1. The Transition to Digital Television Jérôme Adda University College London Marco Ottaviani London Business School

2. Talk Plan 1.Digital television 2.Business and public policy problem 3.Model 4.Data and results 5.Effects of policies on viewers’ incentives

3. From Analogue to Digital TV TV platforms: terrestrial, cable, satellite, broadband TV Benefits: digital compression technology allows more efficient use of bandwidth, by a factor of 6 Costs: investment in transmission equipment by broadcasters and in reception equipment by viewers Benefits and costs are unevenly distributed among players vary across platforms

4. Digital TV, EU Penetration

5. Coordination Problem Viewers’ incentives to migrate from analogue depend on: (i)benefits from additional digital channels (ii)cost of digital reception equipment (‘set top box’ = STB or integrated television sets & aerial upgrade) Broadcasters make channels available on digital platform if there are many digital viewers Manufacturers and retailers offer cheap digital equipment if many viewers demand it

6. Public Good Problem Broadcasting transmission is a ‘public good’: if one viewer is reached, all viewers are also reached at no additional cost [‘non rivalry’] So, bandwidth (satellite transponder space, terrestrial spectrum) can be freed up only if all analogue viewers have migrated to digital

7. UK: Digitisation of Platforms 50% BSkyB digitised satellite platform in 3 years Cable 2/3 digitised Digital Terrestrial (DTT) is progressing…

8. Business Policy In the UK: Satellite (pay TV) network run by BSkyB –Analogue only network up to 1998 –Digital & analogue ‘simulcasting’, 1998-2001 –Installed digital STB to all subscribers (free of charge) –Analogue signal switched off in 2001 Digital terrestrial –Pay operator (ITV Digital) subsidised digiboxes 1998- 2002, bankrupt 2002 –Now platform run by Freeview, subscription free

9. CableTerrestrialSatellite Interactivity +–– Portability –+– Bandwidth ++–+ Investmentideal for small catchment area ideal for medium-size catchment area ideal for large catchment area Comparison of Delivery Platforms

10. Talk Plan

11. Terrestrial TV: Public Policy DTT uses radio spectrum, a publicly owned resource – government act as “owner” and aims at solving economic coordination problem Social role of television [Public Service Broadcasting] Political importance of pluralism in media/information markets [legislation on concentration in media ownership] LIMITED SPECTRUMUNIVERSALITY

12. Terrestrial Spectrum Constraint Limited amount of spectrum [e.g., 368MHz in UK] that can be used for analogue & digital TV Population coverage of DTT [to 2/3] is limited until analogue switched off Power of DTT is limited until switch off, requiring often additional investment on antenna  Trade off between number of analogue and digital channels and population coverage

13. Digital Television Action Plan UK Government has declared intention to start to switch off analogue terrestrial signal between 2006 and 2010, with completion expected by 2012 By then, most consumers will need to have digital TVs or digital set-top boxes Achieving this “depends very much on how the broadcasters, manufacturers and consumers behave” First step is understanding what drives viewers

14. Talk Plan

15. Purpose of Model Model built to predict numbers of viewers who adopt different TV platforms over time depending on exogenous market and policy parameters Framework for considering policy effects

16. Illustration: Toy Example t=1,2 A & D available in t=1,2 Viewer with a t, benefit from analogue b t, incremental benefit from digital s t, cost of switching to digital Payoffs: AA: a 1 +δ a 2 AD: a 1 +δ (a 2 + b 2 – s 2 ) DD: a 1 + b 1 – s 1 + δ (a 2 + b 2 ) DD b1b1 b2b2 s1–δs2s1–δs2 s1s1 s2s2 AD AA

17. DD b1b1 b2b2 s1–δs2s1–δs2 s1s1 s2s2 AD AA Laissez Faire vs. First Best s 2 + (C D –C A ) t=1,2 A & D available in t=1,2 Free to air broadcaster C D cost of digital transmission C A cost of digital transmission Social payoffs: AA: a 1 – C A +δ (a 2 – C A ) AD: a 1 – C A +δ (a 2 + b 2 – s 2 – C D ) DD: a 1 + b 1 – s 1 – C D + δ (a 2 + b 2 – C D )

