1. Paris 09-17-2007 Export performance indicators and the international growth of re-exports Martin Mellens OECD International Trade Statistics experts meeting September 17

2. Paris 09-17-2007 Outline What is the international trend in re-exports? What is the impact on market performance? What are the consequences?

3. Paris 09-17-2007 International trend: method Is soaring re-export growth a Dutch phenomenon? Method ► Input-output tables of Eurostat ► Literature search ► Internetsites statistical agencies (e.g. Hong Kong) More data on re-exports than expected, but... ► What are the price movements? ► Are these data really measure the same thing?

4. Paris 09-17-2007 International trend: results Domestically produced exports in 2000 Re-exports in 2000 Re-export growth 96-00 bln euro/dollar % Belgium1035011 Denmark36912 Germany4679117 Finland47239 France20691- Sweden8529 Hong Kong231786 Singapore1361028

5. Paris 09-17-2007 Re-exports and world trade: problem setting International growth re-exports World trade based on import statistics Re-exported goods registered as imports in (at least) two countries  World trade growth is ‘inflated' compared to the production of exported goods  World trade growth a biased indicator of market growth for domestic exports

6. Exports performance Market performance Total exports Re-exports Domestically produced exports Relevant world trade Relevant world trade corrected for re-exports ‘Inflation'- effect Mix- effect

7. Paris 09-17-2007 Quantifying inflation effect Import growth excluding increase re-exports Assumptions needed ► Share re-exports in imports ► Re-export growth (relative to import growth) ► Price movements re-exports (relative to imports) Low estimate  No re-exports unobserved countries High estimate  Re-exports unobserved countries share 15%, growth 5%, price -1%

8. Paris 09-17-2007 Dutch relevant world trade excluding package and inflation effect

9. Paris 09-17-2007 What are the consequences? (1) Re-export growth is an international trend With impact on world trade Inhibiting interpretation traditional performance indicators of exports Dutch market performance underestimated Size of effects significant ► 1996 - 2000: mix effect 0,8%-point, inflation effect 0,6%-point to 1,4%-point

10. Paris 09-17-2007 What are the consequences? (2) Effect on market performance other countries unknown ► probably smaller than in the Netherlands As traditional performance indicators become more and more obsolete... Comparison market performance across countries is more difficult  Vast data collection effort is needed