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Presented by: Steve Nivin, Ph.D. Please contact Steve Nivin with any questions or comments at snivin@saberinstitute.org or 210-517-3609. 2014 MID-YEAR ECONOMIC UPDATE SAN ANTONIO ECONOMY: STEADY AS SHE GOES Presented on: August 27, 2014
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2014 San Antonio Economic Forecast Employment growth of 2.5-3.0% 22,800-27,500 jobs Unemployment rate will decline to 4.8-5.0% 2
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Single family housing market is very strong in San Antonio and across Texas. 3 Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center Months in inventory measures how many months will take to sell the current inventory, based on the average number of sales per month in the previous year.
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Increases in home prices are indicative of a tight market. 4 Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D.
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Unemployment rate in San Antonio second lowest among major metropolitan economies in Texas Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 5
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Unemployment rate in San Antonio has been oscillating between 4.7% and 4.9% from April through July. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 6
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Unemployment rate in San Antonio has been below long-term average since Jan. 2014. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 7 Avg. unemployment rate since 2000 = 5.6%
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Growth trend since end of recession similar to growth pre-recession. Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D. 8
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Major metros and Texas showing solid growth through July 2014. Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D. 9
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Employment growth has come back to its long-term (since 1991) trend Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D. 10 Avg. annual employment growth in San Antonio since 1991 = 2.26%
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Employment growth in San Antonio was slower than some major metros in July but ahead of Dallas and the U.S. Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D. 11
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12 Employment growth in San Antonio continues to be broad-based. Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D.
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13 Financial activities showing strong growth and construction/mining picking up the pace Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D.
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14 Education/health and hospitality have been leading employment growth. Growth in professional services also starting to accelerate. Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D.
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15 Employment growth broad-based in Austin and being lead by other services, hospitality, professional services, and education/health sectors. Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D.
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16 Employment growth in Houston being propelled by construction/mining, education/health, hospitality, and professional services sectors. Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D.
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Summary Trends are on forecast…for the most part. Unemployment already at low end of forecast, so might see it go a bit lower. Employment growth slightly below forecast as of July, but optimistic economy will still reach at least lower end of forecast. 17
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Thank you!!! Questions? 18
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