18. Model Assumptions Dynamic discrete choice model of individual adoptions of primary TV set, with comparison of –current cost of reception equipment –future viewing benefits Treat prices and expectations as exogenous Impose perfect foresight of future prices Allow probabilistic belief about switch off date Assume away network or learning externalities, but allows for experience curve in equipment prices

19. Viewers’ Decisions 1.Long-term choice of platform to adopt 2.Medium-term choice of package of channels 3.Short-term choice of channel to view Our model focuses on (1) & (2), where (1) is an ‘investment decision’ involving a switching cost

20. Instantaneous Preferences Viewer’s utility from package j in period t is X is vector of platform attributes p is vector of prices of each platform is preference shock with extreme value distribution, capturing idiosyncratic variation in consumer preferences

21. Dynamic Problem A viewer enters period t with platform i, and then chooses platform j from a choice set I t The value is defined recursively as: where c t (i,j) is cost of switching from platform i to j, with c t (i,i)=0

22. Two Phases 1.Post-switch phase (S): Analogue not available Stationary problem with value function V S (i, p, X) 2.Pre-switch phase (A): Viewers can choose analogue Viewers expect that analogue will be switched off in period t (conditional on not having been switched off earlier) with probability Value function is:

23. Talk Plan

24. Data Survey data with stated preferences for television by UK consumers 434 individuals’ choices in up to 40 different scenarios In total 16,010 observation

25. Heterogeneity of marginal utility for channels as function of household characteristics

26. Baseline Scenario

27. Talk Plan

28. Policy Alternatives A firm switch off date has been adopted in Berlin The UK has increased the number of channels available on the DTT platform as well as its coverage Subsidies to low-income have been given to low income households in Berlin Pay-television content might be made available on the French DTT platform Subsidies have been introduced in Italy Digital equipment has been mandated in the US

29. UK: September 1999 Announcement The Government is committed to ensuring that terrestrial analogue broadcasting signals are maintained until: Everyone who can currently get the main public service broadcasting channels in analogue form (BBC 1 and 2, ITV, Channel 4/S4C and Channel 5) can receive them on digital systems; Switching to digital is an affordable option for the vast majority of people; As a target indicator of affordability, 95% of consumers have access to digital equipment.

30. Timing Issue “The switch over process could start to happen as early as 2006 and be completed by 2010, depending on the progress made by broadcasters and manufactures, and the interests of consumers being served.” Question: What is the effect of credible announcement of switch off in 2010?

31. Firm Commitment to Switch off Simulations show that: Almost all viewers (more than 95%) will adopt digital TV before switch off, if they perceive switch off to be inevitable in 2010 Reason: Preference for television is very strong, so very few viewers will opt out of television to save the cost of set top box… Firm commitment to switch off date should work

32. Expectation of Early Switch Off Experiment v. Baseline: Switch off expected at T=10

33. Share of No Television

34. Conditional Switch off Policy With switch off conditional on meeting 95% criterion, multiple equilibria result. In one equilibrium, switch off takes place at T=10. In another equilibrium, there is no switch off at T=10. 1.The “switch off at T=10” equilibrium survives. 2.There is also a “no switch off at T=10” equilibrium in which consumers expect no switch off: –Given that consumers expect that analogue will not be switched off, (at least 5% of) consumers will not buy set top boxes –95% criterion will not be met at time of switch off –So, there will be no switch off

35. Other Policies If firm commitment to switch off is not politically feasible, other policies to speed up adoption: Increase quality of digital channels Give subsidies to STB Give coupons/rebates on TV licences to low- income families or old viewers

36. Increased DTT Quality

37. Launch of Free ‘Basic’ Satellite

38. Effect on consumer surplus of (expected) analogue switch off at different dates

39. Conclusion Focused on viewers incentives: 1.large switching costs  spontaneous adoption takes time 2.considerable fraction of “digital if pushed” who go for digital only if analogue is not available 3.very few “never digital” who prefer no TV to digital  expectations about switch off time are key 4.free DTT adds competition to pay TV market Caveat: Broadband/internet TV