1. Prof. Rachel J.C. Chen, Ph.D. University of Tennessee, Knoxville, USA Senior Visiting Researcher, Centre for Regional and Tourism Research, Bornholm, Denmark Peter Billing, Ph.D. Director Centre for Regional and Tourism Research, Bornholm, Denmark Development of an Island Tourism Multi-Dimensional Model (ITMDM) for Islands Regions in Europe Development of an Island Tourism Multi-Dimensional Model (ITMDM) for Islands Regions in Europe

2. Islands Regions of Europe – Facing the Challenges of Territorial Cohesion The Structural Funds – Post 2006 Conference on Peripheral and Maritime Regions The Island Commission EU and the Policy of Regional Development – ERDF Constitutional Reform – Economic, Social and Territorial Cohesion Rachel J.C. Chen & Peter Billing CENTRE FOR REGIONAL AND TOURISM RESEARCH, DENMARK THE EU DEFINITION OF AN ISLAND An island is a territory surrounded by water: 1. inhabited by more than 50 permanent people, 2. not permanently linked to the mainland 3. distanance by at least 1 Km from the mainland, 4. with no capital of an EU member state www.cpmr.org www.eurisles.org

3. PROJECT PART-FINANCED BY THE EUROPEAN UNION GEDERI (Gestión et Development des Regiones des Isles) Manageent and Development of Island Regions (2004-2007) Project Owner CPMR / Island Commission Eurisles (Corse) Purpose To use the regional " know how " structures, in each island region in order to provide a better foundation for strategy and policy to the insular political and administrative actors. The participating islands will be studied and offered good practices analysis through the exchange of experiences, problems and themes linked to island development and management. www.gederi.org Rachel J.C. Chen & Peter Billing CENTRE FOR REGIONAL AND TOURISM RESEARCH, DENMARK

4. LEAD PARTNER Corse (Fr) PARTNERS Baleares (Sp) Bornholm (Da) Crete (Gr) Gotland (Sv) Gozo (Malta) Ionia Nissia (Gr) Sardegna (It) Sicily (It) Western Isles (GB) Åland (Fi) Rachel J.C. Chen & Peter Billing CENTRE FOR REGIONAL AND TOURISM RESEARCH, DENMARK THEMES AND SUB-THEMES 1. Accessibility 2. Sustainable Tourism 3. Depopulation 4. Labor market training and supply 5. Marketing of local products 6. Natural and environmental risks 7. Towards and integrated strategy

5. Theme 2 TOURISM DEVELOPMENT IN THE ISLANDS REGIONS Lead Partner Centre for Tourism & Regional Research, Bornholm International Experts Rachel J.C. Chen, University of Tennessee Dimitri Ioannides, Southwestern Missouri State University Areas of Study & Policy 1.What is the optimal tourism 'carrying capacity' for the islands? 2.What strategies should be adopted to obtain a more even spread of the tourist season throughout the year? 3.What instruments are used to achieve sustainable tourism and limit congestion? Rachel J.C. Chen & Peter Billing CENTRE FOR REGIONAL AND TOURISM RESEARCH, DENMARK Purpose of Study 1. Develop and design an Island Tourism Multi-Dimensional Model (ITMDM) 2. Integrating quantitative models and qualitative techniques, inventory analyses, carrying capacity assessment, trend projections, and scenario analyses. 3. Estimate the economic, social, political as well as environmental impacts of tourism on island development

6. ©Dr. Rachel J.C. Chen Rachel J.C. Chen & Peter Billing CENTRE FOR REGIONAL AND TOURISM RESEARCH, DENMARK

7. ©Dr. Rachel J.C. Chen Rachel J.C. Chen & Peter Billing CENTRE FOR REGIONAL AND TOURISM RESEARCH, DENMARK

8. Spatial Association GeoStat, Business, Network, and Spatial analyses of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) –traffic flows, potential effect of visibility, trip characteristics, source allocations, demographics, economic and political activities, point and polygon data can be analyzed (Chen, 2002). Rachel J.C. Chen & Peter Billing CENTRE FOR REGIONAL AND TOURISM RESEARCH, DENMARK

