1. Demographic Transition Model

3. What is the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)?
The demographic transition model explains the transformation of countries from having high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates.
In developed countries this transition began in the 18th century and continues today.
Less developed countries began the transition later and many are still in earlier stages of the model.

4. Stage One
Birth Rate and Death rate are both high. Population growth is slow and fluctuating.
Birth Rate is high because of:
Lack of family planning
High Infant Mortality Rate: putting babies in the 'bank'
Need for workers in agriculture
Religious beliefs
Children as economic assets
Death Rate is high because of:
High levels of disease
Famine
Lack of clean water and sanitation
Lack of health care
War
Competition for food from predators such as rats
Lack of education
Typical of Britain in the 18th century and the Least Economically Developed Countries (LEDC's) today.

5. (Demographic Transition Model)
Model 1: The DTM
(Demographic Transition Model)
Stage A / 1
Both high birth rates and death rates fluctuate in the first stage of the population model giving a small population growth (shown by the small total population graph).

6. Typical of Britain in 19th century; Bangladesh; Nigeria
Stage Two
Birth Rate remains high. Death Rate is falling. Population begins to rise steadily.
Death Rate is falling as a result of:
Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine)
Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking boiled)
Improved sanitation
Improved food production and storage
Improved transport for food
Decreased Infant Mortality Rates
Typical of Britain in 19th century; Bangladesh; Nigeria

7. (Demographic Transition Model)
Model 1: The DTM
(Demographic Transition Model)
Stage B / 2
Birth rates remain high, but death rates fall rapidly causing a high population growth (as shown by the total population graph).

8. Stage 2
Kenya

9. Typical of Britain in late 19th and early 20th century;
Stage Three
Birth Rate starts to fall. Death Rate continues to fall. Population rising.
Reasons behind birth and death rate falling:
Family planning available
Lower Infant Mortality Rate
Increased mechanization reduces need for workers
Increased standard of living
Changing status of women
Typical of Britain in late 19th and early 20th century;
China; Brazil

10. Stage 3
Brazil

11. (Demographic Transition Model)
Model 1: The DTM
(Demographic Transition Model)
Stage C / 3
Birth rates now fall rapidly while death rates continue to fall. The total population begins to peak and the population increase slows to a constant.

12. Typical of USA; Sweden; Japan; Britain
Stage Four
Birth Rate is low.
Death Rate is low.
Population steady.
Typical of USA; Sweden; Japan; Britain

13. Stage 4 UK

14. (Demographic Transition Model)
Model 1: The DTM
(Demographic Transition Model)
Stage D / 4
Both birth rates and death rates remain low, fluctuating with 'baby booms' and epidemics of illnesses and disease. This results in a steady population.

15. Stage Five Typical of Germany Birth Rate slight fall.
Death Rate stable.
Natural increase: gentle decrease
Reasons for changes in birth rate:
Family planning
Better health
Later marriages
Improved status of women
Reasons for changes in death rate:
Good health care
Reliable food supply
People are generally living longer

16. Germany
Stage 5

17. (Demographic Transition Model)
Model 1: The DTM
(Demographic Transition Model)
Stage E / 5?
A stage 5 was not originally thought of as part of the DTM, but some western countries are now reaching the stage where total population is declining where birth rates have dropped below death rates.

18. (Population Pyramid Model)
Model 2: The PPM
(Population Pyramid Model)
The PPM - 'Population Pyramid Model' shows how dynamic (subject to change) population is. The model is structured to show 'snapshots' of a population at four points during its development, which are shown as Stages (A - D). A country will progress through the stages.

19. What are the limitations?
What limitations do you think there could be with the model?
It does not include the influences of migration
It assumes that all countries will go through the same pattern
There is no time scale
Reasons for birth rates and death rates are very different in different countries

20. Homework Complete the worksheet.
Most questions can be completed on the worksheet – others need to be written on lined paper.