1. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use1 A Sample Presentation of The State of the Church in Tennessee and the Nashville, Memphis and Knoxville Metro Areas 1990-2000 Dave Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org

2. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use2 The first 19 slides are from the “State of the Church in Tennessee” Powerpoint. The Complete Powerpoint is 43 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UIA20.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UIA20.htm

3. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use3 In 1996, polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation in activities that create acceptability within their social group. For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have reported that around 45% of Americans attend church every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual attendance counts have shown that the percentage of people attending church on any given weekend is much lower than was previously thought.

4. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use4 The Intent of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two key questions: “How Many People Really Attend Church in Tennessee Every Week?” “Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or Backwards in Influence in Tennessee?” As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Tennessee will begin to take shape.

5. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use5 This study uses weekend church attendance as a more reliable and more immediate snapshot of Christian influence than membership. The following map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. Tennessee has an average church attendance percentage (23.5%) much higher than the national average (18.7%).

6. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use6

7. 7 The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in Tennessee.

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9. 9 The Next 2 Maps show the population numbers for each county in Tennessee. The first map shows the population of each county. The second map shows the growth or decline in population for each county from 1990 - 2000.

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12. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use12 The Next 2 Slides show the ethnicity of Tennessee in 1990 and 2000. The third slide shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group.

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16. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use16 The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in Tennessee in 1990 and 2000. All groups have grown numerically over the last decade. However, as attendance grew, population also grew. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph. This graph reflects a significant decrease in the percentage of the population attending church, with the exception of Catholic churches.

17. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use17

18. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use18

19. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use19 The Next Graph is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the population at churches in each category in 2000. The “Absent” category indicates the percentage of the population that is not worshipping at a Christian church on any given weekend. The second graph shows the percentage gain or decline for each category in Tennessee in 1990 and 2000.

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21. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use21

22. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use22 The 2 Next Charts show the relative strength of the 8 major denominational groups in Tennessee. The first chart illustrates the dominant influence of the Baptist church. The second chart shows change in the percentage of the population attending churches by denomination over the last decade.

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25. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use25 The Complete Tennessee Powerpoint is 42 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UTN20.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UTN20.htm

26. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use26 The next 10 slides are from the “State of the Church in Nashville” Powerpoint. The Complete Powerpoint is 45 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/DesMoines.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/DesMoines.htm

27. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use27 The Next Map shows the attendance numbers for the churches in the Nashville Metro Area in 1990 and 2000. There has been numerical growth for Evangelical, Mainline and Catholic churches. Unfortunately, as worship attendance has grown, the population has grown rapidly. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph.

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29. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use29

30. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use30 The Next Chart shows the 1990 & 2000 average church attendance by group for both the Nashville MSA and the nation. Average church attendance for the Nashville MSA is similar to that of the whole nation. The second chart shows the 1990 & 2000 number of churches per 100,000 people in the Nashville MSA and the nation. The Nashville MSA has more Christian churches per 100,000 people than the national average.

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32. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use32

33. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use33 The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county. The Nashville MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) includes the counties of Cheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Robertson, Rutherford, Sumner, Williamson and Wilson.

34. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use34 Nashville MSA 2000 Christian Church Attendance as a Percentage of Population 2000 Beige = Highest Rose = Middle Blue = Lowest 19.5% Rutherford 21.5% Wilson 23.0% Robertson 23.9% Dickson 19.8% Sumner 28.9% Davidson 16.5% Cheatham 27.2% Williamson

35. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use35 The Next Map shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for each county. One county grew in attendance percentage, while 7 counties declined.

36. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use36 Nashville MSA 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in Percentage of the Population at Worship in All Christian Churches on a Given Weekend Blue = Decline Rose = Increase -6.3% Rutherford -11.3% Wilson -3.4% Robertson -5.3% Dickson -15.7% Sumner -4.9% Davidson -28.2% Cheatham 3.8% Williamson

37. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use37 The Complete Nashville Powerpoint is 45 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Nashville.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Nashville.htm

38. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use38 The next 12 slides are from the “State of the Church in Memphis” Powerpoint. The Complete Powerpoint is 45 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Memphis.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Memphis.htm

39. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use39 The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county. The Memphis MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) includes the counties of Fayette, Shelby, Tipton, De Soto (MS) and Crittenden (AR).

40. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use40 Memphis MSA 2000 Christian Church Attendance as a Percentage of Population 2000 Beige = Highest Rose = Middle Blue = Lowest 17.0% Fayette 19.3% Tipton 25.9% Shelby 23.2% Crittenden 21.5% De Soto

41. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use41 The Next 2 Slides show the ethnicity of the Memphis MSA in 1990 and 2000. The third slide shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group.

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44. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use44 The Next Map shows the attendance numbers for the churches in the Memphis Metro Area in 1990 and 2000. There has been numerical growth for Evangelical and Catholic churches and decline for Mainline churches. Unfortunately, as worship attendance has grown, the population has also grown. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph.

45. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use45

46. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use46

47. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use47 The Next 3 Maps show the growth or decline of attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in the Memphis MSA between 1990 and 2000. For evangelicals, one county grew in attendance percentage, while 4 counties declined. For mainline churches, no county grew in attendance percentage, while 5 counties declined. For Catholics, 3 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 2 counties declined.

48. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use48 Memphis MSA 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in Percentage of the Population at Worship in All Evangelical Churches on a Given Weekend Blue = Decline Rose = Increase -21.1% Fayette -16.1% Tipton -8.7% Shelby 8.3% Crittenden -1.8% De Soto

49. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use49 Memphis MSA 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in Percentage of the Population at Worship in All Mainline Churches on a Given Weekend Blue = Decline Rose = Increase -3.4% Fayette -20.9% Tipton -14.5% Shelby -18.2% Crittenden -16.9% De Soto

50. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use50 Memphis MSA 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in Percentage of the Population at Worship in All Catholic Churches on a Given Weekend Blue = Decline Rose = Increase 12.2% Fayette 54.3% Tipton -2.4% Shelby -60.9% Crittenden 33.1% De Soto

51. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use51 The Complete Memphis Powerpoint is 45 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Memphis.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information.

52. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use52 The next 9 slides are from the “State of the Church in Knoxville” Powerpoint. The Complete Powerpoint is 45 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Knoxville.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Knoxville.htm

53. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use53 The Next Map shows the attendance numbers for the churches in the Knoxville Metro Area in 1990 and 2000. There has been numerical growth for Evangelical, Mainline and Catholic churches. Unfortunately, as worship attendance has grown, the population has grown rapidly. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph.

54. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use54

55. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use55

56. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use56 The Next Graph is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the population at churches in each category in 2000. The “Absent” category indicates the percentage of the population that is not worshipping at a Christian church on any given weekend. The second graph shows the percentage gain or decline for each category in the Knoxville MSA from 1990 to 2000.

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58. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use58

59. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use59 The Next 3 Maps show the attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in the Knoxville MSA in 2000.

60. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use60 Knoxville MSA 2000 Evangelical Church Attendance as a Percentage of Population 2000 Beige = Highest Rose = Middle Blue = Lowest 16.7% Anderson 8.8% Union 18.4% Loudon 16.6% Blount 15.7% Sevier 20.6% Knox

61. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use61 Knoxville MSA 2000 Mainline Church Attendance as a Percentage of Population 2000 Beige = Highest Rose = Middle Blue = Lowest 3.8% Anderson 0.4% Union 4.3% Loudon 4.2% Blount 2.6% Sevier 4.7% Knox

62. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use62 Knoxville MSA 2000 Catholic Church Attendance as a Percentage of Population 2000 Beige = Highest Rose = Middle Blue = Lowest 2.4% Anderson Union 0.8% Loudon 0.8% Blount 1.1% Sevier 2.0% Knox

63. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use63 The Final Chart shows the net gain in the number of churches in the Knoxville MSA in the past decade. There was a net gain of 5 churches. A net gain of 199 churches was needed to keep up with population growth in the Knoxville metro area from 1990 - 2000.

64. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use64

65. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use65 The Complete Knoxville Powerpoint is 45 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Knoxville.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Knoxville.htm

66. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use66 This Presentation is based on a nationwide study of American church attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 10 years for over 200,000 individual churches. It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for over 300,000 orthodox Christian churches. 1 1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.

67. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use67 For More Information... Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for additional information on the American Church.www.theamericanchurch.org 12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/ 12supm. htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/ 12supm. htm The complete Tennessee Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UTN20.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UTN20.htm The Complete Nashville Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Nashville.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Nashville.htm The Complete Memphis Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Memphis.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Memphis.htm The Complete Knoxville Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Knoxville.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Knoxville.htm A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Tennessee and the Nashville, Memphis and Knoxville Powerpoints) is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/TN0.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/TN0.htm