9. ©Dr. Rachel J.C. Chen Rachel J.C. Chen & Peter Billing CENTRE FOR REGIONAL AND TOURISM RESEARCH, DENMARK

10. Economic Impact Analysis Both primary and secondary data An Input-Output (I/O) model An input-output model can describe the economic importance of an activity in terms of changes in total industry output, value added, labor income, and employment (Chen, Fu, and Brothers 2001). Rachel J.C. Chen & Peter Billing CENTRE FOR REGIONAL AND TOURISM RESEARCH, DENMARK

11. ©Dr. Rachel J.C. Chen Rachel J.C. Chen & Peter Billing CENTRE FOR REGIONAL AND TOURISM RESEARCH, DENMARK

12. Trend Analysis and Forecasting Models Short- and medium-term forecasts –establish strategic marketing plans. Such forecasts can provide valuable information for pricing, seasonal employment, and short- term budgeting. Long-run strategic plans and sustain the existing resources, –future infrastructure/business/customer needs, community development, new attractions and facilities/utilities, and future employment (Chen, Bloomfield, and Fu, 2003). (1) Naïve 1, (2) Naïve 2, (3) Holt Winter’s seasonal double exponential smoothing model, (4) Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model, and (5) Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). –mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square percentage error (RMSPE) (Chen et. al, 2003) Rachel J.C. Chen & Peter Billing CENTRE FOR REGIONAL AND TOURISM RESEARCH, DENMARK

13. ©Dr. Rachel J.C. Chen Rachel J.C. Chen & Peter Billing CENTRE FOR REGIONAL AND TOURISM RESEARCH, DENMARK

14. ©Dr. Rachel J.C. Chen Rachel J.C. Chen & Peter Billing CENTRE FOR REGIONAL AND TOURISM RESEARCH, DENMARK

15. ©Dr. Rachel J.C. Chen Rachel J.C. Chen & Peter Billing CENTRE FOR REGIONAL AND TOURISM RESEARCH, DENMARK

16. ©Dr. Rachel J.C. Chen Rachel J.C. Chen & Peter Billing CENTRE FOR REGIONAL AND TOURISM RESEARCH, DENMARK

17. Table 1. List of Suggested Variables [I] Sustainability[III] Accessibility Socio-cultural Indicators Political-Economic Indicators Physical – Ecological Indicators Other Factors Facility Network/Transportation Support Systems Types/Kinds of Tourists Languages Other Factors [II] Seasonality[IV] Qualitative Analyses Weather Types of Events/Festivals Support of Facilities, Policy Makers, and Residents Other Factors Perceptions of Island Policy Makers Perceptions of Residents Perceptions of Business Owners and/or Managers Rachel J.C. Chen & Peter Billing CENTRE FOR REGIONAL AND TOURISM RESEARCH, DENMARK

18. Table 2. Travel Spending of Bornholm 2003 Expenditure per day per person DKK Amount% distribution Ferry74.0112.00 Accommodation308.9550.08 Drinks & Beverages100.9616.37 Shopping52.798.56 Entertainment6.911.12 Souvenirs11.961.94 Transportation on Bornholm 7.91.28 Repair12.812.08 Sights17.752.88 Others22.853.70 Total616.89100.00 Rachel J.C. Chen & Peter Billing CENTRE FOR REGIONAL AND TOURISM RESEARCH, DENMARK

19. Conclusions Island Tourism Multi-Dimensional Model (ITMDM) will be investigated systematically and provide comprehensive results to demonstrate how this heterogeneous group of Islands Regions can be typologised and analyzed. Rachel J.C. Chen & Peter Billing CENTRE FOR REGIONAL AND TOURISM RESEARCH, DENMARK

20. Contact Information: Prof. Rachel J.C. Chen, Ph.D. rchen@utk.edu Peter Billing, Ph.D. billing@crt.dk Thank you for your attention!