four clusters Low earnings Low employment rates Low levels of non-standard forms of emplyoment Low level of support to help women with children into employment Inadequate childcare provision – limited in number of place, opening hours and affordability (most countries) Low income support, only HU spends above EU-average in terms of family benefits as % of GDP Some countries widely use means test (CZ, PL, SI), while others rely more on universal benefits or use categorical targeting

20. Indicators of child poverty and child well- being in the EU István György Tóth – András Gábos with contributions from the TÁRKI and Applica team, Orsolya Lelkes (Eurocentre, Vienna)

21. Domains of child poverty and well-being (according to the EU Task-Force report) A. Material well-being: factors relating to the material resources of the household that the child has access to or lacks during his/her development, which include indicators of (A1) income, (A2) material deprivation, (A3) housing, (A4) labour market attachment. B. Non-material dimensions of child well-being, which may reflect on both the resources a child has access or lacks during his/her development and outcomes in different stages of this development: (B1) education, (B2) health, (B3) exposure to risk and risk behaviour, (B4) social participation and relationships, family environment, (B5) local environment.

22. Supporting multi-dimensional and multi- sectoral policy mixes  Distinctions between resource based measures of the risk of child poverty (like income poverty and material or housing deprivation) and forward-looking indicators of child outcomes (like education and health status)  To reflect the policy need of breaking the intergenerational transmission of poverty, life cycle and poverty persistence are important aspects  Children: 0-17 (broad) age group. However, internal age breakdowns are necessitated by mixture of theoretical (developmental, child psychology) and practical considerations (related to institutional arrangements or to data availability)  Special attention to be paid to migrant status or belonging to an ethnic minority

23.  a broad based collection of potentially relevant indicators in each dimension  work on indicator development (customising the selection criteria)  suggestions for breakdowns wherever possible  to fill out an indicator fiche for each and every indicators (example )  statistical validation of all material indicators (where data allows)  identifying data gaps  formulating suggestions In search of additional indicators: tasks completed within the project

24. A1.1a At-risk-of-poverty rate by age of child, 2007 Robustness problems with the detail of the breakdown Sample indicator charts with some tipical data problems

25. B4.5a 11-year-olds who have three or more close friends of the same gender Very low cross-country variance Sample indicator charts with some tipical data problems

26. B1.2a Difference in average reading literacy between pupils whose parents have completed tertiary education and pupils whose parents have lower secondary education or below (PIRLS 2006) Good quality indicator, with some data gaps Sample indicator charts with some tipical data problems

27. B2.6 Breastfeeding, EU-27, proportion of children who were exclusively breastfed at various ages Serious data gaps for many countries Sample indicator charts with some tipical data problems

28. 1. Various phases of childhood need to be reflected, therefore … filling in the “reserved slot” for child well-being is neither feasible nor desirable with only one or two well-being indicators 2. A slot for one or a set of child well-being indicators can be filled with an unbalanced set to cover currently inadequately covered in the social OMC 3. There is a need for a comprehensive set of indicators to monitor child poverty and well-being Main conclusions

29. There is a need for a comprehensive set of indicators to monitor child poverty and well-being The new set could:  reflect most of the child well-being dimensions as set out in the EU Task-Force report  incorporate OMC indicators already having a 0-17 age breakdown  include a few new material well-being indicators (educational deprivation and childcare)  include new breakdowns for the already existing indicators  a whole range of non-material indicators

30. Child age groups Dimension0-5 (0-2, 3-5)6-1112-17 A1: IncomePoverty rate Relative median poverty risk gap Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate Dispersion around the poverty threshold A2: Material deprivationPrimary deprivation Educational deprivation Primary deprivation Educational deprivation Secondary deprivation A3: HousingHousing costs Overcrowding Housing costs Overcrowding Housing costs Overcrowding A4: Labour market attachmentLiving in low work intensity (including jobless) households Child care Living in low work intensity (including jobless) households Child care Living in low work intensity (including jobless) households B1: EducationParticipation in pre-primary education ( Low) Reading literacy performance of pupils aged 10 (Low) Reading literacy performance of pupils aged 15 Early school-leavers (when 18- 24) B2: HealthInfant mortality (by SES) Perinatal mortality Vaccination Low birth weight Breastfeeding Overweight Fruit daily Breakfast every school day Self-perceived general health Physical activity Life expectancy at birth (by SES) B3: Exposure to risk and risk behaviour Teenage births Smoking Alcohol consumption Drug consumption B4: Social participation and relationships, family environment Share in single parent households B5: Local environmentCrime in the area is a problem Pollution or dirt is a problem in the area

31.  Context information is needed on child and family related social expenditures, within the OMC reporting routines  Further work on statistical validation necessitates opening up microdata access to some core datasets on non-material dimensions  Incentives to support substitute or alternative datasets in national contexts is needed Conclusions (4-6): There is a need to develop data infrastructure

32.  … to monitor the social situation of the children of - migrants - Roma  … to further investigate the potential for utilising national administrative datasets  … to invest in panel surveys (national or EU level) to facilitate exploring causal relationships  … to involve researchers in questionnaire development Conclusions (7-11): Further attempts to improve data situation are needed …

33. Final report will be available soon at: www.tarki.hu