1. Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation City-level links through Risk Management Rosanna Nitti Sr. Urban Specialist Regional Coordinator for Disaster Risk Management Middle East and North Africa Region The World Bank Climate Change and Urban Sustainable Growth Milan, July 10, 2008

2. Definition of Disaster Risk Management Risk Management as a tool applied in the design/selection of strategies for coping with areas of uncertainty, in this case natural hazards and/or climate change First step towards Risk Management is knowledge of the specific risk: Risk Assessment The Risk Assessment evaluates the degree of exposure and vulnerability to a given event The subsequent Risk Management Strategy is eventually based on human choice and factors like society’s determination of what constitute acceptable risk, value attached to certain resources, willingness and capacity to pay for coverage against a particular risk, etc.

3. Disaster Risk and Climate Change Events of hydromet. origin constitute the large majority of disasters Climate Change exacerbates the outcome of hydrometeorological disasters (e.g. increased intensity of floods and droughts, stronger hurricanes, more frequent cyclones, etc.), increasing the levels of disaster risk; CC can add new disaster risks (e.g. 30cm snow precipitation in Amman, heat waves in London) to be managed

4. Increasing Hazard Risk Intensity Frequency Heatwaves Heavy rainfall / Floods Tropical cyclones Coastal marine hazards Stronger winds Hazards

5. DRM to include Climate Change Adaptations While DRM includes earthquakes/volcanoes and CC also addresses gradual average changes in Climate, DRM and CC adaptation greatly overlap and can strategically reinforce each other. Risk Management approach as unifying framework to link DRM and CCA with the common aim to preserve development gains. Disasters as a risk integral to development rather than an interruption in development or an “act of God” (WB IEG report on Managing Climate Risk). Objective (HFA 2005-2015): promote the integration of risk reduction associated with existing climate variability and future climate change into strategies for reduction of disaster risk and adaptation to climate change.

6. Combined Disaster and Climate Change Risk Assessment Hazard Frequency Magnitude Area Climate change Exposure Structures People Economy Vulnerability Main factors (context specific) Climate change Risk Probabilistic analysis Loss exceedance curves and annualized losses (country/region/sector) Scenarios Informed knowledge of potential impact on Development Climate change as additional risk Risk Management Strategy Disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation priorities and measures + + Adapted from presentation by John Harding, UNISDR

7. The “Here and Now” dimension For a local decision-maker, or a slum dweller, a flood is a loss of investments: independently from its origin, immediate action is needed Through the Risk Management Approach the focus is on the priorities of the “here and now”, while trying to anticipate future climate changes and develop new coping mechanisms Past experience in DRM has demonstrated that this is a strategic entry point to mainstream risk management into development and long term economic planning, particularly when competing for scarce resources, basic development needs and short-term political mandates.

8. MENA Snapshot (source: EM-DAT) MENA = Middle East and North Africa

9. MENA Snapshot 8 countries in MENA region with between 30-70% of GDP and people in areas at risk to two or more natural hazards: Algeria, Iran, Tunisia, Morocco, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Djibouti. Yemen, not included in the report, is also highly exposed. (WB-Columbia Univ. Global Hotspots Study). Regionally, meteorological disasters cause 80% of the losses. Droughts, floods, landslides, cyclones, and sandstorms are the most prominent individual meteorological hazards in MENA region Highly urbanized region: of about 300mil pop, 56% live in cities, and 63mil in cities with population of above 1mil. Urbanization (2.6% per year 1990-2004) and urbanization of poverty, population growth, water-scarcity (30-50% drop of water availability for a 2-3 degree of temp. increase) are key features of MENA region Overall increase in temperature (expected to be 2 degrees in the next 15-20 years) will result in changes in pattern of precipitation, increased intensity and frequency of draughts and floods, and periodic heat waves with direct repercussions on urban life. Mal-adaptation—an increasing exposure to extreme events as a result of investments and settlement in hazardous locations (instead of improving the capacity to withstand the extremes of a changing climate, many development efforts may well be contributing to a rise in vulnerability)

10. Joint DRM-CCA initiatives in MENA Urban Urgent need to bring DRM and CCA high on the urban agenda of governments in MENA (local and central), need to create awareness and knowledge of combined risks. Integrated Disaster and Climate Change Risk Assessments: Sana’a (flash floods), Djibouti Ville (sea level rise and floods); Develop Regional Partnerships, Awareness and Methodologies for integrated Risk Assessments: Urban session for Mayors in Regional conference in Sana’s (October 2008), technical workshops for local stakeholders; Regional studies in collaboration with the Climate Change Beam: “Adaptation to Climate Change in the Coastal Cities of North Africa” Opportunistic approach: working at sector level (upcoming Sfax water allocation strategy), piggy-back on ongoing City Development Strategy processes (Jordan, Lebanon, Yemen)

11. The road ahead Strategic use of Grant funds from the GFDRR; Leveraging additional resources; Foster International Partnerships and exchanges of experiences

12. Conclusions Adaptation cannot be implemented efficiently by itself or as a strictly environmental issue; New common Risk-Management based methodologies for Disasters and Climate Change (including for integrated risk assessments) are needed; Existing DRM systems to be strengthened by including the CC variable and incorporating comprehensive risk management into development planning, programs and sector projects; Awareness raising and institutional development to be supported by simple risk assessment tools and economic analysis to evaluate and promote risk management options; Tailor technical information to the end users and integrate it into planning processes (e.g. the City Primer as a tool).

13. Thank You! Links: http://gfdrr.org http://www.unisdr-wana.org