1. Farrokh Alemi Ph.D. Defining Probability

3. Element Event Definition

4. Universe of possibilities Venn diagram Definition

5. What is probability? All possible events

6. What is probability? All possible events Event A

7. What is probability? Probability of A =

8. What is probability?

10. Law of Large Numbers

15. More Observations Less Error

16. Range of Probability

17. Odds

26. Probability as Opinion

28. Axiomatic Definition of Probability

29. 1. At least one event must happen Axiomatic Definition of Probability

30. 2. Probability is greater than or equal to zero Axiomatic Definition of Probability

31. 3. P(complement) is one minus P(Event) Axiomatic Definition of Probability

32. 4. P(two mutually exclusive events) is sum of each Axiomatic Definition of Probability

33. Opinions Like Probabilities

34. On a scale from 0 to 100, where 100 is for sure, how certain are you that medication errors will occur in next visit? Probability As Strength of Belief

35. Context for Study of Belief

36. Probability is the count of event divided by count of all possible events Take Home Lesson

37. In examining wrong side surgeries in our hospital, what are the elements, events and the universe of possibilities? Draw the Venn Diagram Do One