1. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNITAGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT Kyoto Protocol enters into force on Feb 16, 2005 Countries celebrating 40 140 countries have ratified USA and Australia not yet China, India and Brazil exempted Nepal wins US $ 25 millions

2. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNITAGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT

5. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNITAGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON FOOD SECURITY OF NEPAL By: Kishore Sherchan (A scenario based analysis)

6. Area, production and yield Rice: Wheat: Maize: Potato:

7. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNITAGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT Climate Change Impact

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9. Impact of cold wave on winter crop yields in the Terai of Nepal, 1997/98. YearPotatoToriaSarsonRayoLentilChick pea 1987/88 5391320 1988/89 703563728 1989/9025.54 503844819709 1990/9119.72570 912 1991/9222.28949 1992/9317.36 1993/9422.13712785601 1044 1994/9523.76718524548 1995/9617.21760636565 1996/9722.63815803887959922 Mean21.33747569733807999 1997/9815.39474505513504619 % Reduction27.836.511.230.037.638.0

10. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNITAGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT Methodology:  Model  DSSAT Ver. 3.5  EXCEL  ARCVIEW  Data  Average of 10 to 30 years of daily weather data (Tmax, Tmin, Srad and Rain) from 30-40 locations.  Soil data of Nepal available from LRMP 1986 and NARC.  Crop management data from NARC  Agricultural statistics from MOAC and CBS.

11. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNITAGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT  Zoning (3 x 5)  Three agro-ecological zonings (Terai, Hill and Mountain).  Five development regions.  Climate Scenario (9)  Ambient  2CO2 : 580ppm  Temperature : 580ppm + 1 o C, +2 o C, +4 o C  Rain : + 20%  Crop yield : Actual and Potential

12. Model Structure AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNITAGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT OVERVIEW SUMMARYGROWTH CARBONWATERNITROGEN PHOSPHOR PESTECONOMICS

13. AGRO-ECOLOGICAL ZONING OF NEPAL

17. Rice:

23. Wheat:

29. Maize:

35. Rainfall Variability and Yield RiceWheat

36. Rice Wheat

37. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNITAGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT Socio-Economics

38. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNITAGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT Scenario 1.Normal (Business as usual) 2.APP 3.Climate change (by 2075)

39. IndicatorsProjection by year 2001201020202030205020602075 Population23155279693355039685542056264276611 Food production (‘000 t)  Normal scenario 8839100651164513491181802114826602  APP scenario 88391299718486----  Climatic change scenario 8839100461159613399179412079125986 Edible food availability('000t)  Normal scenario 5802665777669069124091454018484  APP scenario 5802858412335----  Climatic change scenario 5802664077228986121941422117937

40. 2001201020202030205020602075 Per capita food availability (K-calorie/day)  Normal scenario 2369225021882160216421942275  APP scenario 236929013475----  Climatic change scenario 2369224421762140212621462207 Per capita calorie reqd. (K-calorie/day) 2130 Food sufficiency (%)  Normal scenario 111106103101102103107  APP scenario 111136163----  Climatic change scenario 11110510210099 102

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43. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNITAGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT Impact of GHGs on Agriculture 1.With doubling of CO 2, productivity of C 3 crops particularly rice, soybean, millets and tropical C 3 grasses will likely to increase with adoption of more heat tolerant varieties. 2.Simultaneous increase of temperature as a result of doubling of CO 2, temperate crops such as wheat, barley, potato, lentil, mustard and temperate grasses will likely to be adversely affected and may need effective adaptation measures.

44. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNITAGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT 3.With the increase of CO 2, productivity of C 4 crops like maize, sugarcane, sorghum and C 4 tropical grasses will be little increased but temperature will have more negative and rainfall will have variable effects. 4.Climate change will have impact on the extinction of biodiversity species and shift in habitat is likely to occur. 5.With the uniform rise of rainfall will have positive impact on overall agriculture but skewed rise (extreme event) will have negative impact on soil nutrient loss due to flood damage and erosion, and will have negative impact on overall agriculture.

45. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNITAGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT 6.With the increased use of chemical fertilizer, N 2 O emission will likely to increase. 7. If APP target is achieved, there will be significant surplus of food production. There will be marginal surplus under normal scenario. Food production will barely meet under climate change scenario.

46. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNITAGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT Adaptation Strategies 1.Resource conservation Soil management through such as minimum tillage in the rice-wheat system should be developed. Surface seeding and bed planting in the rice can reduce carbon and water loss (by 10-25 %) as well as the cost of production and thus save large amount of carbon emissions. 2.Development of genetically adaptive varieties Breeding strategies that can incorporate stress attributes such as heat and drought stresses should be adopted. Rice and wheat varieties that can do better under rainfed and heat stress condition would reverse the effect of the process of global warming.

47. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNITAGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT 3.Hybrid crop program Model prediction has indicated that there will be a severe negative effect on maize yield. For instance, hybrid maize that can improve yield at least by 50% will upset the negative effect of climate change. 4.Crop diversification program Crop diversification including multiple and mixed cropping system should be promoted. This will give better insurance to avert the risk of crop failure and diversify income sources and conserve natural resources. e.g. horticultural plantation and other cash crops.

48. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNITAGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT 5.Manage the methane emission from rice field Rice is the most important crop. Minimizing methane nitrous oxide emission in rice field through efficient use of fertilizer such as sulfur coated urea, slow release fertilizer and with alternate flooding drying and rainfed rice culture would help to reduce the methane emission. 6. Manage the livestock production Improving ruminant's digestion through better feeding to minimize methane emission from the livestock. This also demands the discarding of unproductive livestock population.In the highland strategic breeding program between yak and cow should be adopted which will have better adaptation to global warming.

49. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNITAGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT 7. Promotion of biogas as a source Biogas has been considered an efficient alternative technology for the rural area to supplement the energy and for environment protection. In overall the biogas is a save technology to replace fuel wood and mitigate the global warming. This should be promoted at the rural level. 8. Institutional strengthening Given the topographical variation, climatic zoning should be demarcated and adaptation strategy should be applied. There should be a coordinated effort to the refinement of climatological analysis and implementation of early warning weather prediction system. A strong base on the climatic variability and agriculture should be built in the FYP.

50. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNITAGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT Conclusion 1.Doubling of CO 2 will have more of positive impact on major crops but adversely affected by the simultaneous rise of temperature particularly in the warmer environment and C 4 crops. 2.Mountain environment is more favourable than the tropical flat lands to reverse the impact of climate change, but subject to very much micro-climatic condition due to varied topography. Tropical crops likely to move upwards due to likely increase in global temperature.

51. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNITAGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT 3. Present level of marginal surplus will continue to decline and the country may face difficulties to attain agriculture sufficiency. 4.Technological innovation will be required to bridge the productivity gap between the actual and the potential. Use of adaptive crop varieties, improved seeds including hybrids, Efficient use of fertilizer and irrigation and crop diversification will reverse the likely impact of climate change.

52. AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNITAGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT Thank You Rising CO 2 Experiment on Rice and Wheat at NARC